# What happens after a Brexit vote?



## richy176 (Aug 7, 2013)

We have had a fairly friendly but robust debate about leave or stay but what do you think will happen when/if we vote to leave the EU.

The first step would be to invoke Article 50 which sets the clock ticking for negotiations and we have two years to reach agreement although this can be extended by agreement with the other 27 countries. Michael Gove has suggested that we should not immediately invoke Article 50 but start negotiations on the basis that we can invoke it at any time. Maybe the idea is to try for a better deal and then hold another referendum?

The Head of the WTO has said that once we left the EU we would no longer be covered by the Trade Agreements with 50+ countries negotiated by the EU and would have to negotiate new agreements. In the meantime we would obviously still be able to trade with other countries but could be forced to re-impose tariffs until the agreements are in place.

What do you think would happen at the 2020 general election is negotiations are still `in progress'. Would UKIP support dissolve on the basis that leaving the EU was their main platform? If we had a change of government would that set the negotiations back as they want have different objectives?

Would the hedge funds try and do a run on the pound to make a quick few millions/billions and if they succeed would interest rates have to jump?

Would the general public lose interest in the whole process after 2 years , 5 years etc and allow the Politicians to just quietly keep the status quo whilst saying `these things are complicated and take time to unravel'?

Not trying to start a new `In or Out' debate but simply views on what would happen after a Brexit vote and I am not trying to suggest it is all done and dusted.


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## Daveyboyz (Mar 9, 2016)

The two word answer is "who know's"

Whether we stay or go the political classes will try to take advantage and make money of the hard work of the general populace - this is simply how things work. They will probably use us leaving as a stick to beat us with... but at least we can vote them out (not sure how though since Tory are posh greedy fools and Labour are hypocritical fools and Liberals are proportional representation fools... it rather leaves nobody to vote for IMO)

The lawyers will make much money from the situation... and if they can extricate us from the mess that has been made, leave us unaccountable to future bailouts of the failing Euro countries and help put in place solid trade deals then they will be worth this money in the long term.

Make no mistake leaving is the path of most resistance, but is the correct path in my opinion. If we vote out I am not entirely convinced we will get our way, I have long held the Bilderburg pulls all the strings and holds all the power (money talks) and they clearly want us in. Destabilising the work force by increasing competition for jobs is very good news for the rich, as is reducing democracy. The people unified have some power but as can be seen from this whole referendum most people are not independent thinkers but just like lemmings following each other over the cliff. Today I had a post on social media saying "if you can't make up your mind look who is voting to remain - heres a list!" as if this is good reasoning to cast a ballot.


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## kevkojak (May 14, 2009)

Brexit won't happen (quote me), but if it did here's a list of what would change for Joe Public on the street;

Nothing.

If we stay in the EU as we are now, here's the impact it will have on our society;

None.

Ceasing EU membership might cause a little ripple of recession as new trade deals are struck but honestly nowt is gonna change. The money we save by not paying into the communal pot (about £8 billion) would gradually be offset by independent deals with trade partners (predominantly China, US and the EU conglomerate) as we lose our EU umbrella and the power to aggressively negotiate. Britain might have been a powerhouse once upon a time but we're a small fish these days.
Brexit might mean a better deal for UK agriculture but I'm struggling to see where else the UK benefits long term.

Bear in mind we've let France and China buy controlling stakes in our power infrastructure, I'm a bit worried about how much leverage we've given away to be honest. As nice as being out on our own sounds I think it's a terrible time to be considering it. I'm not well read on the pro's and con's but I'm certain the initial "savings" will be eaten up pretty rapidly.


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## Daveyboyz (Mar 9, 2016)

Kev, you have the view that the EU is a success then? That the Euro zone won't need more bail outs? I don't share those views, so for me we obviously will have advantage getting off a sinking ship.

