# Want an AP? Federico on the Bubble



## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/gTJHU_14A-Y?feature=oembed


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

It was inevitable that hyped watches would fall in value at some point. Treating stainless steel watches with little intrinsic value as a trading asset class, with every chancer, peddler, huckster and wideboy jumping on the bandwagon, was always going to end in tears...for some at least.

Federico kept saying there was no crash, just a correction. But the grey market is awash with stock and don't forget in a falling market the more it falls and as it falls below purchase price the more traders and flippers want or need to sell (especially if they're borrowed to raise cash to buy) and the more unsold stock that gets dumped for a quick sale, the more prices fall.

I wouldn't be surprised if in due course many used Rolexes, APs, Pateks go back to trading below new retail price, which remember was how it was until recently. For those with a genuine interest in watches as watches, rather than an investment hedge, that can only be a good thing.


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

Looking at prices of the hot models, they have reached insane levels , but the likes of watch master are discounting the inflated prices every week now. I do believe a lot of speculators are going to get their fingers burnt.

It does look like there are more coming up for sale on forums, interesting times ahead


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## No time to tell (Jun 6, 2021)

I don't know what the opinions of AP and Patek are but there has been a lot of negativity written/spoken about Rolex recently and I feel that most of it is because of the grey market (or has visiting a Rolex AD always been unpleasant?). That negativity can't off been doing much good to their reputation so the correction is probably beneficial to the company's as well. Or am I just ridiculously naive?


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

No time to tell said:


> has visiting a Rolex AD always been unpleasant?


 The pleasant ones seem to have had their AD status removed.



neil wickham said:


> I do believe a lot of speculators are going to get their fingers burnt.


 With the greatest sincerity, I hope so.


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## Rotundus (May 7, 2012)

Holy crap, the next thing you know Audi will fit indicators to their cars !!!

:tongue:


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

I think there will be a rebalancing out there. When watches are basically used as stocks, they will behave like them.

The massively hyped pieces will go down in value to a new level, the pieces that were just ticking along at a 'sensible' level won't drop much if at all.

basically if you bought Daytonas or Tiffany's at a stupid level, well you're going to get taught the Darwin Theory real quick. If you bought a watch at MSRP you're not going to lose out because there is still the demand and disposable income from enough people to be able to sell them for at least MSRP.

interesting (and nervy) times ahead for a lot of people


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Despite my recent purchase of a Sea Dweller (which I will never sell) for a ridiculous price, I hope that the market does go back to the days when you could buy a newish sub for 20% less than rrp. It will give the enthusiast more opportunity to buy the watch which tickles his fancy. I liked the comment which went something like "if you just bought a Pepsi for $25k, you are going to get a pimp slap" :yes: (or something like that. It's more than 5 minutes since I heard the comment so it's fading fast.)


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

chas g said:


> Despite my recent purchase of a Sea Dweller (which I will never sell) for a ridiculous price, I hope that the market does go back to the days when you could buy a newish sub for 20% less than rrp. It will give the enthusiast more opportunity to buy the watch which tickles his fancy. I liked the comment which went something like "if you just bought a Pepsi for $25k, you are going to get a pimp slap" :yes: (or something like that. It's more than 5 minutes since I heard the comment so it's fading fast.)


 Dont think we will ever get to the point of below MSRP on Rolex, they know how to play the game too well, and i think there are far too many people invested in this game, whether they are looking to buy or currently holding stock.

TBH im not even sure i want the scenario of flippers/greys losing out big time....because if that happens, then i can only see it occuring as a result of a large financial crash...so we will all lose out.

It would be nice though to get to a pre pandemic/ 2016-17 level where you can get a watch for MSRP at your AD without having to wait more than 6 months or spend thousands on jewellry....or if you were inpatient then pay a couple of grand over retail, not multiples of the MSRP price.

Things have gotten utterly silly over the last few years. I agree with the logic that 'cheap' money is ending, inflation is on the up so those who have leveraged themselves to the eye balls will be holding a hot potatoe that noone wants, but those who have been in this game long term like the established watch dealers will come out of this fine.

Hopefully this will just cool the watch market so it takes those flippers who have used watches as a short term investment out of the hobby.


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## SolaVeritate (Mar 21, 2021)

\o/ Yey! more watches for me!

Well.. no.. not really. Still can't afford any of the buggers!

It's the watch investors that will be hit most IF the bubble really bursts (same as any speculation really) the smaller tier investors will get humped. Those with a couple or a few watches sitting in a safe (amounting to a couple of % of their total investment) will just sit on it and not worry much. Those with 20%-30% will lose.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

SolaVeritate said:


> \o/ Yey! more watches for me!
> 
> Well.. no.. not really. Still can't afford any of the buggers!
> 
> It's the watch investors that will be hit most IF the bubble really bursts (same as any speculation really) the smaller tier investors will get humped. Those with a couple or a few watches sitting in a safe (amounting to a couple of % of their total investment) will just sit on it and not worry much. Those with 20%-30% will lose.


 Which is why ive always said watches are an asset not an investment. Theyre a nice thing to have if you need to liquidate an item into cash (much easier than a car or house) but they arent garenteed to go up in value. The value in the watch is the enjoyment you get from it.

As you say its investors that will be hit....but hey thats part of investing!...whether its stocks and shares, watches, houses etc. nothing is risk free.


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## tick-tock-tittle-tattle (Aug 4, 2018)

I wonder how many people bought Rolex Hulk, Kermit, Batman, OP's etc, etc at super high inflated prices thinking they would only get higher in value.

Whenever the sh!t hits the fan in the economy it's funny how many Rolex watches go up for sale.

I was quite happy to tell my brother in law that he hadn't looked after his GMT well enough (22 years without a service), and that Watchfinder wouldn't even give him a price for it as they had too many on their books.

Hopefully we are heading back to normality, I class the losses that I make on watches as the cost of enjoying a beautiful watch, if I make a profit then that is just a nice bit of *luck *as nothing I have ever bought was as an investment.

















A muppet if you paid silly money for one of these


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

The "correction" for Rolex started last year. Once word got out that the child-crayon-dialled OPs were to be short lived, they became the speculators focus and I spoke to a few secondary market sellers who said they were "getting partially out of the game" to quote one after having stock collect dust in their windows. A local dealer I found out sold a Submariner for £9000 that they paid £12,000 for !?!? Hmmmmm. Rolex don't care about their "brand image" but they do care about their AD network and their "future pipeline". The ludicrous releases of this year for Rolex clearly showed that they are focusing on upping production on desirable watches by "releasing" watches that pretty much no-one will want. If you look at the current Rolex offering it's not bloated and offers no thrills. So I suspect waiting times will down throughout this year and stock back in ADs 23/24.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

tick-tock-tittle-tattle said:


> I wonder how many people bought Rolex Hulk, Kermit, Batman, OP's etc, etc at super high inflated prices thinking they would only get higher in value.
> 
> Whenever the sh!t hits the fan in the economy it's funny how many Rolex watches go up for sale.
> 
> ...


 Oh plenty of people will get their fingers burned over all this, but there will also be plenty of people waiting to pick up the pieces. I suspect a lot of people will lose a lot of money in this and the long term collectors who have just sat on their hands not willing to pay silly money will be there wish cash to pick up the pieces at knock down prices.

Of course, if you bought at silly prices and intend to keep the watch for decades that doesnt apply, you were just unfortunate to have to pay more for the watch you want, but then again does it matter? if you love it, then the price per wear wont affect you.



JonnyOldBoy said:


> The "correction" for Rolex started last year. Once word got out that the child-crayon-dialled OPs were to be short lived, they became the speculators focus and I spoke to a few secondary market sellers who said they were "getting partially out of the game" to quote one after having stock collect dust in their windows. A local dealer I found out sold a Submariner for £9000 that they paid £12,000 for !?!? Hmmmmm. Rolex don't care about their "brand image" but they do care about their AD network and their "future pipeline". The ludicrous releases of this year for Rolex clearly showed that they are focusing on upping production on desirable watches by "releasing" watches that pretty much no-one will want. If you look at the current Rolex offering it's not bloated and offers no thrills. So I suspect waiting times will down throughout this year and stock back in ADs 23/24.


 Yeh i think youre correct over the supply side, i still dont think rolex are going to produce that many more watches than they have in the past, but in the last year or 2 supply has suffered, whilst demand has grown because of all the cheap money around. I see in the next 6 months or so a supply increase and demand decrease.

Whilst i think youre right about 'ludicrous releases' people will lose their mind over the new LHD GMT...its an utterly stupid watch but will probably be a short run thing and insanely collectable....as stupid as an upside down pepsi, coloured green is.


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

tick-tock-tittle-tattle said:


> A muppet if you paid silly money for one of these


 And then wears it as his beater work watch.










:biggrin:

As for the original post, expert , YouTube............And not forgetting @JonnyOldBoy and his extensive group of expert mates blah blah blah blah same old same old.

I didn't even watch it.

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:

Times may be hard but only for some, but I suspect mainly middle of the road people mortgaged up on a grossly overvalued pile of bricks and morter, couple of rented mid level Merc/Audi/BMW, on the drive, 2.4 spoiled sproggs and living on credit and credit cards.

Meanwhile there's still money about, even on a backwater Teesside industrial estate round the corner last week there was getting on for probably £1.5M quids worth of high end cars getting pampered and serviced.


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

BondandBigM said:


> And then wears it as his beater work watch.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 Well, if the flexers need to sell their Rolex or AP to pay next month's mortgage for their home that the bank actually owns, or the next instalment on their leased Audi that the finance company actually owns, I'm prepared to pay anything up to £32.10 for a used one with box and papers. If it's mint, I could stretch to maybe £34.85 absolute maximum :thumbs_up:

:laugh: :laugh:


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WickerBill said:


> i still dont think rolex are going to produce that many more watches than they have in the past,


 They have said as much ... so make a few weird watches for the speculators this year, and ramp up the numbers of their core models ... Just spoke to another local AD and they "are no longer buying in nearly new unworn Rolex" , they will only buy pre 2010 models with full set. Last year they had loads of 2019/2020 pre-owned in their window at stupid prices [ they are not a Rolex AD and are in a city without a Rolex AD ] , I did not ask , but I have a feeling they got stung. They all disappeared sharpish so I am guessing they were not sold from the shop but offloaded on the Wholesale watch market... a rudimentary scan are the inter-web and indeed is does appear the UK grey Rolex market for new models is indeed now sat on shifting sands....


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

tick-tock-tittle-tattle said:


> Whenever the sh!t hits the fan in the economy it's funny how many Rolex watches go up for sale.


 It's funny that I have just realised that all the Rolex owners I know personally on a friendly basis are in the building/construction industry, and every time there's been a dump in trade/recession, their watches have been away for a "prolonged service". :laughing2dw: I remember in 2007/8 a dealer I know, couldn't afford to buy any more Subs, or similar, off construction industry related owners, he had been offered too many. I've noticed things slowing down over the last 2 to 3 weeks, and one of the local national big watch/jewelry retailers window display is an embarrassment of empty spaces. However, it's not just watches, most things are beginning to show signs of slowing down as prices increase across the board for necessities. Dentists and Vets are doing OK.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

RTM Boy said:


> Well, if the flexers need to sell their Rolex or AP to pay next month's mortgage


 A lot of Rolex speculators have been paying with Bitcoin which incredibly many took out loans to buy [ you could not make this up really ]. Bitcoin is tanking with some commentators saying the leveraged positions for some Bitcoin speculators is "horrific" ..... It depends how far in the do-do some of those numpties are and how many there are but that could accelerate any "unwinding" of the ridiculous watch market place .....


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

Rotundus said:


> Holy crap, the next thing you know Audi will fit indicators to their cars !!!
> 
> :tongue:


 Optional extra -- part of a longish list. :yes:


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> A lot of Rolex speculators have been paying with Bitcoin which incredibly many took out loans to buy [ you could not make this up really ]. Bitcoin is tanking with some commentators saying the leveraged positions for some Bitcoin speculators is "horrific" ..... It depends how far in the do-do some of those numpties are and how many there are but that could accelerate any "unwinding" of the ridiculous watch market place .....


 Jeez bitcoin is tanking?? @ £25k plus. One and only time i dabbled it was trading at £8k, how i wish id held on, but at least i only lost a couple hundred not my shirt


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

neil wickham said:


> Jeez bitcoin is tanking?? @ £25k plus. One and only time i dabbled it was trading at £8k, how i wish id held on, but at least i only lost a couple hundred not my shirt


 As with so much, it depends what price you purchased a speculative commodity.

A month ago the etherial empty nothingness that is Bitcoin was trading at £33k, so is down a mere quarter since mid-April. Just a minor blip, I'm sure. 

Since I've had no takers for my generous offer of £30+ for anyone desperate to sell their Rolex, so I'm willing to trade an NFT in exchange instead. I made it myself out of thin air and electricity, and I've decided it's worth at least a thousand times the cash I have, but I'll discount it to £30,000 if anyone is really hard up.

It's key features are that it's a token, and it isn't fungible, which I'm sure you agree makes it's great value :thumbs_up: NB: one token per Rolex owner only. Please don't ask for more as refusal may offend.

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

From another slant, the bloke that paid £80K for the Ford Focus even though he already has another identical Focus in his garage or one of the car salesmen I spoke to at the weekend was given me a look round his Bentley and mentioned he had already just spent nearly £200 on petrol in four days. He had some sort of big chunky bling on his wrist, I didn't get a close look at and didn't have glasses but all be it a bit blurry it had a look of an AP.

Do you really think these sort of guys care or are even bothered about dropping a couple or three grand on a watch, probably not.

I have a feeling there are plenty of that sort and they'll just move on to the next fad and chuck last year's fad in a drawer. As for business they may well have had their fingers burnt but hey ho that happens all the time in all sorts of businesses. As for those struggling to keep up with the Jones and are taking a bath flogging off their luxury goods, bitcoin dogcon or whatever the latest non existing thing is they deserve all the get.

Are you ready for it ???

"I've spent more on V&RB"

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:

I can't help thinking some people live in some sort of twilight world detached from reality.


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## AlwaysAlba (Jan 27, 2021)

I sold my 2011 Rolex Deepsea last year and received around £1500 more than what I paid for it. I used a reputable company and got paid immediately with no risk. In my case I swapped a bigger profit for ease and security of transaction.

When I sold it, I realised that was the end of my Rolex ownership and even allowing for a recent reduction in the crazy selling price, they are still...... well, crazy.

And I no longer care enough for the brand to be bothered to go through the hassle of trying to get another one at retail. I now tend to see Rolex as an entry point for some but the more you learn about watches, the more you learn there are far more interesting and reputable brands at price points well below Rolex.

Federico is right in what he says but in the short term, I cannot see demand falling below supply and whilst some are currently getting burnt, there will be plenty of other "investors" ready to take their place.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

AlwaysAlba said:


> Federico is right in what he says but in the short term, I cannot see demand falling below supply


 This is what is fascinating ... there is a parallel situation with that : DvS on grey market stock [ estimated at around 300-500K pieces currently on inventories of grey markets ] , and DvS on AD Virgin stock ... The horror story for the speculators and Grey dealers is the situation whereby stock starts returning to ADs [ or at least wait time are weeks not months ] plus at the same time people who hold grey stock they paid a lot for need to unload quickly. The last part is key , a lot of the grey market is leveraged holdings ... many of these people owe as much as they hold ... The hilarious contemporary Rolex story, which lets face it, was driven by pure greed could be about to demonstrate the obvious to us sane people ....


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> They have said as much ... so make a few weird watches for the speculators this year, and ramp up the numbers of their core models ... Just spoke to another local AD and they "are no longer buying in nearly new unworn Rolex" , they will only buy pre 2010 models with full set. Last year they had loads of 2019/2020 pre-owned in their window at stupid prices [ they are not a Rolex AD and are in a city without a Rolex AD ] , I did not ask , but I have a feeling they got stung. They all disappeared sharpish so I am guessing they were not sold from the shop but offloaded on the Wholesale watch market... a rudimentary scan are the inter-web and indeed is does appear the UK grey Rolex market for new models is indeed now sat on shifting sands....


 This is starting to tie in with the Rolex 'Approved Used' rumour where Rolex ADs will be able to get pre owned watches approved and certified by Rolex aslong as they are pre 2010 and/ or of a previous generation.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WickerBill said:


> This is starting to tie in with the Rolex 'Approved Used' rumour where Rolex ADs will be able to get pre owned watches approved and certified by Rolex aslong as they are pre 2010 and/ or of a previous generation.


 I wonder if Casio will ever go down the "approved used" route !?!? :thumbsup:


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> This is what is fascinating ... there is a parallel situation with that : DvS on grey market stock [ estimated at around 300-500K pieces currently on inventories of grey markets ] , and DvS on AD Virgin stock ... The horror story for the speculators and Grey dealers is the situation whereby stock starts returning to ADs [ or at least wait time are weeks not months ] plus at the same time people who hold grey stock they paid a lot for need to unload quickly. The last part is key , a lot of the grey market is leveraged holdings ... many of these people owe as much as they hold ... The hilarious contemporary Rolex story, which lets face it, was driven by pure greed could be about to demonstrate the obvious to us sane people ....


 I'm not sure I see a situation where Rolex, combined with flippers offloading will meet the demands of those customers waiting, but the interesting part will be how long greys will wait before selling watches at a loss….they need turnover and with margins quite slim it wouldn't take too long in this perfect storm to really affect them. It's probably why the likes of Watchfinder stopped buying 'hype' pieces a while back.



JonnyOldBoy said:


> I wonder if Casio will ever go down the "approved used" route !?!? :thumbsup:


 Hahaha well I still have my first swatch watch from when I was a kid, it's quite collectible now so you never know!


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

So it's a choice :-

@BondandBigM " can't help thinking some people live in some sort of twilight world detached from reality"

whereas @JonnyOldBoy is in the "could be about to demonstrate the obvious to us sane people " camp.

I know where I stand but I am going to pick the sane people option?


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

chas g said:


> So it's a choice :-
> 
> @BondandBigM " can't help thinking some people live in some sort of twilight world detached from reality"
> 
> ...


 As ever the truth is probably somewhere in between :laughing2dw:


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

WickerBill said:


> This is starting to tie in with the Rolex 'Approved Used' rumour where Rolex ADs will be able to get pre owned watches approved and certified by Rolex aslong as they are pre 2010 and/ or of a previous generation.


 Would be interesting to see where Rolex prices approved used models, probaly even higher than dealers


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

neil wickham said:


> Would be interesting to see where Rolex prices approved used models, probaly even higher than dealers


 ADs don't want watches sat in windows for months or years .... my guess is that they would be priced to sell .... or shall we say , "offers would be accepted". The venture would not be about making money , it would be about getting foot fall back into their network so that that can make money. Thats my take.


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> ADs don't want watches sat in windows for months or years .... my guess is that they would be priced to sell .... or shall we say , "offers would be accepted". The venture would not be about making money , it would be about getting foot fall back into their network so that that can make money. Thats my take.


 Reasonably priced would mean increased footfall and sales for sure, guarnteed all genuine parts so no bitsas. Wonder if they would be serviced and refinished, if so how would they deal with the originality demand from some customers


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

neil wickham said:


> Would be interesting to see where Rolex prices approved used models, probaly even higher than dealers


 Yeh this is the bit that confuses me.

i can't see them being lower than 'market price' at grey dealers because no one will sell to ADs at a lower price (unless there's a perk of getting a new watch quicker).

i can only see them being sold at a higher price because they are 'approved used' rather like at a manufacturer car dealership. But if it's too high then people won't buy.



JonnyOldBoy said:


> ADs don't want watches sat in windows for months or years .... my guess is that they would be priced to sell .... or shall we say , "offers would be accepted". The venture would not be about making money , it would be about getting foot fall back into their network so that that can make money. Thats my take.


 Yes but ADs aren't Rolex…..they still have to make money, so even 'priced to sell' would mean they have to make a profit….


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WickerBill said:


> Yes but ADs aren't Rolex…..they still have to make money, so even 'priced to sell' would mean they have to make a profit….


 There are three ways to make money when accepting a trade in and selling a new watch. They refer to it as the "margin see-saw". Bearing in mind that Grey nearly new prices are leaving tens of thousands of watches stuck in inventories not exactly selling fast ... it would not take a complicated algorithm for ADs to start hoovering up secondary sales .... :thumbsup:


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> There are three ways to make money when accepting a trade in and selling a new watch. They refer to it as the "margin see-saw". Bearing in mind that Grey nearly new prices are leaving tens of thousands of watches stuck in inventories not exactly selling fast ... it would not take a complicated algorithm for ADs to start hoovering up secondary sales .... :thumbsup:


 yup there is that.

will be interesting to see how it shakes out!


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Interesting. Watchfinder are reducing prices substancially, and lets be honest they are always priced higher than others.

2 weeks ago Daytonas were at £50000, now theyre at £35000.... the question is, did they buy them for £30000 so still have a bit of profit in there or at £40000 and are now making a loss?

I think now is a good time to sit back and watch whats going on....not that i can afford a Daytona at 11k never mind 35 lol

Rolex Daytona 116500 LN Watch | Watchfinder & Co.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

Interesting. I noticed in the local "Chuckie shop"today, prices on all Rolex are down. Still overpriced, but down.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

WRENCH said:


> Interesting. I noticed in the local "Chuckie shop"today, prices on all Rolex are down. Still overpriced, but down.


 Yup. Question is, how far will they fall. All down to supply and demand at the end of the day. Just depends on how many people get nervous and supply the market….


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

WickerBill said:


> All down to supply and demand


 Indeed.

Funny how demand drains away faster than water through sand when prices start to plummet...the hallmark of a speculative asset bubble. Then it's "...sell, sell, sell...!!!"

"That's not right - how can the price be going down!?"

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/obAoPP1bdIM?feature=oembed


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

Thing is as prices are tumbling and it's clearly visible to anyone who is online, and a potential recession looming, is anybody, well mortals at least, going to buy in a falling market?


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

neil wickham said:


> Thing is as prices are tumbling and it's clearly visible to anyone who is online, and a potential recession looming, is anybody, well mortals at least, going to buy in a falling market?


 That depends on your disposable income I suppose. To some a Rolex is a grail, to others it's pocket money.

there will always be those with the money to take advantage and pick up the pieces


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

WickerBill said:


> That depends on your disposable income I suppose. To some a Rolex is a grail, to others it's pocket money.
> 
> there will always be those with the money to take advantage and pick up the pieces


 Vitally it also depends on sentiment.

I'd venture much of the money used to buy Rolexes around the world is from shares, stock, property, and cryptocurrencies profits. When not only cryptocurrencies, stocks, shares, but also house prices fall, sentiment deteriorates rapidly.

More importantly, what proportion of Rolex purchases has been from so-called investors, traders, and flippers looking to make a quick buck out of 'ever rising values'? Now those values are falling along with other over-priced assets. So, a major slug of the demand cake goes for a Burton.

Overlay the pressure on disposable income by the sharply-rising cost of living - rising mortgage (falling house prices), credit card and loan rates, petrol, gas, electric, transport, food even - that will impact even those whose "pocket money" that is (was) quite good. What proportion of people can justify the purchase of a Rolex, even at SRP (eg £10k), to their spouse/family when your energy DD doubles overnight, your mortgage alone is up £250 p/m already and there's talk of redundancies in the office?

And no assumptions can be made about those who despite all this still have cash. If Rolex prices are falling, why would they buy - at least until they are confident the market has bottomed out? Who knows, used prices might go back to being below SRP, so anyone clever and sensible enough to still have lots of ready cash (that's how they got the cash in the first place) will wait... Another rug pulled from under the demand house of cards.

Who's left? The teeny tiny proportion of the population that is uber rich - like whoever won the Euromillions the other night...and Elton John :laugh: :laugh:

Time may well show Rolex SA to be even more clever than anyone has given them credit for by insisting it would not increase production to 'meet demand'. It's stated reasons might not be whole story - perhaps they saw this coming... :hmmm9uh:


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Out of interest, having read the posts here, I looked on Chrono24 today for a 43mm Rolex Sea Dweller anniversary model (with red writing on the dial). I filtered the results to include those watches with box and papers in the European Union/UK only. The search brought up 106 watches which included a mixture of deep sea sea dwellers and sea dwellers. The asking price of all of the 43mm sea dwellers was more than I paid on April 6th for the one I bought in mint condition with box, papers and a partridge in a pear tree. :yes:

As I said to the 1st Mate "I can't see any effing icebergs, tell the band to keep playing" :teethsmile:


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

RTM Boy said:


> Vitally it also depends on sentiment.
> 
> I'd venture much of the money used to buy Rolexes around the world is from shares, stock, property, and cryptocurrencies profits. When not only cryptocurrencies, stocks, shares, but also house prices fall, sentiment deteriorates rapidly.
> 
> ...


 yup well put. I suppose we're about to find out!!!!! I'm currently waiting for an explorer. I know there were a few dozen in the queue ahead of me so if I get it sometime soon we will know how many are speculators.

i disagree on one small part though, not all Rolex owners are Uber rich. I'm certainly not, but I've worked hard and saved up to get a watch I love and will hold onto



chas g said:


> Out of interest, having read the posts here, I looked on Chrono24 today for a 43mm Rolex Sea Dweller anniversary model (with red writing on the dial). I filtered the results to include those watches with box and papers in the European Union/UK only. The search brought up 106 watches which included a mixture of deep sea sea dwellers and sea dwellers. The asking price of all of the 43mm sea dwellers was more than I paid on April 6th for the one I bought in mint condition with box, papers and a partridge in a pear tree. :yes:
> 
> As I said to the 1st Mate "I can't see any effing icebergs, tell the band to keep playing" :teethsmile:


 I think it depends on the model. For now it seems it's the over inflated hype pieces that rose quickly…too quickly. Pieces like the seadweller have just been ticking along which is healthy growth so I suspect you'll be fine


----------



## scottswatches (Sep 22, 2009)

Speaking to a Rolex dealer (not AD) today, and he said his phone had not stopped since the cryptocurrencies crashed further this week. Speculators took money from their crypto 'profits' and speculated on new and near new Rolex models. Now they want cash, and he isn't buying nearly new right now. We were at an auction preview and he didn't even look at the modern Rolex models - one has a guide of £55-65k plus 27% fees and he turned down two yesterday at £50k each all in.

There are bigger problems in society that short term speculators losing money right now, and sympathy is likely to be thin on the ground. Luckily I am not playing in their ballpark, and the sub £1k watches I mainly hold can not lose thousands overnight.

In case you haven't heard, Bitcoin is now worth $27,000 each whereas the high last year was $70,000. Terra Luna was $118 last month, and yesterday is was $0.09. The combined market value estimate for Crypto is about one third of what it was last November.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

scottswatches said:


> Speaking to a Rolex dealer (not AD) today, and he said his phone had not stopped since the cryptocurrencies crashed further this week. Speculators took money from their crypto 'profits' and speculated on new and near new Rolex models. Now they want cash, and he isn't buying nearly new right now. We were at an auction preview and he didn't even look at the modern Rolex models - one has a guide of £55-65k plus 27% fees and he turned down two yesterday at £50k each all in.
> 
> There are bigger problems in society that short term speculators losing money right now, and sympathy is likely to be thin on the ground. Luckily I am not playing in their ballpark, and the sub £1k watches I mainly hold can not lose thousands overnight.
> 
> In case you haven't heard, Bitcoin is now worth $27,000 each whereas the high last year was $70,000. Terra Luna was $118 last month, and yesterday is was $0.09. The combined market value estimate for Crypto is about one third of what it was last November.


 Are you saying that they're ringing ADs to buy rolex/ offload crypto or selling their Rolexes because they've run out of money? (Sorry it's been a long week lol)


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

WickerBill said:


> i disagree on one small part though, not all Rolex owners are Uber rich. I'm certainly not, but I've worked hard and saved up to get a watch I love and will hold onto


 Sorry, I wasn't suggesting all are uber rich, merely that those likely to be least touched by current and future economic and market stresses are the uber rich but that they make up only a teeny tiny proportion of Rolex's customers in a global demand sense. Of course there will be those like yourself genuinely interested in the watches who have saved up - good luck with the Explorer, hopefully you'll get it that bit sooner now. :thumbsup:

Don't know if you seen it but there's a video short from Paul Thorpe I've just seen about a flipper who was outed by his other half whilst actually in the AD.

Great karma I say, serves him right! :laugh: :laugh: Also means more watches for genuine enthusiasts.

Is it wrong that I really, really hope the bloke also gets investigated by HMRC for failing to pay the 28% Capital Gains Tax due on his watch profits?  :biggrin:

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/ELvkpv4O71E?feature=oembed


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

https://www.fratellowatches.com/dear-watch-fans-why-so-angry/

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## scottswatches (Sep 22, 2009)

WickerBill said:


> Are you saying that they're ringing ADs to buy rolex/ offload crypto or selling their Rolexes because they've run out of money? (Sorry it's been a long week lol)


 They are trying to sell their Rolex watches to free up cash. Don't feel too sorry for them- they are still over list price, just not as high as they were and fewer people willing to buy them.


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## Bricey (Apr 7, 2021)

This is what it looks like when the bubble bursts.


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

Recession in the watch world, what recession, bubbles bursting, I blame Thatcher and Brexit.

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

scottswatches said:


> They are trying to sell their Rolex watches to free up cash. Don't feel too sorry for them- they are still over list price, just not as high as they were and fewer people willing to buy them.


 Ahh makes sense. And lol no pity from me. That's the risk you take when you speculate


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

BondandBigM said:


> Recession in the watch world, what recession, bubbles bursting, I blame Thatcher and Brexit.
> 
> :laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


 Good to see there are still some bargains to be had. I will check my coin jar later.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

BondandBigM said:


> Recession in the watch world, what recession, bubbles bursting, I blame Thatcher and Brexit.
> 
> :laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


 Buying price. I got a NOS Laco recently for £10. Same one on Chrono 24; £1750.

Jokers.


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

WRENCH said:


> Buying price. I got a NOS Laco recently for £10. Same one on Chrono 24; £1750.


 I'd want to see the till receipt before I believe that

And if so and if it is the same watch and I'd made that sort of profit I wouldn't be posting it on a public tinternet forum



:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

As far as I recall, in economics the value of something is what you can get someone else to pay you for it. That does not necessarily correlate to your "asking price".

Sometimes common sense goes out of the window though; that is when bubbles occur. I am disinterested, as I don't like Rolex, but I must admit that a second hand market where the prices are ten times what already looks like a fairly rich RRP feels like bubble territory writ large.

Perhaps our good friend @BondandBigM should consider selling his bauble now.

.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

BondandBigM said:


> Recession in the watch world, what recession, bubbles bursting, I blame Thatcher and Brexit.
> 
> :laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


 Lol I know you're joking a bit but I don't know why people still use chrono24 as a good judge of prices. A lot of the time people just throw on a wild number to see what sticks, and half the time the watches don't even exist.

sale prices are more important than advertised prices


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

BondandBigM said:


> I'd want to see the till receipt before I believe that
> 
> And if so and if it is the same watch and I'd made that sort of profit I wouldn't be posting it on a public tinternet forum
> 
> ...


 Dead man's collection sadly, right place, right time. The one on Chrono 24 wasn't worth anymore than £80 - £150, just someone taking a chance.

I got this at the same time. Unworn £5










With what is probably the worst 1 jewel movement I've seen inside it.

Chrono 24 price for similar ?

https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/index.htm?query=Chancellor&dosearch=true&searchexplain=1&watchTypes=&accessoryTypes=

Plus I never made any profit off it. I was pointing out what some chancers idea of a fair price was on Chrono 24 compared to what I picked one up for, which is why the addition of the word "Jokers" was added in my post. Anything I get that cheap usually gets gifted. In the case of the Lanco my niece now wears it.


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## antjrice (Mar 13, 2020)

tick-tock-tittle-tattle said:


> I wonder how many people bought Rolex Hulk, Kermit, Batman, OP's etc, etc at super high inflated prices thinking they would only get higher in value.
> 
> Whenever the sh!t hits the fan in the economy it's funny how many Rolex watches go up for sale.
> 
> ...


 The Ketmit is my grail so I don't really mind whether it appreciates or not if I ever get one as I'll never get the value back out.

And heres the punchline, the people that love these watches are the last in line.

Also no disrespect to Fed but these videos wind me up.

All the you-tubers et al love a slight deviation as that a week:s worth of easy content to regurgitate, ironically talking it up and maybe encouraging some trigger fingers, causing the opposite effect.....


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

Paul T thinks it is probably a blip -- because of Chinese buyers being locked down at present.

But, he is not confident enough to buy at present.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/czh3sSV0DJc?feature=oembed


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

BondandBigM said:


> Recession in the watch world, what recession, bubbles bursting, I blame Thatcher and Brexit.
> 
> :laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:





chas g said:


> Good to see there are still some bargains to be had. I will check my coin jar later.