If we stay in though I don't think we will be too popular, and we will have given green light for the acceleration of a quickly growing gravy train and federal Europe... if we leave we have the flip side (that we will get ripped off and they will tell us "its your fault cos you left"


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## apm101 (Jun 4, 2011)

I am personally pro EU, as I am quite cosmopolitan and like Europe. I have an inkling that Kev has a point though- I don't know how far it will affect the majority of us. I work in the NHS, so either way I doubt I will feel much in terms of effects. What does scare me is the peripheral impact...

My personal nightmare scenario is that Cameron is forced to resign in the wake of his failure, and Boris strongarms his way to the leadership of the Tories, and becomes PM. That man scares me...


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## hughlle (Aug 23, 2015)

Who knows what'll happen. That's bee the whole reason the campaigns have been such a joke.

And Brexit will happen (quote me) :rofl:


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## relaxer7 (Feb 18, 2016)

I'm in the out camp but don't think it will happen.


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## kevkojak (May 14, 2009)

Daveyboyz said:


> Kev, you have the view that the EU is a success then? That the Euro zone won't need more bail outs? I don't share those views, so for me we obviously will have advantage getting off a sinking ship.
> 
> If we stay in though I don't think we will be too popular, and we will have given green light for the acceleration of a quickly growing gravy train and federal Europe... if we leave we have the flip side (that we will get ripped off and they will tell us "its your fault cos you left"


 Not a success by any means, but I don't think it's as easy as jumping off a sinking ship - it's much like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted, I think we've already weathered the worst of the economic downturn, it seems daft leaving now.

There are one or two "problem" members (much like this forum) but if Greece default again I can only see them being slung out. The immigration issue is really no issue at all, again we've already had the mass influx, closing the borders to EU migrants now would make no difference whatsoever.

As little as five years ago an exit would have been beneficial. Today, I think it's probably a bad idea.

For what it's worth I'm still an undecided and frankly I'm still leaning towards an exit vote. However my brain is telling me that it's just a patriotic vote rather than a common sense one.


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## Daveyboyz (Mar 9, 2016)

I agree with you to some extent that migration issues won't be cured, but I believe maybe the problems will be slowed down (regarding housing, schools and not being able to see a GP etc)

I am taking the view its a one time offer... if we stay in we won't get another chance to leave (on that basis it doesn't matter if Turkey joins in 6 months, 6 years or 60, still an occurance that would have repurcusions)

I started off as a staunch leaver and this campaign plus listening to the remainers have made me more so.

In regards to Boris I would like Cameron to step down and be replaced by him. He did a better job as mayor than Ken in my opinion...I have watched his debate against Mary Beard on the Classical Greece vs Ancient Rome (shows how astounding his grasp of history is) and I just read his book "the Churchill Factor" - FACINATING. The guy comes across as a buffoon but it takes a wise man to play the fool. He isn't hard up and I take the view it is not all about him lining his pockets...unlike many others in his field.


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## richy176 (Aug 7, 2013)

Daveyboyz said:


> In regards to Boris I would like Cameron to step down and be replaced by him. He did a better job as major than Ken in my opinion...I have watched his debate against Mary Beard on the Classical Greece vs Ancient Rome (shows how astounding his grasp of history is) and I just read his book "the Churchill Factor" - FACINATING. The guy comes across as a buffoon but it takes a wise man to play the fool. He isn't hard up and I take the view it is not all about him lining his pockets...unlike many others in his field.


 I agree with your comments about Boris being very intelligent and not needing to `line his own pocket' but that really also applies to Cameron. My only concern about Boris is that I am not convinced that he is firmly in the leave camp.He was quite late in declaring where he stood and I suspect he was waiting to see which way the wind was blowing. Once it started to look like an exit vote was possible then he declared maybe on the basis that he would be the obvious person to lead the Conservatives.

My gut feeling is that Boris would be looking for a deal that would let him come back to the electorate saying "the EU has backed down and agreed x,y and z and I nor recommend we vote to stay in"


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## Caller. (Dec 8, 2013)

kevkojak said:


> There are one or two "problem" members (much like this forum) but if Greece default again I can only see them being slung out. The immigration issue is really no issue at all, again we've already had the mass influx, closing the borders to EU migrants now would make no difference whatsoever.