 What I find hysterically funny are the extra shipping charges :laugh: :laugh:

*Jessie's Watch Trading Losses*

"This week, I am mostly blaming....the Northern Ireland Protocol"










:laugh: :laugh:


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

So, the general consensus of watch selling/trading, is that it has moved with technology and progress then. Same geezers different presentation.


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

yokel said:


> Paul T thinks it is probably a blip -- because of Chinese buyers being locked down at present.
> 
> But, he is not confident enough to buy at present.


 I won't be buying any more "baubles" this week then.


----------



## scottswatches (Sep 22, 2009)

Fellows sale is currently live, and a GMT Master II current model with a list price of £12,200 just made £21,700 including fees.

Someone else bid £51k plus fees for a President in Everose, with olive dial, which should have a list price about £30k. It didn't meet reserve, which sounds greedy to me.

About 10% so far not met reserves across the whole auction, which is not unusual.


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

chas g said:


> I won't be buying any more "baubles" this week then.


 Yes, probably best to desist for a week, or even two :yes:


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

It's all speculation. Remember the great toilet roll "shortage" rush of 2020. Bigger than the Klondike they tell me.


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

"Bog rolls, cooking oil, nylon tights, Ukrainian wheat, Rolexes, I've got the lot, I can let you 'ave them at my best price, won't cost you much, know what I mean?"










:laugh: :laugh:


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

scottswatches said:


> Fellows sale is currently live, and a GMT Master II current model with a list price of £12,200 just made £21,700 including fees.
> 
> Someone else bid £51k plus fees for a President in Everose, with olive dial, which should have a list price about £30k. It didn't meet reserve, which sounds greedy to me.
> 
> About 10% so far not met reserves across the whole auction, which is not unusual.


 I keep my eye on the sold pages of this site. Sure my snap of the LV's was a bit in jest and yes I know full well advertised price and actual selling price are two different things altogether but this buyer clearly doesn't see the bubble bursting any time soon.

:huh:


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

BondandBigM said:


> I keep my eye on the sold pages of this site. Sure my snap of the LV's was a bit in jest and yes I know full well advertised price and actual selling price are two different things altogether but this buyer clearly doesn't see the bubble bursting any time soon.
> 
> :huh:


 Perhaps like so many winning bidders, they won't pay up (like the Tiffany PP 5711 that sold for $6.5m, except it didn't because the winning bidder didn't pay up)? Or perhaps, like Elon, the bidder will put the purchase "on hold" subject to clarification of some matters - bubble-related or otherwise? Or, the buyer just had an especially good week's distribution of stuff? 

Thirty years ago £130k would have bought you a nice three-bedroom semi in a leafy London suburb, with 100ft garden and off-street parking. Would be a bit heavy to wear on the wrist though I suppose :laugh: :laugh:


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

RTM Boy said:


> Thirty years ago £130k would have bought you a nice three-bedroom semi in a leafy London suburb, with 100ft garden and off-street parking. Would be a bit heavy to wear on the wrist though I suppose :laugh: :laugh:


 You make it sound lovely - tell me about the cherry trees in bloom and the smell of roses in the beautifully well kept gardens.

£500k today would buy a rat hole in outer London.

The only advantage of living in London as everyone knows is that the streets are paved with gold.


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

chas g said:


> You make it sound lovely - tell me about the cherry trees in bloom and the smell of roses in the beautifully well kept gardens.
> 
> £500k today would buy a rat hole in outer London.
> 
> The only advantage of living in London as everyone knows is that the streets are paved with gold.


 Sadly, you're spot in. London's decline into a cesspit of uncontrolled crime, violence, aggravation and a thoroughly unpleasant living experience truly began in earnest in the mid-1990s.

As for making it sound lovely - it was - once.

In Sir John Betjemen's seminal 1972 TV documentary Metroland he visits a typical inter-war residential street in Harrow (19 min 26 secs in if you want to find the bit) with no cars parked in the street, roses and neatly cut privet hedges in every garden and all you can hear is the breeze rustling the leaves of the trees and birds tweeting.

He comments; "Ah, the healthy air of Harrow in the 1920s and 30s when these villas were built. You paid a deposit, and eventually, we'd hope, you had your own house with its garage and front garden and back garden, a verge in front of your house, grass and tree for the dog, variety created in each facade of the houses and in the colouring of the trees. In fact, the country had come to the suburbs. Roses are blooming in Metroland, just as they did in the brochure."

Today in such streets the roses, privets and trees are gone, replaced by a festival of block paviours and Audis, over-sized loft and rear extensions, CCTV and anti-smash front doors, with the pavements paved with smashed paving slabs (strangely not gold ones) from all the builders lorries, and the 24/7 soundtrack of the thud-thud-thud of in-car stereos and police sirens...plus the distant rumble of Sir John Betjemen turning in his grave. Even the rats have moved out :laugh: :laugh: .

Sorry, I'm going very off topic. Or perhaps not :hmmm9uh: . Do such changes simply mirror the wider attitudes, motivations and priorities of today's society?


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

@RTM Boy my post was tongue in cheek. I was seduced by what I thought was a big salary working for IBM in the 80's. Stupidly I didn't research property prices before I took the job. I don't understand how young people get on the property ladder.

Back on topic, the asking prices of most preowned watches seem to be rising. The 4 year old Omega Seamaster I bought recently cost almost the same a couple of months as the original owner paid when it was new. I love the watch thought so it doesn't matter, just an observation.


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

chas g said:


> @RTM Boy my post was tongue in cheek. I was seduced by what I thought was a big salary working for IBM in the 80's. Stupidly I didn't research property prices before I took the job. I don't understand how young people get on the property ladder.
> 
> Back on topic, the asking prices of most preowned watches seem to be rising. The 4 year old Omega Seamaster I bought recently cost almost the same a couple of months as the original owner paid when it was new. I love the watch thought so it doesn't matter, just an observation.


 Many a true word said in jest though... :biggrin: In real terms (taking CPI into account) average house prices are more than twice what they were 40 years ago in 1982 and I remember thinking they were very high then! I couldn't afford to live in London again, even if I wanted to, which I most definitely don't.

With watch prices, as with the price of anything, in the end a watch is worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it. What is fashionable today, may not be tomorrow and vice versa.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

Well it looks like the bubble has finally burst big time.

In amongst the rush of women over 50 in Fort Augustus who are dying to meet me, and the surprising cost of cremation in Cowdenbeath, came this gem on today's news page.


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

For info, (I generally do every couple of weeks), I took a look at the sales corner on the dark side this morning.

There were four Rolex divers on the first page (all black dials). Clearly every day is different, but from my watching this seemed an uncharacteristically large offer. All were priced at between £9k and £12k. Three of the four were OHPF though, so ordinary types are still buying them.


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

yokel said:


> so ordinary types are still buying them.


 :laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

Why does this thread keep on reminding me of this ?

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/3CNmrUMS5FQ?feature=oembed


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

yokel said:


> For info, (I generally do every couple of weeks), I took a look at the sales corner on the dark side this morning.
> 
> There were four Rolex divers on the first page (all black dials). Clearly every day is different, but from my watching this seemed an uncharacteristically large offer. All were priced at between £9k and £12k. Three of the four were OHPF though, so ordinary types are still buying them.


 Ordinary types are still buying some of them. One Dark Side advert has now changed its header to include the word "reduced" -- which I haven't seen on a Sea-Dweller for a while. In fact, he has reduced his asking price three times-- and it's still for sale.


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## midnitemo (Aug 30, 2017)

I,m pleased to see this happening even though I hold a couple of Rolex,s , not bothered if a few quid drop off them , i have no intention of selling , the good as I see it is those that want one becaus6e they like them may not be priced out of the market , death by a thousand cuts (price)to the scalpers and speculators long live the fanciers lovers and collectors!


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

yokel said:


> Ordinary types


 Does such a thing exist, and if so what are they.

£2k now off an overpriced second hand Rolex diver in the local emporium of misery.


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

WRENCH said:


> Does such a thing exist, and if so what are they.
> 
> £2k now off an overpriced second hand Rolex diver in the local emporium of misery.


 With any luck soon the proprietors of the local emporium of misery will be visiting their local pawn shops with their $7k Rolex 'Rochefoucau'...

"In Philedelphia it's worth 50 bucks."

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/jLo7tHDHgOc?feature=oembed

:biggrin:


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Just history repeating itself. Classic cars like Dagenham dustbins which were pretty crap the day they were pushed off the production line now fetching ridiculous prices and enthusiasts priced out of the market. Looks like the gravy train of free money is about to hit the buffers and.............the rich will get richer. 20 years from now we will probably be in the same situation again.


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

Over on Watchmasters site, their daily deals consist of 50 watches, 32 Roles, 2 Tudors and a couple other brands. Looks to me like they are trying to reduce their Rolex inventory, still too much for me but coming down


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

neil wickham said:


> Over on Watchmasters site, their daily deals consist of 50 watches, 32 Roles, 2 Tudors and a couple other brands. Looks to me like they are trying to reduce their Rolex inventory, still too much for me but coming down


 Yup most other brands are unnafected. Shows which ones are overinflated in the first place.

Im not a Rolex hater, i own one and want another but to me, they are worth RRP.....but then i look at the horological side of watches, if i had 15k to spend on a watch, it would be a Lange, not a Rolex at triple RRP


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

WickerBill said:


> Yup most other brands are unnafected. Shows which ones are overinflated in the first place.
> 
> Im not a Rolex hater, i own one and want another but to me, they are worth RRP.....but then i look at the horological side of watches, if i had 15k to spend on a watch, it would be a Lange, not a Rolex at triple RRP


 Same as really, ive had a good few, my fav was a YM2, id love another but even rrp was a bit stiff as i got a discount on buying mine originally, oh for those days.

What surprises me is my slow but steady swing to Omega, almost each day im finding more interest in some of their models, just maybe


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

neil wickham said:


> Same as really, ive had a good few, my fav was a YM2, id love another but even rrp was a bit stiff as i got a discount on buying mine originally, oh for those days.
> 
> What surprises me is my slow but steady swing to Omega, almost each day im finding more interest in some of their models, just maybe


 I think a lot of people are realising what good value omega is compared to Rolex. If you take a look at pricing, £3700 for a pre owned Seamaster Vs £14000 for a Submariner (or £4500 V £7500 new).

Even the new Speedy which people said was overpriced at £6500 almost seems a bargain when the new Tudor Black Bay Chrono is around £5500 and the Breitling Navitimer are in the £7000 range.

Rolex make fabulous watches dont get me wrong, i love mine, but they are pushing the boundaries of what i think they are worth, even at RRP.....when the quality, materials and finishing of brands like Omega are ever increasing, they are becoming more and more appealing.

Lets be honest, take the Rolex name off a Rolex and what are you left with? most of the money is in the hype.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

WickerBill said:


> I think a lot of people are realising what good value omega is compared to Rolex.


 I think if Omega we're as unavailable as Rolex their prices would do the same. Omega sell ,at the moment, over Rolex because of availability.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

WRENCH said:


> I think if Omega we're as unavailable as Rolex their prices would do the same. Omega sell ,at the moment, over Rolex because of availability.


 Cant disagree with that. You see that in pieces like the Snoopy.

Thing is, they are available whether that be through increased supply or less demand.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

So. This is a bit crazy. I don't watch Producer Michael much, but last time I saw this watch dealers cases they were overflowing with Rolex's…..literally overflowing. Crazy and scary how few watches he's got now. Obviously knows something we don't…..

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/TtJY75rhHD4?feature=oembed


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

WickerBill said:


> So. This is a bit crazy. I don't watch Producer Michael much, but last time I saw this watch dealers cases they were overflowing with Rolex's…..literally overflowing. Crazy and scary how few watches he's got now. Obviously knows something we don't…..
> 
> https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/TtJY75rhHD4?feature=oembed


 On looking at a hideous white gold RO with a salmon dial...

Seth: "We need for this...I think I need...$170k..."

PM: "That's just crazy"

Seth "It *is *crazy, but if you want this watch that's what you've got to pay for it".

Looking at an ordinary looking 5168 Aquanaut (I know it isn't ordibnary)...

Seth: "If you want to buy this watch right now it's still going to cost you $150-170k"

PM: "For a watch that really doesn't do anything but tell you the time and give you the date???"

Seth: "It doesn't make any logical sense."

PM: "It looks like a Swatch watch."

And Seth asks Producer Michael why he's not wearing a watch or any jewellery and he replies; "They're all in the bank, Beverley Hills has become a crazy place, so no earring, no watch, no valuables..."

So, the dealer knows the prices are all illogical, insists "nothing's crashing, it's a blip", but has de-stocked because he's desperate to reduce exposure to falling prices because there are no buyers at the moment and there are no buyers because prices are falling...and it's all because of the war in Ukraine...and you can't wear anything anyway because Beverley Hills is "a crazy place" now :hmmm9uh:

I think that from now on I'm just going to stop watch YT videos. :yes:


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

Well, just watched that video through.

Great pains to point out time and time again, the market is not crashing! but im not buying stock !

The insanity of the AP and PP numbers is just.. well insane. And yes i can understand if you paid $175k and it drops $20k you probaly dont care at all, i mean i aint ever spending that kind of money on a watch, but it does high light how fickle the market is, if the IG ers get turned off then its only going one way, down, and of course these dealers are going to big it up all day long, but as he said they just aint buying anywhere near what it was a couple months ago.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

The market is not crashing but there are some serious corrections taking place ... I saw a price-spotter output from a watch enthusiast on the DC&TW FB page and it was noteworthy.... Daytonas falling back to late 2021 prices [ $20,000+ drops ] and many dealers looking to clear out certain models. If you strip out the drop-ship type "agent selling" and try to see the picture purely on deal-held stock its harder to see a pattern but its certainly downwards ... but to what extent is hard to see with clarity. If Bitcoin drops again then I expect the waters to be less muddy. Also , tales coming in of buyers with no Rolex History [ or very little ] picking up SS models almost to order [ ie less than 2 month wait ]. Bucherer and a couple of Indies up North getting much more frequent stock. Conversely Goldsmiths in some locations are playing the crooked buy-some-crap first card to "get on a list" .... interesting mood music all round.


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Looking at 43mm Rolex sea dwellers this evening and it is very noticeable that prices are definitely dropping.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

chas g said:


> Looking at 43mm Rolex sea dwellers this evening and it is very noticeable that prices are definitely dropping.


 Yep still falling. Core pieces like the Explorer and Serb still seem relatively unaffected.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

chas g said:


> Looking at 43mm Rolex sea dwellers this evening and it is very noticeable that prices are definitely dropping.


 Although the Sea Dweller is a fine watch, the new Omega Planet Ocean Deep sea is a far better proposition in my view .... and they are selling very very well ... its hard to imagine anyone wanting one of each ...


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Although the Sea Dweller is a fine watch, the new Omega Planet Ocean Deep sea is a far better proposition in my view .... and they are selling very very well ... its hard to imagine anyone wanting one of each


 The new Omega and the Rolex sea dweller deep sea both suffer the same problem - far too thick and heavy. I liked the look of the deep sea but having tried one on there was no way I would buy one. Quite happy with my new 43mm Sea dweller which I have willed to friend for when I shuffle off.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Tell me you're a flipper without telling me you're a flipper. Wonder who just offloaded 8 BB58s in one go? Same age, released for sale on the same day. No longer being sold above RRP

https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/new-arrivals


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

I have no interest in the profit of watches, it's my hobby. From my own days in business, I always tried to keep things as "depression proof" as possible, and I always asked competitors how things were with them, (when I fully knew anyway) The answer would usually be " over the top, can't cope" when their workshops were dead, indicating the opposite. I wonder how many of these "dealers" are operating on borrowed money (never a good thing in their chosen market) because it's almost like some are intent on talking/taking the market down.










Last week there was a similar list of financial horological doom from the financial journals.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

WRENCH said:


> I have no interest in the profit of watches, it's my hobby. From my own days in business, I always tried to keep things as "depression proof" as possible, and I always asked competitors how things were with them, (when I fully knew anyway) The answer would usually be " over the top, can't cope" when their workshops were dead, indicating the opposite. I wonder how many of these "dealers" are operating on borrowed money (never a good thing in their chosen market) because it's almost like some are intent on talking/taking the market down.
> 
> 
> 
> Last week there was a similar list of financial horological doom from the financial journals.


 As ever, there are ALWAYS winners and losers. I suspect those with money in the bank will talk the market down and then buy the dip, those who are holding these pieces will be talking the market up not wanting them to dip.

in terms of dealers/ backpack flippers I suppose we will see who has liquidity and business sense. Those who do, will ride out this for as long as they can.

I suspect the 8 black bays above were from a flipper needing to sell to repay the loans…..no proof of course but it's unusual to say the least


----------



## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

Some people in this thread clearly don't live in the real world.










They are only making 25 so that's at least another 12-1/2 people that probably don't give a [email protected] if their PP or vintage Rolex has went up or down in value by a couple or three grand.

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


----------



## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

BondandBigM said:


> people that probably don't give a [email protected] if their PP or vintage Rolex has went up or down in value by a couple or three grand.


 That's why they wear salmon pink trousers.


----------



## No time to tell (Jun 6, 2021)

WickerBill said:


> Tell me you're a flipper without telling me you're a flipper. Wonder who just offloaded 8 BB58s in one go? Same age, released for sale on the same day. No longer being sold above RRP
> 
> https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/new-arrivals


 They have been available off the shelf for ages, they were hot for a while but people seem to get bored off it really quickly


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

No time to tell said:


> They have been available off the shelf for ages, they were hot for a while but people seem to get bored off it really quickly


 Realise that, but it's the first time I've seen them sold in bulk below RRP


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Interesting, (well for me anyway!) My local grey dealer is no longer buying watches of any brand. I know that Watchfinder stopped buying 'hot' models a while back, but it now seems to be spreading.

Interesting times ahead for these guys. I dont know their margins but if they have been buying at the highs and now arent selling (because they cant reduce prices by much and still turn a profit ) while at the same time not buying now at the reduced prices, then im not sure how they are making money.....

....it also shows me that they arent prepared to gamble and think prices still have some way to go down...

Anyway as i said, probably not interesting to most on here.....think your Casios and Swatches are ok!....but interesting for some to keep their finger on the pulse

Oh and his current stock is circa 280 Rolex, 120 Omega, 180 Breitling and a smattering of other brands...thats a lot of watches to be holding for a small jeweller...

hmmm just checked companies house.....about 2 million profit for the year and 5 million in assets....i guess they will be alright...

the latter is probably why theyre not buying right now....


----------



## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

Another Sub on the dark side -- started at £8500; now down to £8100 ono.

The old order definitely seems to be crumbling a bit.


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

yokel said:


> Another Sub on the dark side -- started at £8500; now down to £8100 ono.
> 
> The old order definitely seems to be crumbling a bit.


 And today I spoke to a watch enthusiast who enquired at a local AD in March about a new Sub no date , he has zero history/smarming with that AD or any other Rolex dealer , and they called him yesterday to go in an try on .. he is fairly sure he will buy it .. "wait time" less than 10 weeks.


----------



## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> And today I spoke to a watch enthusiast who enquired at a local AD in March about a new Sub no date , he has zero history/smarming with that AD or any other Rolex dealer , and they called him yesterday to go in an try on .. he is fairly sure he will buy it .. "wait time" less than 10 weeks.


 That is excellent news. I might get my last watch, a datejust 41mm at rrp



WickerBill said:


> Interesting, (well for me anyway!) My local grey dealer is no longer buying watches of any brand. I know that Watchfinder stopped buying 'hot' models a while back, but it now seems to be spreading.
> 
> Interesting times ahead for these guys. I dont know their margins but if they have been buying at the highs and now arent selling (because they cant reduce prices by much and still turn a profit ) while at the same time not buying now at the reduced prices, then im not sure how they are making money.....
> 
> ...


 Where the head goes, the tail will follow. :yes:

Hopefully a correction in the market for all overpricec preowned watches not just Rolex, AP, PP etc.

@BondandBigM should be OK with his Steinhart homage :thumbsup:


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

chas g said:


> That is excellent news. I might get my last watch, a datejust 41mm at rrp
> 
> Where the head goes, the tail will follow. :yes:
> 
> ...


 Yeh I mention Rolex purely because it's in my wheelhouse so have been following prices a bit… I'm sure it's happening with other brands too



JonnyOldBoy said:


> And today I spoke to a watch enthusiast who enquired at a local AD in March about a new Sub no date , he has zero history/smarming with that AD or any other Rolex dealer , and they called him yesterday to go in an try on .. he is fairly sure he will buy it .. "wait time" less than 10 weeks.


 Haha getting me nervous about my Explorer now. One side of me says if it comes up, snap their hand off…the other says see what happens with the economy first!


----------



## SolaVeritate (Mar 21, 2021)

I keep looking at the prices and thinking.. "It's not exactly sale of the century"

It seems to me that it's more along the lines of.. "buy me, I'm a tax reduced brexit offer".


----------



## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

SolaVeritate said:


> I keep looking at the prices and thinking.. "It's not exactly sale of the century"
> 
> It seems to me that it's more along the lines of.. "buy me, I'm a tax reduced brexit offer".


 That's far too complex, to put it in simple terms,

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/V7NlFWh7Sz8?feature=oembed


----------



## tick-tock-tittle-tattle (Aug 4, 2018)

WickerBill said:


> I dont know their margins but if they have been buying at the highs and now arent selling


 I can give you an idea/example of buying/selling prices.

They offered me £8500.00 for my Air King. They had one for sale for £10500.00 which was the same year, and same condition etc.

I had asked them if they would also quote on a Rolex GMT Master II owned by my brother in law and they weren't interested.


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

SolaVeritate said:


> I keep looking at the prices and thinking.. "It's not exactly sale of the century"
> 
> It seems to me that it's more along the lines of.. "buy me, I'm a tax reduced brexit offer".


 I suppose it depends what you're looking at.

daytonas have dropped by about £15000 since all this started, GMTs about £7000, Explorers and Submariners about £2000. The bigger the hype the bigger the fall.

still all still massively over inflated imho…tbh anything double retail is mad



tick-tock-tittle-tattle said:


> I can give you an idea/example of buying/selling prices.
> 
> They offered me £8500.00 for my Air King. They had one for sale for £10500.00 which was the same year, and same condition etc.
> 
> I had asked them if they would also quote on a Rolex GMT Master II owned by my brother in law and they weren't interested.


 Seems like they're staying away from hype prices and just buying core models…you're not the first person I've heard saying that. Good to know their margins though, certainly better than when I offered them an Oris lol!


----------



## tick-tock-tittle-tattle (Aug 4, 2018)

WickerBill said:


> I suppose it depends what you're looking at.
> 
> daytonas have dropped by about £15000 since all this started, GMTs about £7000, Explorers and Submariners about £2000. The bigger the hype the bigger the fall.
> 
> ...


 I totally agree with you, the much hyped watches have been hit the hardest, however I can't comment on OP's as I haven't looked at them for a while to know if they have been hit the same way.

When the new OP's were launched I quite fancied getting a blue or green dial, but with all the hype around them it turned me off the idea.

I wonder how many genuine buyers (not looking to flip) were pushed to the back of the queue for an OP only to walk away from that queue to go and buy something a lot more interesting. I think that by 2024-2025 there will be a load of realistically priced preowned Rolex watches on the market. Time will tell.


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

tick-tock-tittle-tattle said:


> I totally agree with you, the much hyped watches have been hit the hardest, however I can't comment on OP's as I haven't looked at them for a while to know if they have been hit the same way.
> 
> When the new OP's were launched I quite fancied getting a blue or green dial, but with all the hype around them it turned me off the idea.
> 
> I wonder how many genuine buyers (not looking to flip) were pushed to the back of the queue for an OP only to walk away from that queue to go and buy something a lot more interesting. I think that by 2024-2025 there will be a load of realistically priced preowned Rolex watches on the market. Time will tell.


 Any correction in the market is highly desirable especially if a few flippers get burned on the way.

Yesterday it was business as usual at the local Rolex AD with empty windows and a few watches with "display purposes only" signs next to them. The better half took her 1990 ladies bi-metal datejust that she bought new all those years ago will be away for 16 weeks for a service.

If she drops the watch off this week for the service I will ask her to enquire about a no date Submariner. Be interesting what the response is these days. I suspect it will be nothing more than eye rolling and explaining why it's not possible to say.

Tudor? Windows over flowing with them. I suspect if you ask nicely you'll get money off one.


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

An AD in our area appears to have ditched almost their entire stock of Pre-owned luxury watches ... after further investigation is transpires that said AD did this "because selling hard to buy-new watches for the market inflated prices was having a negative effect image wise on their established customer base" [ Their words }. interesting statement ....


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> An AD in our area appears to have ditched almost their entire stock of Pre-owned luxury watches ... after further investigation is transpires that said AD did this "because selling hard to buy-new watches for the market inflated prices was having a negative effect image wise on their established customer base" [ Their words }. interesting statement ....


 I assume they still have other brands that they can sell, otherwise it's an interesting business move lol


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WickerBill said:


> I assume they still have other brands that they can sell, otherwise it's an interesting business move lol


 They are AD for Omega, Zenith, Tudor, Breitling, Cartier, Tag and a few other luxury brands ... but until recently they had over a dozen Roleys in the window from 2021 at the stupid prices ... they disappeared at a stroke so presumably off loaded on the wholesale market ( similar thing happened at another local-ish AD but that was because he told me he they were not selling ) ... Prior to 2021 they always had a Pre-owned section , but it was for their trade-ins. That is still there but with only three watches for sale ...


----------



## Bricey (Apr 7, 2021)

I think it was this meme that started the crash.


----------



## Dilly (Dec 23, 2019)

Im interested if this is an overhyped nothing to do in lock down coming back to normal correction. Or finally has the world realised that only watch enthusiasts have watches. This time will come at some point surely. I know flashy watches are jewelry and we are all aware of such watches as the Casio Duro for £60 off Amazon as worn by Bill Gates covering your diver. A G Shock for £70 covering an everyday beater and I cant think off the top of my head of a very cheap office/dress watch. A Seiko 5 perhaps.

But surely it cant be that far away where the kids coming through will look at mechanical watches and think why on earth would I wear that. Its no different to a Pocket Watch. The hipsters and old school wear them but joe average would touch them. In the same way they dont use candles for light in their homes.

Surely there is a squibillion dollars of watch industry going to be on its arse in a decade or so. Quartz crisis MKII.

Hopefully Ill be able to afford a Rolex OP in 20 years if it happens but will struggle to get a kid looking for an app to service it artytime:


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Dilly said:


> Im interested if this is an overhyped nothing to do in lock down coming back to normal correction. Or finally has the world realised that only watch enthusiasts have watches. This time will come at some point surely. I know flashy watches are jewelry and we are all aware of such watches as the Casio Duro for £60 off Amazon as worn by Bill Gates covering your diver. A G Shock for £70 covering an everyday beater and I cant think off the top of my head of a very cheap office/dress watch. A Seiko 5 perhaps.
> 
> But surely it cant be that far away where the kids coming through will look at mechanical watches and think why on earth would I wear that. Its no different to a Pocket Watch. The hipsters and old school wear them but joe average would touch them. In the same way they dont use candles for light in their homes.
> 
> ...


 Some interesting points. The biggest mistake the watch industry is making at the moment in my opinion is they are confusing demand for wrist watches and demand for speculation on wrist watches. Once it finally dawns on them what is actually happening, they will be a period of restrained, contained panic. HUGE numbers of luxury watches in the States were being traded in 2021 via crypto and watches in some arenas because almost a speculative currency in themselves. The watch industry only has so much of a finite window to "attract the next generation" and at least Rolex clearly realise this and are obviously making more SS mainstream models whilst releasing watches this spring deliberately that not many WIS would want to buy. I am hearing murmerings that the UK retailers are overstocked against relatively slowing sales. Whilst UK sales alone are not significant enough to impact global gross revenue pictures, it could be a sign of trouble ahead for some Manufacturers given that they would not be lowering any RRPs and may be stuck with artificially High RRPs. I think Swatch group are potentially particularly vulnerable in this respect.


----------



## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> I think Swatch group are potentially particularly vulnerable in this respect.


 0mega?

Blancpain?

Breguet?

GO?

JD?

Who is gouging?


----------



## Karrusel (Aug 13, 2016)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> The biggest mistake the watch industry is making at the moment in my opinion is they are confusing demand for wrist watches and demand for speculation on wrist watches. Once it finally dawns on them what is actually happening, I think Swatch group are potentially particularly vulnerable in this respect.


 You after an advisory position?

Can give you Nick's number if you want to pursue it….

:laugh:


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Some interesting points. The biggest mistake the watch industry is making at the moment in my opinion is they are confusing demand for wrist watches and demand for speculation on wrist watches. Once it finally dawns on them what is actually happening, they will be a period of restrained, contained panic. HUGE numbers of luxury watches in the States were being traded in 2021 via crypto and watches in some arenas because almost a speculative currency in themselves. The watch industry only has so much of a finite window to "attract the next generation" and at least Rolex clearly realise this and are obviously making more SS mainstream models whilst releasing watches this spring deliberately that not many WIS would want to buy.* I am hearing murmerings that the UK retailers are overstocked against relatively slowing sales*. Whilst UK sales alone are not significant enough to impact global gross revenue pictures, it could be a sign of trouble ahead for some Manufacturers given that they would not be lowering any RRPs and may be stuck with artificially High RRPs. I think Swatch group are potentially particularly vulnerable in this respect.


 It doesn't look like that to me. In the last two weeks I have looked at three Rolex ADs (whilst looking at other watch brands). All three had nothing in the window except a few pieces marked for display only. Better half is dropping her ladies DJ for a service probably next week and I will get her to ask for a heads up on delivery of a retirement watch for her husband.


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> An AD in our area appears to have ditched almost their entire stock of Pre-owned luxury watches ... after further investigation is transpires that said AD did this "because selling hard to buy-new watches for the market inflated prices was having a negative effect image wise on their established customer base" [ Their words }. interesting statement ....


 Is this what may happen if Rolex AD.s were to do "approved used watches" i guess at market rate plus. I would have a very hard time trusting a business that could potentially sell all its new stock to "someone" then just put them all back in the window at the market inflated price, win win


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Brent Cross shopping centre (can't remember if it was goldsmiths or WOS) had a big display of Rolex watches but no 41mm Datejust which is what I wanted to look at.


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

chas g said:


> Brent Cross shopping centre (can't remember if it was goldsmiths or WOS) had a big display of Rolex watches but no 41mm Datejust which is what I wanted to look at.


 Actually for sale? No "for display purposes only" signs?


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Watch Seeker said:


> Actually for sale? No "for display purposes only" signs?


 "Not for sale - Exhibition only" signs on them. What surprised me was the number they had this time when on my last visit 3 months ago they had hardly any in the window or shop.


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

chas g said:


> "Not for sale - Exhibition only" signs on them. What surprised me was the number they had this time when on my last visit 3 months ago they had hardly any in the window or shop.


 Business as usual then. The grey dealer round the corner will have them all for sale at stupid prices.


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

yokel said:


> 0mega?
> 
> Blancpain?
> 
> ...


 No-mega?

Blank-pain?

Beg-eh?

GO away?

So Long-ines?

I'll get my Jaquet, Dross

Harry You-win-some-you-lose-some?

Hamiltoff?



:laugh: :laugh:

Keep ratcheting SRPs up in a shrinking volume market (and *volumes *have been falling for years), in the end, will leave no market left for all those except the very strongest and the most niche.



neil wickham said:


> Is this what may happen if Rolex AD.s were to do "approved used watches" i guess at market rate plus. I would have a very hard time trusting a business that could potentially sell all its new stock to "someone" then just put them all back in the window at the market inflated price, win win


 It does all depend on whether the brand name remains sufficiently desirable/cool over time. Today Rolex is a mass-market, high-volume, brand in demand. These things have changed in the past and will change in the future and nothing is certain.


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

neil wickham said:


> Is this what may happen if Rolex AD.s were to do "approved used watches" i guess at market rate plus. I would have a very hard time trusting a business that could potentially sell all its new stock to "someone" then just put them all back in the window at the market inflated price, win win


 Both ADs near-ish to me that have ditched all their Preowned 2020/2021 Rolex were not Rolex ADs, but both are Tudor ADs ... !!


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

RTM Boy said:


> No-mega?
> 
> Blank-pain?
> 
> ...


 Jeezus H

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:

Like most us here I'm a bottom feeder but meanwhile in the real world ( you should try it sometime ) there is still a ton of money swilling around.

Despite your assertions there is whole other world out there. Allegedly Rolex make a million watches a year.

Somebody must be getting them just not you or I.

Maybe you need to waken up and smell the coffee.



Not everyone is skint

:biggrin:


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

BondandBigM said:


> Not everyone is skint


 Nope.

https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-sales-rocket-to-over-chf-8-billion-in-2021/


----------



## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

@RTM Boy

You maybe need to take that big chip off your shoulder, you'll be happier for it



:laughing2dw: :thumbsup:


----------



## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

BondandBigM said:


> Not everyone is skint


 On a ratio basis probably the amount of folks who are will be much higher though.