 That's quite an understatement. Spain is likely to have an anti-eu coalition at some stage and if Le Pen becomes French President next year - and the odds are shortening on that - that will in effect be game over. Meanwhile the eastern bloc are revolting, literally and God only knows what will happen in Austria, meanwhile the eu is planning even more expansion, which will see other waves of migrants. It's a complete and utter mess and being linked to that little lot isn't going to help dear old Blightey one little bit. We need to cut and run whilst we can!


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## richy176 (Aug 7, 2013)

Daveyboyz said:


> The two word answer is "who know's"


 That is the very reason I said "what do you think will happen". I would like to believe that voters have an idea of what they expect or hope to happen after the vote.

One thing that is certain is that on 24th June we will still be a full member of the EU and will continue to be so for at least two years. During that time I think the EU will try to increase the budget on the basis that the UK would not use our veto as we would not want to antagonise the other 27 countries we are negotiating with.

I would be interested to hear from some of our Scottish members about the follow on from their referendum There have been a few comments about Scotland not getting all that was promised during the referendum debate but is there much about this in the Scottish media and has the electorate more or less accepted the situation?


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## hughlle (Aug 23, 2015)

richy176 said:


> That is the very reason I said "what do you think will happen". I would like to believe that voters have an idea of what they expect or hope to happen after the vote.


 World war three. Obviously.

I don't expect anything. Anything could happen. I'm far too uneducated to comment on political decisions. Short term, I certainly see issues, long term, it can be nothing but a good thing imo. And despite what the remain group would have the world believe, I don't give a rats arse about Boris and co, I'm aligned with what I believe right for this country, I am not stooping to tactical voting as they say. I in no way think that an out vote will somehow make Boris a viable candidate for PM, that's just more of the same old fear we've been hearing for how long I forget. In or out the guy is still an affable buffoon. However right I think he is regarding the EU, i'd still never vote for him as a PM (but then I'd never vote for ay of them as a PM as they're all a bunch of [email protected])


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## Daveyboyz (Mar 9, 2016)

richy176 said:


> I would be interested to hear from some of our Scottish members about the follow on from their referendum There have been a few comments about Scotland not getting all that was promised during the referendum debate but is there much about this in the Scottish media and has the electorate more or less accepted the situation?


 I have made it quite clear I am a leaver, but the Scottish issues are certainly the best arguments I have heard from the remain side. If they had any sense (which I am not sure they don't from how they have run their campaign) they should be harping on about leaving not being fair on Scotland and how in that instance Scotland should be given another referendum in order to break away and remain part of the EU. 99% of the stuff remain have been saying I have a counter argument for but with that one I could only hold my hands up and say "You've got me, I have no answer to that... I don't want to lose our union with Scotland but would pay that price but it is certainly a huge negative if that happens"


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## Krispy (Nov 7, 2010)

kevkojak said:


> As little as five years ago an exit would have been beneficial. Today, I think it's probably a bad idea.


 My thinking is, what will it in mean in 5 years time if we remain?

We will be shackled to an undemocratic political and economic unit that is likely to see Greece, Spain and Italy go to the wall, maybe Ireland too. There is mass unemployment, amongst the young in particular, and what seems to be the beginnings of social collapse in many parts.

I think it's a folly to think we can achieve political, social and economic harmony with the mixture of funadamentally opposing member states that are already signed up, let alone the ones still queueing to gain entry.

From what I understand, there's no guarantee that the minuscule amount of renegotiating that Dave actually secured can't all be overturned by the eu courts anyway. Even if they aren't, they represent nothing like a reformed EU.

I truly believe that the risks of remaining in such an organisation far outweigh the risks of self determination.