I've also noticed these people who "predict" what's going to happen are very rarely multi millionaires. :laughing2dw:


----------



## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

BondandBigM said:


> @RTM Boy
> 
> You maybe need to take that big chip off your shoulder, you'll be happier for it
> 
> ...


 Sounds like you're the one who needs some salt for some reason. Why's that I wonder? :hmmm9uh: Criticism of idiotic pricing, speculator self-inflating asset bubble bursting and looking forward to falling prices making you uncomfortable Bond? Do you buy the hype or just got something to lose perhaps? 

Never mind eh. It's only money. You'll be happier with less of it. :laugh: :thumbsup:



WRENCH said:


> Nope.
> 
> https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-sales-rocket-to-over-chf-8-billion-in-2021/


 That was 2021...whereas in 2022 we have a terrible war in Ukraine, rocketing CoL across the world, crypto and tech share collapse, rising interest rates and much of China in full lockdown;

https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_index/rolex

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10872961/French-recession-looms-cost-living-crisis-mounts.html

https://www.politico.eu/article/eurozone-inflation-jumps-to-new-record-adding-pressure-on-ecb/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhyatt/2022/05/14/cryptos-richest-lost-nearly-60-billion-in-recent-weeks-in-massive-crypto-collapse/?sh=1337960f9914

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/30/terra-2point0-new-luna-cryptocurrency-is-already-crashing.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/03/china/covid-shanghai-post-lockdown-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

All bound to have an impact, hence the falling grey market prices of Rolexes. Once the speculators who've treated watches as tradable assets find their one-way bet no longer holds, availability should improve and prices return to reasonable levels, which can only be a good thing. :thumbs_up:


----------



## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

RTM Boy said:


> All bound to have an impact, hence the falling grey market prices of Rolexes. Once the speculators who've treated watches as tradable assets find their one-way bet no longer holds, availability should improve and prices return to reasonable levels, which can only be a good thing.


 I'm going to go and live in a shed and listen to very loud music.


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WRENCH said:


> On a ratio basis probably the amount of folks who are will be much higher though.


 spot on and increasingly so .... the illusion that RRPs in the watch world are realistic is in danger of being called out. Longines for example ... are offering watches for £2700 that are frankly not worth it build wise [ although many of their watches are superb value ] ... £2700 gets you a Breitling Avenger which is about the best watch value in my opinion £2-3k ... these sorts of "illogical" playfields don't matter that much in gravy train times .. but we are about to come out of the Covid "printing money" phase which has led to inflation and will also cause a serious recession in the western world .. I think the "watch sales" will return this autumn ...



RTM Boy said:


> Never mind eh. It's only money. You'll be happier with less of it. :laugh: :thumbsup:


 One of the crypto guys on FBs DC&TW page said this a couple of weeks back ... he admitted accepting crypto for a sale for a Hublot. When it started to tank he "swapped in" to a Rolex Sub in Bi-Metal [ swapped in is what those types say when they trade stuff for speculation ] , when his "software" told him to swap out the watch he lost $8000. He laughed it off , and said self ironically pretty much what you just said. He is a millionaire and its just like losing a pair of shoes to him .... but maybe Bondy is bigger than we suspected !? :laugh:


----------



## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Oh dear. I logged on to TWF this dreary morning for a bit of light relief.

Think I best get the shed ordered and follow @WRENCH


----------



## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

WRENCH said:


> I'm going to go and live in a shed and listen to very loud music.


 "This week I shall be listening mostly to the theme tune from Neighbours turned up to 11." :hug:


----------



## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

RTM Boy said:


> "This week I shall be listening mostly to the theme tune from Neighbours turned up to 11." :hug:


 I had this more I mind.


----------



## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

WRENCH said:


> I had this more I mind.


 Gosh, both bars and shutters on the window. Rough area, the Western Isles :jawdrop1:


----------



## Karrusel (Aug 13, 2016)

yokel said:


> Gosh, both bars and shutters on the window. Rough area, the Western Isles :jawdrop1:


 Herb growing factory :yes:

No chimney on the smoke house is the giveaway :nono:

:biggrin:


----------



## tick-tock-tittle-tattle (Aug 4, 2018)

WRENCH said:


> I had this more I mind.


 Shed?

More like a 5 Star But and Ben


----------



## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

yokel said:


> Gosh, both bars and shutters on the window. Rough area, the Western Isles :jawdrop1:


 That's to keep me in. :taz:


----------



## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

WRENCH said:


> multi millionaires. :laughing2dw:


 Correct but I've worked for a couple so I have a bit of an inside line on how it works.

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


----------



## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

BondandBigM said:


> Correct but I've worked for a couple so I have a bit of an inside line on how it works.
> 
> :laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


 Exploitation. :laughing2dw:


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

More chit chat from the DC&TW page on FB ; Rolex it appears are removing their offerings from some smaller dealerships around the UK and this appears to be Rolex pulling the plug , not the other way around. One AD said it happened early this year and they have taken on IWC and TAG to replace and have since more than doubled their revenue on luxury watch sales so win-win for both parties !! She seemed to think that Rolex are heading slowly towards Boutiques,WoS and a couple of other majors only. Apparently Wempe London are also loosing the dealership ....


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> More chit chat from the DC&TW page on FB ; Rolex it appears are removing their offerings from some smaller dealerships around the UK and this appears to be Rolex pulling the plug , not the other way around. One AD said it happened early this year and they have taken on IWC and TAG to replace and have since more than doubled their revenue on luxury watch sales so win-win for both parties !! She seemed to think that Rolex are heading slowly towards Boutiques,WoS and a couple of other majors only. Apparently Wempe London are also loosing the dealership ....


 That doesn't surprise me in the slightest actually. Our local AD is a small independent high street operation. They only carry Rolex, Tudor and Bremont franchises. Given they have no Rolex watches to sell it would be a perfect time for the mothership to dump them. It makes perfect sense for them to have much fewer but much larger AD network. That way they have absolute control of the market via fewer but bigger outlets.


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> More chit chat from the DC&TW page on FB ; Rolex it appears are removing their offerings from some smaller dealerships around the UK and this appears to be Rolex pulling the plug , not the other way around. One AD said it happened early this year and they have taken on IWC and TAG to replace and have since more than doubled their revenue on luxury watch sales so win-win for both parties !! She seemed to think that Rolex are heading slowly towards Boutiques,WoS and a couple of other majors only. Apparently Wempe London are also loosing the dealership ....


 Yup

Seems to be what ive been told in person. there are 2 small ADs near me, one seems confident they are keeping their dealer status, the other hasnt seen a watch in months and is looking towards stocking Grand Seiko instead

If you are Rolex it makes sense, tighter control of their product, easier distribution and if they start to go boutique they can cut out the middle man.

VC recently removed itself from WoS and have gone the Boutique route


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WickerBill said:


> Yup
> 
> Seems to be what ive been told in person. there are 2 small ADs near me, one seems confident they are keeping their dealer status, the other hasnt seen a watch in months and is looking towards stocking Grand Seiko instead
> 
> ...


 Interesting quote from a Grand Seiko opening event in London earlier this year ... " We see an opportunity in the UK because the data and demographics are telling us there are more discerning potential buyers here " .. not sure what that really means to be honest but at the very least, they seem confident ....


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Interesting quote from a Grand Seiko opening event in London earlier this year ... " We see an opportunity in the UK because the data and demographics are telling us there are more discerning potential buyers here " .. not sure what that really means to be honest but at the very least, they seem confident ....


 I've seen a lot of love for grand Seiko in the Watch community, for the price point their finishing, dials, movements are incredible. It's one of those watch brands on the up at the moment….so much so I bought one!


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> I've seen a lot of love for grand Seiko in the Watch community, for the price point their finishing, dials, movements are incredible. It's one of those watch brands on the up at the moment….so much so I bought one!


 Now you can buy the spring drive movement in a regular Seiko. Kind of diminishes the attraction of a Grand Seiko. Maybe?

I do like them, mind.


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

Grand Seiko? a brand i dismissed completely until very recently. Got to be some truth in the previous post, i mean, you cant buy a Rolex well not a list from an AD, but you can buy a technically superior watch for a similar or cheaper price from an AD down the road. Seiko is a vast global brand, a few years of advertising/sponsorship and " Grand Seiko" could be the next big thing amongst fickle IGers


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> Now you can buy the spring drive movement in a regular Seiko. Kind of diminishes the attraction of a Grand Seiko. Maybe?
> 
> I do like them, mind.


 Which Seiko has the spring drive? Must have missed that!



neil wickham said:


> Grand Seiko? a brand i dismissed completely until very recently. Got to be some truth in the previous post, i mean, you cant buy a Rolex well not a list from an AD, but you can buy a technically superior watch for a similar or cheaper price from an AD down the road. Seiko is a vast global brand, a few years of advertising/sponsorship and " Grand Seiko" could be the next big thing amongst fickle IGers


 Tbh I dismissed them for a long time….didn't think I could get over the Seiko name but in person they blew me away. Photos don't do them justice


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Interesting quote from a Grand Seiko opening event in London earlier this year ... " We see an opportunity in the UK because the data and demographics are telling us there are more discerning potential buyers here " .. not sure what that really means to be honest but at the very least, they seem confident ....


 "What's your watch mate"

"Grand Seiko"

"Yeah, looks good I've been looking at them on the Argos website, not bad for a couple of hundred quid.



Still I suppose less chance of getting mugged for it.

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

BondandBigM said:


> "What's your watch mate"
> 
> "Grand Seiko"
> 
> ...


 If only they had given it a completely different name with a big marketing exercise it would no doubt have been elevated way beyond its current position in people's perception.


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

chas g said:


> If only they had given it a completely different name with a big marketing exercise it would no doubt have been elevated way beyond its current position in people's perception.


 Similarly with those expensive G-Shocks. You need to be a serious G-Shock nerd to buy one at four or five grand that doesn't look that much different the the handful I've got, none of which cost more than a hundred quid

:hmmm9uh:


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> Which Seiko has the spring drive? Must have missed that!
> 
> Tbh I dismissed them for a long time….didn't think I could get over the Seiko name but in person they blew me away. Photos don't do them justice


 If you select movement type on the Seiko UK website, select Spring Drive - The search brings up 8 examples all badged as Seiko. They sit above "King Seiko" but below "Grand Seiko" in the range of watches. The Seiko Spring Drive watches range from £4100 to £5400 list price. I know they have a superb movement, but in the overall scheme of things a £5 grand Seiko is a hard sell? I expect in due course massive discounts to be had.

Here's one of them - https://www.seikowatches.com/uk-en/products/prospex/snr025j1


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

BondandBigM said:


> "What's your watch mate"


 .... said no one ever .... :laugh:



chas g said:


> If only they had given it a completely different name with a big marketing exercise it would no doubt have been elevated way beyond its current position in shallow people's perception.


 There .. sorted that for you.


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## Caller. (Dec 8, 2013)

chas g said:


> If only they had given it a completely different name with a big marketing exercise it would no doubt have been elevated way beyond its current position in people's perception.


 I think that the majority of people that buy Grand Seiko will be watch enthusiasts, at least initially, for the reason given by @BondandBigM :biggrin: . To then trickle down to the general public over a period of time.

The problem for Seiko is that Grand Seiko has always been under the 'Seiko' umbrella in Japan. After all, until recently, Grand Seiko was only available in Japan. I guess they could have created another identity for the rest of the World, but how much traction would that have gained without having one of the most respected brands out there, with a long history of manufacturing watches, behind it?

Seiko have created a neat marketing hierarchy for their models and affiliated brands and their division (Seiko Nextage) that creates watches for others, such as issey miyake. Their introductory brand is Alba, which really create some interesting sports designs, then their is Lorus, Pulsar and Orient and now at the top of the tree, generally often priced way above the level of Grand Seiko, is Credor. This piece for example, is priced at 66,000 UK pounds










I suspect for the general international market, at the price point Grand Seiko is sold at, it was seen as a better long term mass market bet than Credor, which also sat until recently, under the Seiko umbrella, as Seiko Credor. But got the chop, so to speak, and is now a 'new separate' brand owned by Seiko.

クレドール公式サイト｜Credor


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> .... said no one ever .... :laugh:


 Maybe not in your world but some of us live in the here and now.

A couple of weeks ago when I was out and about I was mistaken for a minor celeb, no idea who but who cares.

Nice Rolex mate.










Are those Okleys ??

Sure go ahead and try them on.










You and I need to go for a night out and I'll show you how real people live.

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:

Just as an aside feel free to use my head for your avatar, you might even get more likes.

:biggrin:


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

BondandBigM said:


> Nice Rolex mate.
> 
> You and I need to go for a night out and I'll show you how real people live.


 It's all relative. Down here in civilisation no ones cares about what sunglasses/watch brands other people are wearing on a night out... If anyone started trying to big themselves up with brand names then they would be laughed at royally .... it would be embarrassing .... just a cultural divide .... There are a few sink estates where the thieving chavs take selfies with stolen JD sports stuff with their "gangsta" hand gestures , but they are just kids .... no old geezers act like that .... seriously they don't. But I am glad the Harry Enfield show is alive and well "erp neerth" :thumbsup:



Watch Seeker said:


> They sit above "King Seiko" but below "Grand Seiko" in the range of watches.


 Gotta say this does show that the Seiko Branding needs a tweak ... Surely clear water should exist between GS and Seiko core stuff but increasingly its getting blurred ... this can not be good in the long run ... !?


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

Caller. said:


> I think that the majority of people that buy Grand Seiko will be watch enthusiasts, at least initially, for the reason given by @BondandBigM :biggrin: . To then trickle down to the general public over a period of time.
> 
> The problem for Seiko is that Grand Seiko has always been under the 'Seiko' umbrella in Japan. After all, until recently, Grand Seiko was only available in Japan. I guess they could have created another identity for the rest of the World, but how much traction would that have gained without having one of the most respected brands out there, with a long history of manufacturing watches, behind it?
> 
> ...


 If only Seiko marketed it as a seperate identity/brand, a bit like Lexus and Infinity, everyone knows who the parent company is but they are a seperate brand with their own identity.

Putting spring drive in a Seiko diver and charging £4.5k just doesnt sit right, even the name Grand Seiko is just not right, didnt Seiko make their mark by knocking out solid reliable workhorse watches, would you buy a Grand Skoda for what maybe 45 x the price of their base model just because its got a super high tech engine under the hood, i just dont see it as a viable model


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

neil wickham said:


> If only Seiko marketed it as a seperate identity/brand, a bit like Lexus and Infinity, everyone knows who the parent company is but they are a seperate brand with their own identity.
> 
> Putting spring drive in a Seiko diver and charging £4.5k just doesnt sit right, even the name Grand Seiko is just not right, didnt Seiko make their mark by knocking out solid reliable workhorse watches, would you buy a Grand Skoda for what maybe 45 x the price of their base model just because its got a super high tech engine under the hood, i just dont see it as a viable model


 My lad has a couple of mates originally from Hong Kong and their perception of the brand is completely the reverse. He has a Seiko Solar diver and they think its mega cool because of the name .... they actually work in reverse on this : because grand seiko make superior watches, then Seiko must also be awesome ... so different cultures just view things differently. I do get the Branding issue with GS .... but I also find it refreshing that other nations are less straight jacketed in their thinking .... diversity is the most over used word of this century after all ... :laugh:


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## Caller. (Dec 8, 2013)

Watch Seeker said:


> If you select movement type on the Seiko UK website, select Spring Drive - The search brings up 8 examples all badged as Seiko. They sit above "King Seiko" but below "Grand Seiko" in the range of watches.


 Well, the link you provided show they are sold under the prospex range. Understandably, as they are dive watches. So they don't sit above King and below Grand, they sit as Prospex.

Edit: But as Grand Seiko also sell dive watches, I guess there must be a reason while these were placed in the prospex range and not Grand Seiko, but that's another question....


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> .... said no one ever .... :laugh:
> 
> There .. sorted that for you.


 I don't think people who can't distinguish seiko from grand seiko should be called shallow.


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> It's all relative. Down here in civilisation no ones cares about what sunglasses/watch brands other people are wearing on a night out... If anyone started trying to big themselves up with brand names then they would be laughed at royally .... it would be embarrassing .... just a cultural divide .... There are a few sink estates where the thieving chavs take selfies with stolen JD sports stuff with their "gangsta" hand gestures , but they are just kids .... no old geezers act like that .... seriously they don't. But I am glad the Harry Enfield show is alive and well "erp neerth" :thumbsup:
> 
> Gotta say this does show that the Seiko Branding needs a tweak ... Surely clear water should exist between GS and Seiko core stuff but increasingly its getting blurred ... this can not be good in the long run ... !?


 100% agree. It seems a bit of a muddle to me. And if it turns out, as I suspect it will, that these premium priced Spring Drive Seikos get 50% knocked of them to sell. There's going to be some very pi55ed off Grand Seiko owners out there.



Caller. said:


> Well, the link you provided show they are sold under the prospex range. Understandably, as they are dive watches. So they don't sit above King and below Grand, they sit as Prospex.
> 
> Edit: But as Grand Seiko also sell dive watches, I guess there must be a reason while these were placed in the prospex range and not Grand Seiko, but that's another question....


 Actually, I omitted to say, the actual spring drive Seiko range is called "LX" and as I said, sits above "King Seiko". And below "Grand Seiko".

If you look at the Seiko website there's 8 spring drive Seiko watches in the "LX" range. It's just that the one I linked to happens to be a dive watch. The others are not dive watches.

But I agree, with the additional Prospex cross branding as well, it is a huge mess. In fact it's more than a mess.

I predict at least 50% off Spring Drive Seikos soon and a whole lot of pi55ed off Grand Seiko owners. Then, hey presto after Seiko drop the Spring Drive watches, in 20 years time, they'll be sought after collectors pieces. Anyone going to bet against me?


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> If you select movement type on the Seiko UK website, select Spring Drive - The search brings up 8 examples all badged as Seiko. They sit above "King Seiko" but below "Grand Seiko" in the range of watches. The Seiko Spring Drive watches range from £4100 to £5400 list price. I know they have a superb movement, but in the overall scheme of things a £5 grand Seiko is a hard sell? I expect in due course massive discounts to be had.
> 
> Here's one of them - https://www.seikowatches.com/uk-en/products/prospex/snr025j1


 Thanks for that.

yeh I agree a 5k Seiko is a hard sell, but in a world where TAG have their Monaco's and Carreras priced above 5k I think anything goes!


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> It's all relative. Down here in civilisation no ones cares about what sunglasses/watch brands other people are wearing on a night out... If anyone started trying to big themselves up with brand names then they would be laughed at royally .... it would be embarrassing .... just a cultural divide .... There are a few sink estates where the thieving chavs take selfies with stolen JD sports stuff with their "gangsta" hand gestures , but they are just kids .... no old geezers act like that .... seriously they don't. But I am glad the Harry Enfield show is alive and well "erp neerth" :thumbsup:












:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> Thanks for that.
> 
> yeh I agree a 5k Seiko is a hard sell, but in a world where TAG have their Monaco's and Carreras priced above 5k I think anything goes!


 Very fair comment. I also think fair to say the population at large would take a £5000 TAG before the Seiko every single time.

But you know, if I see the £2500 spring drive Seiko as I expect I will. Well, that's one I would buy and tuck away for a rainy day.


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

chas g said:


> I don't think people who can't distinguish seiko from grand seiko should be called shallow.


 @JonnyOldBoy - the classifieds are a typical example of the range of seiko pricing. SPB239 £700 or an SLA051 £1700. I don't have a clue what warrants such a variation in asking price. The other day there were 2 seikos in sales corner which looked very similar but there was a big difference in price.


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## Bricey (Apr 7, 2021)

chas g said:


> @JonnyOldBoy - the classifieds are a typical example of the range of seiko pricing. SPB239 £700 or an SLA051 £1700. I don't have a clue what warrants such a variation in asking price. The other day there were 2 seikos in sales corner which looked very similar but there was a big difference in price.


 It's this that keeps me away from Seiko, I simply don't know enough to be sure I'm not paying a grand for a second hand watch that would have cost £100 new 2 years ago.

So many models that look so similar to each other but cover a massive price range.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

chas g said:


> @JonnyOldBoy - the classifieds are a typical example of the range of seiko pricing. SPB239 £700 or an SLA051 £1700. I don't have a clue what warrants such a variation in asking price. The other day there were 2 seikos in sales corner which looked very similar but there was a big difference in price.





Bricey said:


> It's this that keeps me away from Seiko, I simply don't know enough to be sure I'm not paying a grand for a second hand watch that would having cost £100 new 2 years ago.
> 
> So many models that look so similar to each other but cover a massive price range.


 It's down to spending a bit of time studying the spec, movement reference etc. Rolex, in a word may say a lot without have to dig any deeper, Seiko takes a bit more time and effort.


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## Bricey (Apr 7, 2021)

WRENCH said:


> It's down to spending a bit of time studying the spec, movement reference etc. Rolex, in a word may say a lot without have to dig any deeper, Seiko takes a bit more time and effort.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

Bricey said:


> View attachment 47193


 That's why many miss out on a lot of decent stuff, and end up getting completely shafted with others. :laughing2dw:


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Bricey said:


> It's this that keeps me away from Seiko, I simply don't know enough to be sure I'm not paying a grand for a second hand watch that would have cost £100 new 2 years ago.
> 
> So many models that look so similar to each other but cover a massive price range.


 I think that's a very good point and one that kept me away from Seiko/ grand seiko for a very long time.

it's a watch company that you can't just take their catalogue on face value, you need to look into the watches to see how they've justified the prices.

take my Captain Willard for example. £1000 for a Seiko? WTF?!….but then it has a sapphire crystals, amazing rubber bracelet, bezel feel is top notch as is dial…oh and the movement is running +3 seconds a day since I've owned it so well within COSC.

When you add all this in £1000 for that spec of watch seems like a bargain, Tudor, TAG, Longines are charging double that!



WRENCH said:


> That's why many miss out on a lot of decent stuff, and end up getting completely shafted with others. :laughing2dw:


 Personally I think research is part of the fun….it also slows my watch buying down meaning I spend less and make less mistakes


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

neil wickham said:


> If only Seiko marketed it as a seperate identity/brand, a bit like Lexus and Infinity, everyone knows who the parent company is but they are a seperate brand with their own identity.
> 
> Putting spring drive in a Seiko diver and charging £4.5k just doesnt sit right, even the name Grand Seiko is just not right, didnt Seiko make their mark by knocking out solid reliable workhorse watches, would you buy a Grand Skoda for what maybe 45 x the price of their base model just because its got a super high tech engine under the hood, i just dont see it as a viable model


 Good analogy, love the Grand Skoda idea! Instead of Grand Skoda, it's called Lamborghini.


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

Watch Seeker said:


> Good analogy, love the Grand Skoda idea! Instead of Grand Skoda, it's called Lamborghini.


 Even when Seiko tries premium branding they do it oddly.

"Crêts d'Or" (golden crests) -- could have been a magical (if unJapanese) name. But, fearful that our transatlantic cousins might be too dim to cope, they made it Credor -- which is redolent of not much at all.


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

yokel said:


> Even when Seiko tries premium branding they do it oddly.
> 
> "Crêts d'Or" (golden crests) -- could have been a magical (if unJapanese) name. But, fearful that our transatlantic cousins might be too dim to cope, they made it Credor -- which is redolent of not much at all.


 Agreed. The present branding strategy of Seiko is an utter mess as I said elsewhere yesterday.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

chas g said:


> @JonnyOldBoy - the classifieds are a typical example of the range of seiko pricing. SPB239 £700 or an SLA051 £1700. I don't have a clue what warrants such a variation in asking price. The other day there were 2 seikos in sales corner which looked very similar but there was a big difference in price.


 .... we are supposed to be fairly knowledgable here on the Forum .... I get the muddied waters with Seiko Branding in the middle sandwich zone , but can't really see how anyone with a switched on watch hobby brain can get confused regard Grand Seiko , they are awesome , clearly on inspection. Coupled with the fact that some Rolex Willy Wavers [ disclaimer - not all Rolex owners are Willy Wavers ] are wearing comparable and some would argue inferior watched that cost 3 times as much , then to me the relative ends of the ignorance spectrum are fairly stark. No offence by the way, not suggesting you are ignorant, but for me its not hard to appreciate GS watches ... :thumbsup:


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

yokel said:


> Credor


 It does sound like "world of sofas" or "Oakland furniture".


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

yokel said:


> Even when Seiko tries premium branding they do it oddly.
> 
> "Crêts d'Or" (golden crests) -- could have been a magical (if unJapanese) name. But, fearful that our transatlantic cousins might be too dim to cope, they made it Credor -- which is redolent of not much at all.


 I thought Credor were Refrigerators ... !?!? [ And not exactly splendid ones ]


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> I thought Credor were Refrigerators ... !?!? [ And not exactly splendid ones ]


 Almost......

:laughing2dw:


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

Perhaps they thought, well Tudor works works for Rolex, Credor will work for us


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

neil wickham said:


> Perhaps they thought, well Tudor works works for Rolex, Credor will work for us


 I think we also tend to forget that a large part of Seikos market is Japan, what might seem strange marketing to Europeans actually makes perfect sense in the East.


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

WickerBill said:


> I think we also tend to forget that a large part of Seikos market is Japan, what might seem strange marketing to Europeans actually makes perfect sense in the East.


 Yes you're right, a lot is lost in translation. But what could they achieve if they were to westernise the GS brand and truly promote it i wonder


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

neil wickham said:


> Yes you're right, a lot is lost in translation. But what could they achieve if they were to westernise the GS brand and truly promote it i wonder


 Yes, I wonder. I have dealt with Japanese companies and worked for one for two years. These people are far from daft. Which is all the more mystifying to me why the marketing over here seems to be in such a pickle with their branding and sub branding.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

neil wickham said:


> Yes you're right, a lot is lost in translation. But what could they achieve if they were to westernise the GS brand and truly promote it i wonder


 Maybe, or maybe Grand Seiko would lose its individuality If it tried to become too Swiss…


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

WickerBill said:


> Maybe, or maybe Grand Seiko would lose its individuality If it tried to become too Swiss…


 I don't think they have to become Swiss, i mean Lexus and Infinity are very Japanese in a lot of ways, just create their own branding, so maybe the layman didn't have that initial thought " ah Seiko right " then the perceived luxury would increase, maybe?


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

neil wickham said:


> I don't think they have to become Swiss, i mean Lexus and Infinity are very Japanese in a lot of ways, just create their own branding, so maybe the layman didn't have that initial thought " ah Seiko right " then the perceived luxury would increase, maybe?


 I think the best think Lexus has over toyota is the name, and it's probably where grand seiko went wrong all those years back. If they'd have used Credor instead of grand SEIKO then it wouldn't have the stigma…

…silly thing is though once you're wearing the watches you forget about the name and just smile at how good they are.


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## Caller. (Dec 8, 2013)

Watch Seeker said:


> Agreed. The present branding strategy of Seiko is an utter mess as I said elsewhere yesterday.


 Ahhhhhh, but Credor is no longer part of Seiko. It's just another brand they wholly own! 

To be honest, I think there is a lot more method to their madness that there was before and I think it will continue to improve. I don't know what it is like elsewhere, but here the presentation of their models is clear and uncluttered. Usually, a small range of Alba watches are physically attached in a separate display case, to the Seiko stands, nearby will be Grand Seiko and Orient. I don't think I have ever seen Lorus or Pulsar here.

Seiko Credor used to be sold with Grand Seiko, but have now gone awol, although I wonder whether they might occupy a small corner of their boutique in Bangkok? I will have a look next time in Bkk in a couple of weeks


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> I thought Credor were Refrigerators ... !?!? [ And not exactly splendid ones ]


 Creodoor did you say? :hmmm9uh:










:laugh: :laugh:



neil wickham said:


> Perhaps they thought, well Tudor works works for Rolex, Credor will work for us


 Or Chewder perhaps? :laughing2dw:


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

On the 'for sale' section of Uhrforum there is a no-date Sub (114060), full set, for which the private seller is looking for €12800. It's been there for twenty days now without response.

There are still several members advertising that they want a Sub, so (unless the vendor is particularly unpopular) the issue is probably the price.

Further evidence that the days of naming telephone numbers may be fading.


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

yokel said:


> On the 'for sale' section of Uhrforum there is a no-date Sub (114060), full set, for which the private seller is looking for €12800. It's been there for twenty days now without response.
> 
> There are still several members advertising that they want a Sub, so (unless the vendor is particularly unpopular) the issue is probably the price.
> 
> Further evidence that the days of naming telephone numbers may be fading.


 Theres a sub date on sales corner on the other side for £12k, just about list plus 50% !!

So much anecdotal evidence now that they are coming through quicker and with waiting lists shrinking rapidly as the speculators are no longer interested, why would you buy at that??


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

neil wickham said:


> So much anecdotal evidence now that they are coming through quicker and with waiting lists shrinking rapidly as the speculators are no longer interested, why would you buy at that??


 The answer to that question is - when you want one, have the money burning a hole in your pocket, wonder whether you will die of old age before you can get one at rrp, it's driving you mad thinking about it.

Solution. Put your hand in your pocket, pay and enjoy. Simples :thumbsup:


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

chas g said:


> The answer to that question is - when you want one, have the money burning a hole in your pocket, wonder whether you will die of old age before you can get one at rrp, it's driving you mad thinking about it.
> 
> Solution. Put your hand in your pocket, pay and enjoy. Simples :thumbsup:


 It's a watch for goodness' sake.

There is another solution. If a supplier claims not to be able to supply you until you have been on a waiting list for decades, and have bought at least two precious metal pieces you didn't want -- change horses. There really is plenty of choice out there.

You don't have to be be :watch: -- you could be :clap: :wicked: :wicked:


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

yokel said:


> It's a watch for goodness' sake.
> 
> There is another solution. If a supplier claims not to be able to supply you until you have been on a waiting list for decades, and have bought at least two precious metal pieces you didn't want -- change horses. There really is plenty of choice out there.
> 
> You don't have to be be :watch: -- you could be :clap: :wicked: :wicked:


 Not if you have an obsessive personalty


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

chas g said:


> Not if you have an obsessive personalty


 Its the old, " i cant get one so i must get one" :laugh:


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

More.

https://www.watchpro.com/prices-slump-by-up-to-50-for-discontinued-rolex-watches/


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WRENCH said:


> More.
> 
> https://www.watchpro.com/prices-slump-by-up-to-50-for-discontinued-rolex-watches/


 My, I find premia like in that article absolutely insane. Really, who in fact pays a 40000 Euro premium on a 5400 Euro watch? I would love to meet that person. I have a bag of magic beans for sale.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

Watch Seeker said:


> My, I find premia like in that article absolutely insane. Really, who in fact pays a 40000 Euro premium on a 5400 Euro watch? I would love to meet that person. I have a bag of magic beans for sale.


 It made me wonder. Any of the coloured dial Rolex I've seen in "aftermarket dealers" windows have been around double RRP, and they didn't hang around long.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Watch Seeker said:


> My, I find premia like in that article absolutely insane. Really, who in fact pays a 40000 Euro premium on a 5400 Euro watch? I would love to meet that person. I have a bag of magic beans for sale.


 A female Pro Tennis player was spotted in London in 2021 buying a £25,000 OP [ pale blue dial ]. I guess it's lots of people who earn around 5-10 million a year .. :thumbsup:


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## SolaVeritate (Mar 21, 2021)

WRENCH said:


> More.
> 
> https://www.watchpro.com/prices-slump-by-up-to-50-for-discontinued-rolex-watches/


 You can see the whole idea of madness in that report. Watches that originally cost 5000 have 'slumped' from 40000 to 20000 :crazy5vh:

I sit back and quietly chuckle up my sleeve as the tears gently roll down the side of my beer.

Popcorn anyone?


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WRENCH said:


> It made me wonder. Any of the coloured dial Rolex I've seen in "aftermarket dealers" windows have been around double RRP, and they didn't hang around long.


 Some Rolex window stock during the last 18 months was sold "twice" on demand. A dealer in Bournemouth sold a £9500 OP to a fellow trader for £8500 who then sold it for £10,500 to the guy in our local chippy [ there is obviously money in Fish-n-Chips ] He reckons this happened a lot during the pandemic months. I know Chrono24 were trying to clamp down also on drop shipping type listings whereby a trader offers for sale a watch that they have not yet got but will attempt to buy once they get the sale. There was a lot of that going on , less so now.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

There was an interesting video made on the TImeless Watch Channel last week. Oisin who runs the channel stated that he got sucked into the Rolex game through hype and investments, but ultimately since the latter has failed to materialise its opened his eyes and realised he wasnt collecting because he truely loved the watches.

TBH im thinking the same. Through an unfortunate breakup at the weekend ive had to sell a few of my watches. The IWC, Zenith and Seiko Turtle remain......the Rolexs and Tudors have gone.