If we vote to leave (and I don't believe the ruling classes will ever allow that to happen) we are in for a tough time in the short term, no one should think otherwise. But if we remain, I think it will mean the end of sovereign states in the long term, which I don't think is a good thing for our future generations.

What happens if we vote Brexit? I think they'll find a way to make us vote again until we give the answer they want us to...they have form for that after all.

If we do vote Brexit and we get away with it, I say we invade France. artytime:


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## SBryantgb (Jul 2, 2015)

It will be like this.... Well from the EU side it will be






I will take the time to answer more seriously because this is something I have been dwelling on.... I just don't have all my thoughts in line yet.


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## richy176 (Aug 7, 2013)

Daveyboyz said:


> I have made it quite clear I am a leaver, but the Scottish issues are certainly the best arguments I have heard from the remain side. If they had any sense (which I am not sure they don't from how they have run their campaign) they should be harping on about leaving not being fair on Scotland and how in that instance Scotland should be given another referendum in order to break away and remain part of the EU. 99% of the stuff remain have been saying I have a counter argument for but with that one I could only hold my hands up and say "You've got me, I have no answer to that... I don't want to lose our union with Scotland but would pay that price but it is certainly a huge negative if that happens"





Krispy said:


> My thinking is, what will it in mean in 5 years time if we remain?
> 
> We will be shackled to an undemocratic political and economic unit that is likely to see Greece, Spain and Italy go to the wall, maybe Ireland too. There is mass unemployment, amongst the young in particular, and what seems to be the beginnings of social collapse in many parts.
> 
> ...


 I have absolutely 100% respect for both of your views. I may agree or disagree with what you have said but at least you have both looked at the issues and have an opinion on what will happen if we vote to leave or stay.

Initially I had planned to show links to the Financial Time, The Economist and a few other publications that had articles supporting both sides but found that by looking at the articles a couple of times I had to subscribe to look again and publish the link to those articles.


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## mtysox (May 15, 2016)

I found this article pop up on my news feed: http://nr.news-republic.com/Web/ArticleWeb.aspx?regionid=4&articleid=66584675


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## Stan (Aug 7, 2003)

Let's just get it over with, once its decided we have to take care of our kids, mortgages and the weekly shopping.

I'm not inspired or inflamed, I'm just getting bored. :wink:


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## Biker (Mar 9, 2013)

If we remain, we will be royally butt f8cked by the EU commission, Dave's renegotiation amounted to nothing that can't be ignored by Brussels and they will see us as a powerless benefactor and we will be even more milk and honey for them.

The Scottish issue is on it's arse as the proposed Scottish economy was based on the oil revenues and the vast majority of the promises have been delivered, and those that haven't are apparently in the pipeline, they are the trivial ones anyway. On brexit Scotland should petition for its own immigration control anyway.

As was previously indicated by the EU commission had already said, despite Salmonds insistence, that entry into the EU for an independent Scotland was not automatic because there are lots of criteria to be met upon entry for new nations, not least of which was currency.


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## Caller. (Dec 8, 2013)

apm101 said:


> I am personally pro EU, as I am quite cosmopolitan and like Europe.


 Well it will still be there, whether we stay or go, you will still be able to visit just as you always have. Can't see this being a reason for not leaving.


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## SBryantgb (Jul 2, 2015)

Well no one guessed this (maybe you did I didn't go back and read all the posts)

EU unveils post Brexit plans


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## Guest (Jun 27, 2016)

SBryantgb said:


> Well no one guessed this (maybe you did I didn't go back and read all the posts)
> 
> EU unveils post Brexit plans


 if that is true i think it will be the end of the EU


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## richy176 (Aug 7, 2013)

SBryantgb said:


> Well no one guessed this (maybe you did I didn't go back and read all the posts)
> 
> EU unveils post Brexit plans


 My initial reaction was that this was just a paintshop joke and I went online top double check. I do apologise for doing so but it just sounds such a stupid idea given the level of demands for a referendum in other EU countries. Like Bruce, I feel this would kill the whole EU project although there is a chance it could lead to changes in member state governments and a return to the basics of a common market without all the political bits.