Priorities change and you suddenly realise what you REALLY cherish


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> There was an interesting video made on the TImeless Watch Channel last week. Oisin who runs the channel stated that he got sucked into the Rolex game through hype and investments, but ultimately since the latter has failed to materialise its opened his eyes and realised he wasnt collecting because he truely loved the watches.
> 
> TBH im thinking the same. Through an unfortunate breakup at the weekend ive had to sell a few of my watches. The IWC, Zenith and Seiko Turtle remain......the Rolexs and Tudors have gone.
> 
> Priorities change and you suddenly realise what you REALLY cherish


 Sorry to hear that but on that list, I'd have sold those too and kept the others.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> Sorry to hear that but on that list, I'd have sold those too and kept the others.


 Thanks, Yeh its sad but not unexpected.

Just shows that no matter how secure you think you are, life can throw a curveball at times!

On the bright side, ive been looking at slimming down my collection for a while so its actaully got some positive side effects.


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## SolaVeritate (Mar 21, 2021)

Sorry to hear about anyone that's lost any "investment money"..

Well.. no.. not really.. well about 50/50.. but buying a watch should just be about paying your money and getting an item. Unfortunately, building a bubble costs normal buyers that money those investors cash in on.

Is it easy to fleece the idiotic.. probably. Create a hype for the ones that are able to create it, then jump on those stupid enough to believe it and take the cash and leave the hot potato for those that can't juggle.

Maybe I'm half and half because it looks like the creators are cashing in and leaving the others to juggle.

Now wouldn't it be nice to all get together and "jump out" at top dollar causing the bubble to burst only to buy the same "investments" back at 1/4 the price (apologies, this sounds like Boris and his mob continually crashing the pound on purpose..  ). Repeat and rinse.

My popcorn is still available to purchase at a higher price.

EDIT.. Please note.. this post has been highly influenced by alcohol :crazy5vh:


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## RTM Boy (Jun 1, 2011)

WRENCH said:


> It made me wonder. Any of the coloured dial Rolex I've seen in "aftermarket dealers" windows have been around double RRP, and they didn't hang around long.


 Dealers selling on to other dealers? Like the old joke about 6 antiques dealers ship-wrecked on a desert island and all they salvaged was a 17th century commode; they each made a profit...!



JonnyOldBoy said:


> Some Rolex window stock during the last 18 months was sold "twice" on demand. A dealer in Bournemouth sold a £9500 OP to a fellow trader for £8500 who then sold it for £10,500 to the guy in our local chippy [ there is obviously money in Fish-n-Chips ] He reckons this happened a lot during the pandemic months. I know Chrono24 were trying to clamp down also on drop shipping type listings whereby a trader offers for sale a watch that they have not yet got but will attempt to buy once they get the sale. There was a lot of that going on , less so now.


 Lots of dodgy things have gone on. But are these the same chippies who've on the BBC News complaining about the price of wrapping papers saying it'll put them out of business? :hmmm9uh:

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/rf9WTgaTKcE?feature=oembed

:laugh: :laugh:



WickerBill said:


> There was an interesting video made on the TImeless Watch Channel last week. Oisin who runs the channel stated that he got sucked into the Rolex game through hype and investments, but ultimately since the latter has failed to materialise its opened his eyes and realised he wasnt collecting because he truely loved the watches.
> 
> TBH im thinking the same. Through an unfortunate breakup at the weekend ive had to sell a few of my watches. The IWC, Zenith and Seiko Turtle remain......the Rolexs and Tudors have gone.
> 
> Priorities change and you suddenly realise what you REALLY cherish


 I'm very sorry to hear your news. It may be no consolation, but I've gone through something similar in terms of financial needs, albeit for different reasons, and consequently my current favourite wears are my battered yet astonishingly accurate 13-year-old Pulsar Kinetic quartz field watch that cost only £50 when new, and a Steeldive 1970 Willard (courtesy of another WTF member), which is a joy and reminds me what a brilliant design the Willard was and I've learned that it's not the price tag, but the wearing experience that counts.


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

The bubble? I saw this afternoon there's some bl**dy insane pricing on eBay at the moment still. Will stuff actually sell at those asking prices. Not so sure.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

RTM Boy said:


> 6 antiques dealers ship-wrecked on a desert island and all they salvaged was a 17th century commode; they each made a deposit...!


 Fixed that. :thumbsup:


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Watch Seeker said:


> The bubble? I saw this afternoon there's some bl**dy insane pricing on eBay at the moment still. Will stuff actually sell at those asking prices. Not so sure.


 I just checked a couple randomly with a listing tool I use and the achieved priced trends are down on all .. this suggests the watches are mostly not currently selling at those prices ..


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## Elliebea28 (9 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> There was an interesting video made on the TImeless Watch Channel last week. Oisin who runs the channel stated that he got sucked into the Rolex game through hype and investments, but ultimately since the latter has failed to materialise its opened his eyes and realised he wasnt collecting because he truely loved the watches.
> 
> TBH im thinking the same. Through an unfortunate breakup at the weekend ive had to sell a few of my watches. The IWC, Zenith and Seiko Turtle remain......the Rolexs and Tudors have gone.
> 
> Priorities change and you suddenly realise what you REALLY cherish


 Sorry to hear about the breakup and watches. I hope everything works out for you.

I know how it feels to have to do that, but I hope you got a good price for them. I had to do the same with my jewellery when my first husband left me and our son. I'm sure you would get a much better return on watches (especially tudor and rolex) but it's very sobering to be stood in front of a dealer working out the material value of things with sentimental value. In the end its just a bunch of elements (gold, platinum, carbon etc) in various combinations....


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Elliebea28 said:


> Sorry to hear about the breakup and watches. I hope everything works out for you.
> 
> I know how it feels to have to do that, but I hope you got a good price for them. I had to do the same with my jewellery when my first husband left me and our son. I'm sure you would get a much better return on watches (especially tudor and rolex) but it's very sobering to be stood in front of a dealer working out the material value of things with sentimental value. In the end its just a bunch of elements (gold, platinum, carbon etc) in various combinations....


 Yeh its not a plesant experience to say the least, but got to look on the bright side, its forced me to stop going down the rabbit hole of buying expensive watches and concentrate on what really matters in life.

I lost money on them but not as much as i thought which is always good.

Just get the next few weeks out of the way and no doubt my head will be back in the game.....probably expanding my horizons into the more 'affordable' end of things, which is kind of exciting actually!


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Interesting situation in Hong Kong at the moment, the domestic pre-owned watch market seems to have ground to a halt, like pretty much nothing is selling.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Interesting situation in Hong Kong at the moment, the domestic pre-owned watch market seems to have ground to a halt, like pretty much nothing is selling.


 Doesnt surprise me tbh, its a perfect storm right now. High inflation, prices going up, confidence going down so pre owned prices going down which is bizzarely a bad thing because a lot of people wont buy high ticket items if theyre not sure about resale.

TBH im in the same position....wont be buying anything for a good while (breakup aside) there are now better things to be putting my money into (assuming all stays stable with the job side) like overpaying my mortgage etc...


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## Ugg10 (Nov 26, 2020)

WickerBill said:


> Doesnt surprise me tbh, its a perfect storm right now. High inflation, prices going up, confidence going down so pre owned prices going down which is bizzarely a bad thing because a lot of people wont buy high ticket items if theyre not sure about resale.
> 
> TBH im in the same position....wont be buying anything for a good while (breakup aside) there are now better things to be putting my money into (assuming all stays stable with the job side) like overpaying my mortgage etc...


 Best investment I ever made was to overpay the mortgage and get it cleared as quickly as possible, good choice and hope you come out the end not too badly scarred.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Ugg10 said:


> Best investment I ever made was to overpay the mortgage and get it cleared as quickly as possible, good choice and hope you come out the end not too badly scarred.


 Yeh fingers crossed. an extra £500 a month (or the price of a Rolex over a year) means paying it off 15 years early....id rather 'invest' in bricks and mortar at that point, enjoy the watches ive managed to save and enjoy buying pieces that are on the more affordable end of the spectrum.


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## Duncan U. (May 16, 2021)

WickerBill said:


> Yeh fingers crossed. an extra £500 a month (or the price of a Rolex over a year) means paying it off 15 years early....id rather 'invest' in bricks and mortar at that point, enjoy the watches ive managed to save and enjoy buying pieces that are on the more affordable end of the spectrum.


 Definitely a good decision, we managed to pay off our mortgage early, kept the under performing endowment going and then had some extremely useful money just when our daughters were going through university. I hope it works out well for you.

Although buying affordable watches won't make money, I find it more enjoyable as each decision doesn't have serious financial consequences, it's a bit like spending pocket money as a child :biggrin: . Also with the really inexpensive ones I am happy to buy something a bit different that being a conservative sort of person, I wouldn't normally dare to try, and can be fun.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Yep ! Another one to champion paying off the mortgage early, Temptation was huge back in the early 2000s for us when Wifey and I had a couple of massive contracts come in. We looked at big holidays, big cars, a bigger house, but then looked at the then two toddlers we had and just hammered the mortgage and got shot of it within 18 months. We never did move [ just build into the loft ] , bought a Grand Voyager and went camping to the Vendee for 6 years in a row. Never looked back. :thumbsup:


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Duncan U. said:


> Definitely a good decision, we managed to pay off our mortgage early, kept the under performing endowment going and then had some extremely useful money just when our daughters were going through university. I hope it works out well for you.
> 
> Although buying affordable watches won't make money, I find it more enjoyable as each decision doesn't have serious financial consequences, it's a bit like spending pocket money as a child :biggrin: . Also with the really inexpensive ones I am happy to buy something a bit different that being a conservative sort of person, I wouldn't normally dare to try, and can be fun.


 Thanks

Yeh absolutely, Youre right about buying more affordable watches is enjoyable because of the decreased financial consequences...its always why ive loved swatch watches

In terms of the mortgage, being self employed its pretty much my pension....try to get it paid off then retire, sell the house and buy a camper :laugh:


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## Rotundus (May 7, 2012)

WickerBill said:


> try to get it paid off then retire, sell the house and buy a camper :laugh:


 replace camper ( :thumbdown: ) with a small place in scotland with a decent garden and you have what we did. get the debt down and get out of the rat race - ok we made it from the rat race to the mouse stroll but i work less, eat and drink less (stopped smoking yonks ago)and will live longer and more happily. get a cat , that's good too.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Rotundus said:


> replace camper ( :thumbdown: ) with a small place in scotland with a decent garden and you have what we did. get the debt down and get out of the rat race - ok we made it from the rat race to the mouse stroll but i work less, eat and drink less (stopped smoking yonks ago)and will live longer and more happily. get a cat , that's good too.


 Haha good point, it's exactly what the parents have done!


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

I had just bought wife a new car and only had 3 or 4 months left on the mortgage. Something I dreamed of - no debts, nice house, 3 cars and a motorbike, daughter had finished her maths modelling PhD and then the bomb shell " I don't want to be married to you anymore". Then she walked away with the lions share of everything. Taught me one thing and that was never trust anybody.

Regardless though, paying the mortgage off ASAP is a good idea because it gives you options.


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

chas g said:


> I had just bought wife a new car and only had 3 or 4 months left on the mortgage. Something I dreamed of - no debts, nice house, 3 cars and a motorbike, daughter had finished her maths modelling PhD and then the bomb shell " I don't want to be married to you anymore". Then she walked away with the lions share of everything. Taught me one thing and that was never trust anybody.
> 
> Regardless though, paying the mortgage off ASAP is a good idea because it gives you options.


 Similarly my ex took my motor, the only new car I've ever bought, only had it a couple of months. After getting that friendly with the local judge I was almost going for a pint with him and my lawyer had just bought a new Range Rover which presumably given the amount of cash her firm fleeced me for I had shares in I woke up one morning and thought you know what [email protected] it. I hired a skip and binned mostly all I was left with went to her lawyers office and tossed the keys of the house on the reception counter. I sent my daughter back to her mother's and I never even locked the doors or closed the windows.

Then Big M and I jumped on a plane and went to live in Singapore (I got a job there) after that we sent our respective significant others two fingers in the form of............

Postcards from Bondi Beach

:biggrin:

Best thing we ever did even if it was "winter" over there.










Sometimes the best parties are the one's you don't plan for.

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

BondandBigM said:


> Then Big M and I jumped on a plane and went to live in Singapore (I got a job there)


 .... as one does .... what job was that ? anywhere near the old Selita squadron airfield [ there was a lot of commercial and industrial out near there ? , assuming you were not in the financial sector ]. btw , this is not a pi55 take , genuinely interested. My late father was at RAF Selitar and had some wonderful times out there. A lot of his old RAF mates stayed out there and worked in various engineering companies. They were originally ground crew and engineers for the Gloucester meteor squadrons.


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

@BondandBigM excellent post. Brave but you probably did the right thing and good to hear it all turned out well :thumbsup:


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> .... as one does .... what job was that ? anywhere near the old Selita squadron airfield [ there was a lot of commercial and industrial out near there ? , assuming you were not in the financial sector ]. btw , this is not a pi55 take , genuinely interested. My late father was at RAF Selitar and had some wonderful times out there. A lot of his old RAF mates stayed out there and worked in various engineering companies. They were originally ground crew and engineers for the Gloucester meteor squadrons.


 I worked for an engineering services outfit and back in the day we were bought out by a big multi national that had facilities pretty much all over the world, where they went we followed and at the time there was a job going in Singapore so given my circumstances then I stuck my hand up for it.

I have been fortunate enough to travel the world and someone else paid.





chas g said:


> @BondandBigM excellent post. Brave but you probably did the right thing and good to hear it all turned out well :thumbsup:


 I don't know about brave I just took a chance, I hadn't know Big M all that long but offered to buy her a ticket rather than just do one on her as she had let me stay at her place after giving the house up and thinking with all the hassle she was also having with her husband and kids she wouldn't go .

She said yes, not a moment's hesitation. On the jet plane.

:huh:

Out of the frying pan into the fire springs to mind. Pretty much the story of my life.

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## Bricey (Apr 7, 2021)

https://www.watchpro.com/chronext-lays-off-almost-one-third-of-its-workforce-as-secondary-watch-market-flips/?utm_medium=push&utm_source=notifications&amp=1


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

Bricey said:


> https://www.watchpro.com/chronext-lays-off-almost-one-third-of-its-workforce-as-secondary-watch-market-flips/?utm_medium=push&utm_source=notifications&amp=1


 Never good to hear about people losing their jobs. But posh watches are always going to be one of the first items the majority of folks will delay buying when their leccy bill triples. It's a healthy sign in the market.


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Bricey said:


> https://www.watchpro.com/chronext-lays-off-almost-one-third-of-its-workforce-as-secondary-watch-market-flips/?utm_medium=push&utm_source=notifications&amp=1


 Thanks for posting. It would be lovely if preowned watch prices fell to the level about 5 years ago so i could indulge myself.

Can't remember if I have posted this before but a company will supply and fit one of the hard to get rolex coloured dials eg Tiffany blue etc for £1000

https://www.time4diamonds.com/custom-green-dial-for-rolex-datejust-45.html

I tried a hulk on when I got my GMT2 from Mappin and Webb but decided there was too much green so bought the standard black face and bezel (£5300 :biggrin: )

I would have liked one with the green bezel though and ignoring the current situation I wonder why you can't simply specify what colour bezel you want.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

I notice the prices slowly creeping down in the local pawn shops. Is there a bit of schadenfreude involved in this thread ? :hmmm9uh:


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

WRENCH said:


> I notice the prices slowly creeping down in the local pawn shops. Is there a bit of schadenfreude involved in this thread ? :hmmm9uh:


 The prices of preowned Rolex watches are definitely going down. The ones that went up the most are falling the most (watchfinder have a "sale" on at the moment). Schadenfreude - Rolex are the brand people like to hate. Some of the reasons for the dislike are understandably. I always thought they were well made robust watches that I was happy to wear doing the gardening etc or going somewhere nice in a suit but definitely not a luxury brand.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

WRENCH said:


> I notice the prices slowly creeping down in the local pawn shops. Is there a bit of schadenfreude involved in this thread ? :hmmm9uh:


 I would hope not, having said that i dont have much sympathy for flippers who tend to buy watches on credit, not pay their fair share of tax on the profit from flipping.

Im not saying that everyone does this but there have been plenty of youtube videos about this practice.

Its certianly not nice hearing about Chronext, theyre a really good company to buy from. I think a combination of Brexit (they used to source their watches from Europe at a cheaper price), meaning since Brexit their prices have increased because they can no longer do this, and the lack of demand means they are just not competative anymore.