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## Nigelp (Jan 28, 2015)

As per Mr Gove, take control of Sovereignty via a unilateral UK Act of Parliament, re-instating domestic Legal precedent over EU Law. Then invoke said Article and employ the requisite legal experts. The rest will take place via natural market forces perhaps?


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## richy176 (Aug 7, 2013)

Nigelp said:


> As per Mr Gove, take control of Sovereignty via a unilateral UK Act of Parliament, re-instating domestic Legal president over EU Law. Then invoke said Article and employ the requisite legal experts. The rest will take place via natural market forces perhaps?


 Nigel - would that have any legal basis IF the various treaties that we have signed give the ultimate power to EU courts?


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## Nigelp (Jan 28, 2015)

Or in less legalistic terms, this explains the situation which we are working on the ensure we have the requisite control before we do anything. Its a matter of due process. The main aspect to be considered legally, by us, is to ensure should there be any action we can proceed in a case of Ultra Vires. Most of all don't worry. It is certainly all being dealt with I'm sure :yes: . http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683431/Sovereignty-Christmas-Britain-claw-back-powers-Euro-courts-within-months-Brexit


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## Nigelp (Jan 28, 2015)

We are probably also dependent on German Lawyers to help us hence their acceptance of the fact we are in receipt of their support in our exit strategy. Brussels is perhaps the Treasury which will need to meet the cost of the German and British Lawyers. Hence their haste to reduce the costs. Each piece of the puzzle. As they say. All will come to pass. :thumbsup:


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## SBryantgb (Jul 2, 2015)

richy176 said:


> My initial reaction was that this was just a paintshop joke and I went online top double check. I do apologise for doing so but it just sounds such a stupid idea given the level of demands for a referendum in other EU countries. Like Bruce, I feel this would kill the whole EU project although there is a chance it could lead to changes in member state governments and a return to the basics of a common market without all the political bits.


 It makes perfect sense to me. Most of the EU member states goverments are fully aware of what the EU is and wants to become, and it's pretty much as this article sums it up. And they have all agreed to follow this path. This really isn't news to them.

So what is the real goal here? Was this leaked on purpose? I think it was.

This is purposely designed to make everyone think they have gone too far... It will lead to an announcements from EU heads of state that this is intorlerable, and that they won't allow it. Wow think the people ... they are really on our side after all :thumbsup:

The EU then makes backing down noises.

Phew everyone relaxes. Dam wern't we lucky ... it's a good thing our leaders stepped up to the plate :yes:

People move on and it's business as usual. A few more EU regulations/treaties/ or whatever they are can them be quietly handed down and agreed by the various goverments. So the next time any dissent is heard it will be to late.

Job done, now lets all sing our national anthem


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## Guest (Jun 27, 2016)

SBryantgb said:


> It makes perfect sense to me. Most of the EU member states goverments are fully aware of what the EU is and wants to become, and it's pretty much as this article sums it up. And they have all agreed to follow this path. This really isn't news to them.
> 
> So what is the real goal here? Was this leaked on purpose? I think it was.
> 
> ...


 some will shout "Paranoia" others will say paranoia is the highest form of awareness


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## SBryantgb (Jul 2, 2015)

Bruce said:


> some will shout "Paranoia" others will say paranoia is the highest form of awareness


 I wasn't aware of that :thumbsup:


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## xellos99 (Dec 17, 2015)

Not the end of the world,

The UK is still part of : NATO, UN, Commonwealth, The council of Europe, G20, G7/G8 and many others I expect.

The EU is just sour because a country gave its people a referendum.


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## Biker (Mar 9, 2013)

I always had secret fears of a Euro superstate, it won't work, look at Russia, they had to bully and murder to keep the superstate in place.

@xellos99 Spot on sir, it isn't the EU that has held post war peace, it is NATO.


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