I think we might see the same thing with Watchfinder in months to come. They are overpriced to cover their rather large outgoings....youll probably find the local jeweller with lower overheads, whos been in this game for a long time might come out of all this besst.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

WickerBill said:


> I would hope not, having said that i dont have much sympathy for flippers who tend to buy watches on credit, not pay their fair share of tax on the profit from flipping.
> 
> Im not saying that everyone does this but there have been plenty of youtube videos about this practice.
> 
> ...


 I don't disagree with what you say, and the same applies to many other products across a wide range. The source price has now become uncompetitive for the UK for a number of reasons. The demand is still there, but the product isn't at the price people are willing to pay given the current climate. I also know a few who bought out of "COVID/lockdown boredom" as they'd saved a bit by not being able to spend on holidays etc. Pretty much the same is happening with the classic motorcycle market. Silly prices for everyday ordinary stuff is slowing down as well. Re Chronotext, I wonder what the job description of those who are losing there jobs would be ?


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

I should think we're only at the start of a correction in bubble assets.

Given that prices of things generally overshoot and undershoot fair value, there's no rush to be a buyer, just yet. I'm guessing around February 2023 when credit card bills land and domestic energy prices have had two more already scheduled increases might be an interesting time to be a buyer. There could be significant unsold inventory lying around by then too.

A 50% chance I will be right


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> I should think we're only at the start of a correction in bubble assets.
> 
> Given that prices of things generally overshoot and undershoot fair value, there's no rush to be a buyer, just yet. I'm guessing around February 2023 when credit card bills land and domestic energy prices have had two more already scheduled increases might be an interesting time to be a buyer. There could be significant unsold inventory lying around by then too.
> 
> A 50% chance I will be right


 Yeh i find the predictions interesting.

In Feb - Grey dealers saying its just a blip from mad prices in December

In April - Its just because of the Crypto Crash

In May/ June - Its Chinas lockdown fault

In July - Its just because of the slow summer months...just traditionally bad

August and September? - Who knows, but if it doesnt get any better come end of October i dont see it getting better after that with the increase in energy costs, reduction in disposible income.....

....you may say that wealthy people who can afford these pieces arent affected but one of my friends (who would traditionally buy 3-4 watches a year) has just renewed his energy...its gone from £250 a month to £916!!!!!....thats his watch budget wiped out on keeping his house warm.

Im with you, i can see things going down further, the more speculators realise that the massive profits over the last few years arent there in the short term, they will reduce demand....add that to the reduction of demand from the average joe and it wouldnt take much for large sales to happen.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

WickerBill said:


> Yeh i find the predictions interesting.
> 
> In Feb - Grey dealers saying its just a blip from mad prices in December
> 
> ...


 The point being there are plenty of handy excuses, when the reality is no one really knows what's round the corner.


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

WickerBill said:


> Yeh i find the predictions interesting.
> 
> In Feb - Grey dealers saying its just a blip from mad prices in December
> 
> ...


 Typical dealer "confidence trick" to try to reassure their buyers.

Yes, definitely with Schadenfreude -- I think there is a reasonable chance of a blood bath in the trade. And, in many cases, it could not happen to a nicer set of folks :wicked:


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> Yeh i find the predictions interesting.
> 
> In Feb - Grey dealers saying its just a blip from mad prices in December
> 
> ...


 :thumbsup:

I am sitting here with money waiting for the right time/right watch combination to arrive.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

WRENCH said:


> The point being there are plenty of handy excuses, when the reality is no one really knows what's round the corner.


 Indeed.



yokel said:


> Typical dealer "confidence trick" to try to reassure their buyers.
> 
> Yes, definitely with Schadenfreude -- I think there is a reasonable chance of a blood bath in the trade. And, in many cases, it could not happen to a nicer set of folks :wicked:


 Yup I think there have been plenty of that, but that's no different to any business, project an air of calm as the world is burning around you.

I think there are some genuinely good folks in the business….that have been in the business for a long time, but there have also been a few that have popped up in the last few years which have been opportunistic at the expense of the hobby. If we can get back to dealing with more of the former and less of the latter that may not be a bad thing.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

The local High Street chain widows are empty of decent stuff, which says a lot, when you compare with the local independents. Possibly the "big boys" don't want stock tied up in a backwater place, who knows?


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

ADs near me are selling practically nothing at the moment ... all holding their nerve, but I smell a sales season in the wind ... too many of them selling too many over-priced propositions.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

WRENCH said:


> The local High Street chain widows are empty of decent stuff, which says a lot, when you compare with the local independents. Possibly the "big boys" don't want stock tied up in a backwater place, who knows?


 Yeh not sure. Certainly if you look at pre owned chains like watch finder, Chronext etc they are saturated with watches that don't seem to be shifting. My local WOS, Ernest Jones seem to have stock in but only 1 or 2 of each piece where as they used to stock loads….whether that's down to lack of supply, high demand Ie sales or them edging their bets and only getting in a couple of pieces at a time I'm not sure.

I suppose only time will tell…..that's of course for people that are in the game….which I'm not at the moment…interesting to see non the less…

.….it's actually been interesting to see the type and quantity of watches for sale on watch finder which has massively increased in the higher end pieces of late. I'm not sure if that's large collectors selling pieces, or watch finders safe opening up to sell high ticket items but it's certainly not the norm of the last 12 months or so



JonnyOldBoy said:


> ADs near me are selling practically nothing at the moment ... all holding their nerve, but I smell a sales season in the wind ... too many of them selling too many over-priced propositions.


 Absolutely. Proper sales are on their way. Think they're holding until September/ October….if things don't return I see heavy sales coming like we used to have, just to cover their costs. They can't last forever selling nothing AND pay the bills

Just my luck that I'm not in the bloody market for anything


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## Ugg10 (Nov 26, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> :thumbsup:
> 
> I am sitting here with money waiting for the right time/right watch combination to arrive.


 My yardstick will be when I can get a Rolex Explorer 39mm for £5k (20% down or RRP when new). I'm not holding my breath!!!


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

Ugg10 said:


> My yardstick will be when I can get a Rolex Explorer 39mm for £5k (20% down or RRP when new). I'm not holding my breath!!!


 Never say never. If we see a deep and prolonged recession it's possible. But, yes, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting either.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> Never say never. If we see a deep and prolonged recession it's possible. But, yes, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting either.


 Let's hope that's not the case. Not sure I'd want to see a recession just to get a watch (I'm not suggesting you implied that btw!)


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WickerBill said:


> Let's hope that's not the case. Not sure I'd want to see a recession just to get a watch (I'm not suggesting you implied that btw!)


 I think a technical recession is already baked in ,,,,


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> I think a technical recession is already baked in ,,,,


 Oh no doubt. Let's just hope it's a mild short one. I really do fear for people with rising inflation, energy bills and supply issues post covid and brexit


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## SolaVeritate (Mar 21, 2021)

"Luxury watches" is subjective.

Right now.. any watch over £100 is a luxury watch to me. Which places me neatly in the position of owning about 10 :thumbsup:

It's a funny old world.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

SolaVeritate said:


> "Luxury watches" is subjective.
> 
> Right now.. any watch over £100 is a luxury watch to me. Which places me neatly in the position of owning about 10 :thumbsup:
> 
> It's a funny old world.


 Yeh i think we all see 'luxury' differently, however if we take the actual definition

"an inessential, desirable item which is expensive or difficult to obtain."

Then actual luxury in the watch world would only be attributed to certain brands like Rolex, AP, Patek and a few high end independants.

Im not even sure you can call Omega or IWC luxury, because despite the price they arent difficult to obtain.

of course 'difficult to obtain ' is subjective.....depending on your disposible income.....ironically owning a house can probably be seen as a luxury item these days.


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

Well this quote from The Times today, and there's a lot more doom besides -



> Britain is heading for a protracted recession as inflation surges above 13 per cent, causing the worst squeeze on living standards for more than 60 years, the Bank of England has warned.


 I'm sticking by my thinking that by February next year, the market for posh stuff generally and high end watches in particular is going to be much softer.

I am looking to buy, but I am in no hurry.


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

Watch Seeker said:


> Well this quote from The Times today, and there's a lot more doom besides -
> 
> I'm sticking by my thinking that by February next year, the market for posh stuff generally and high end watches in particular is going to be much softer.
> 
> I am looking to buy, but I am in no hurry.


 Yup

Filling the oil tank is going to be more expensive than an RO.

RO and several pullovers it is then.


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

yokel said:


> Yup
> 
> Filling the oil tank is going to be more expensive than an RO.
> 
> RO and several pullovers it is then.


 Yes, and why not? Got to get those carbon emissions down one way or another. :thumbsup:


----------



## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

Watch Seeker said:


> Well this quote from The Times today, and there's a lot more doom besides -
> 
> I'm sticking by my thinking that by February next year, the market for posh stuff generally and high end watches in particular is going to be much softer.
> 
> I am looking to buy, but I am in no hurry.


 Sit back, wait, and watch. And don't pay too much attention to the "experts". There are two ways things can go; Blow over, or blow up.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Some good deals already…..if I wasn't going through a separation right now, I'd have snapped it up

https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/Glashutte Original/Senator Sixties/39-47-06-02-04/38474/item/217239


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> Some good deals already…..if I wasn't going through a separation right now, I'd have snapped it up
> 
> https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/Glashutte Original/Senator Sixties/39-47-06-02-04/38474/item/217239


 Yes, if you look 25 to 30% off SRP deals in the grey market on a coule of very nice pieces. In no hurry though.

My next watch purchase is a retirement gift to myself and the last posh watch I'll likely buy.


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

Watch Seeker said:


> the last posh watch I'll likely buy.


 Gosh, I hate that -- accurate though it possibly is.

Since I have fully retired I keep finding myself saying (mainly to myself) "it's probably the last time I'll visit here (or do this)".

It makes me sound as though I'm just waiting to die :sadwalk:

I need to snap out of it, otherwise @Bricey will think he is imminently going to become a Moser owner :wicked:


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

yokel said:


> Gosh, I hate that -- accurate though it possibly is.
> 
> Since I have fully retired I keep finding myself saying (mainly to myself) "it's probably the last time I'll visit here (or do this)".
> 
> ...


 Oh dear. Yes. I see what you mean


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

Apparently,

https://manofmany.com/fashion/watches/crypto-collapse-impacts-watch-market


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## Bricey (Apr 7, 2021)

Is it fair to assume that this guy is an idiot and also that he's sure the bubble is breaking?

https://hypebeast.com/2022/8/collector-auctions-off-eleven-like-new-rolex-submariner-hulks


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Bricey said:


> Is it fair to assume that this guy is an idiot and also that he's sure the bubble is breaking?
> 
> https://hypebeast.com/2022/8/collector-auctions-off-eleven-like-new-rolex-submariner-hulks


 In any case they are not NOS "new old stock" , they are Pre-owned , second hand.


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> In any case they are not NOS "new old stock" , they are Pre-owned , second hand.


 Be a marginally interesting eight days.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

I Keep a close eye on Watchfinder and other pre owned dealers. Starting to see A LOT of large ticket items starting to come into the public realm at the moment, at the same time.....im starting to wonder if either 'collectors' or flippers/ over leveraged backpack dealers are starting to offload.

Interesting though because i think the other side of this are places like Bobs watches and David SW who are standing firm on their prices and just not selling much.

If you look at groups like MODA where dealers sell between themselves, the prices are coming down or going unsold

The next few months could be pretty interesting, ive been badgered 3 times in the last week from my local Rolex AD asking if i wanted the Explorer, despite telling them its not the right time, so they obviously dont have anyone else on 'the list'.....

Heading into Autumn/ Winter, how long can dealers/ flippers hold onto stock without reducing prices.....and when one major player falls, flooding the market with pieces, will it be a domino effect or will others be there with cash to pick up the pieces?

Ultimately though i dont really care, i havent got skin in the game and not in the market but do find it interesting to see how much value these 'assets' really have.


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

Bricey said:


> Is it fair to assume that this guy is an idiot and also that he's sure the bubble is breaking?
> 
> https://hypebeast.com/2022/8/collector-auctions-off-eleven-like-new-rolex-submariner-hulks


 Are the guide prices shown attainable? I guess we'll know next week.


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> In any case they are not NOS "new old stock" , they are Pre-owned , second hand.


 NOS normally come with a manufacturers warranty, do they not?

These are indeed second hand, unworn.

Second hand divers, without display backs, from a mass market manufacturer? Too many "no-nos" there. None of Yokel's shekels will be heading in that direction.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

yokel said:


> NOS normally come with a manufacturers warranty, do they not?
> 
> These are indeed second hand, unworn.
> 
> Second hand divers, without display backs, from a mass market manufacturer? Too many "no-nos" there. None of Yokel's shekels will be heading in that direction.


 A statesmanly summary ....

Incidentally , perhaps just co-incidence, but when I was in New York in the Autumn of 2017 me and the tribe were walking towards Lower Manhattan and there was this mini watch expo in the lobby and spilling outside of one of the hotels as you get near to MSG. I popped in and there were load of Flash Harry's flogging overpriced average watches to dumb rich tourists, but one of them had a windowed-case with half a dozen green Rolex divers, all marked NFS. Possible co-incidence !?, if it is the same guy, he was selling a significant amount of merch that day from what I could glean. So he maybe ain't no "collector" but just another grey market spiv.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> Are the guide prices shown attainable? I guess we'll know next week.


 It will be interesting

its a bit like whiskey collections. Individual bottles arent worth anywhere near as much as a collection or run of bottles. Selling his hulks like this is an interesting idea and may be attractive to certain buyers....but then again theyre all the same, mass produced items, unlike whiskey which changes from year to year. With Rolex its usually the first or last of a run that people are more interested in.


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## Ugg10 (Nov 26, 2020)

WickerBill said:


> It will be interesting
> 
> its a bit like whiskey collections. Individual bottles arent worth anywhere near as much as a collection or run of bottles. Selling his hulks like this is an interesting idea and may be attractive to certain buyers....but then again they're all the same, mass produced items, unlike whiskey which changes from year to year. With Rolex its usually the first or last of a run that people are more interested in.


 Reminds me of the guy who bought a bottle of 18yo Macallan every year for his son's birthday from birth. When the son got to 28 he decided to sell the collection and got £44k. However 11 Hulks at an estimate of $500k is a different matter (if bought as a single lot).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/a-28-year-old-sells-his-whisky-collection-and-buy-a-house-.html


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

WickerBill said:


> It will be interesting
> 
> its a bit like whiskey collections. Individual bottles arent worth anywhere near as much as a collection or run of bottles. Selling his hulks like this is an interesting idea and may be attractive to certain buyers....but then again theyre all the same, mass produced items, unlike whiskey which changes from year to year. With Rolex its usually the first or last of a run that people are more interested in.


 It's not true that they are all the same, for example with the original LV over the production years there were several subtle differences, bezel colour, slightly difference in fonts, three tick or five tick dials and so on, some didn't even have LV after the serial number but only on the swing tag. I read somewhere that there were MK1's - Mk8's I expect the Hulk thing will be similar so a full collection will almost certainly have some interest.


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> A statesmanly summary ....
> 
> Incidentally , perhaps just co-incidence, but when I was in New York in the Autumn of 2017 me and the tribe were walking towards Lower Manhattan and there was this mini watch expo in the lobby and spilling outside of one of the hotels as you get near to MSG. I popped in and there were load of Flash Harry's flogging overpriced average watches to dumb rich tourists, but one of them had a windowed-case with half a dozen green Rolex divers, all marked NFS. Possible co-incidence !?, if it is the same guy, he was selling a significant amount of merch that day from what I could glean. So he maybe ain't no "collector" but just another grey market spiv.


 Too much of a coincidence? Same person I would hazard a guess.


----------



## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

Watch Seeker said:


> Too much of a coincidence? Same person I would hazard a guess.


 Probably not










There are others posting all over social media, at one time they were relatively under valued and it was never a great seller. I remember my local AD had one in the window for absolutely ages and couldn't sell it. Price only really picked up after it was discontinued.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

BondandBigM said:


> It's not true that they are all the same, for example with the original LV over the production years there were several subtle differences, bezel colour, slightly difference in fonts, three tick or five tick dials and so on, some didn't even have LV after the serial number but only on the swing tag. I read somewhere that there were MK1's - Mk8's I expect the Hulk thing will be similar so a full collection will almost certainly have some interest.


 Production schedules I think are 18-22 months on average and watches are fully consistent within those time frames , so if that is the case then over 10 years there were probably 6 or 7 clear variants once scrutinised.


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## yokel (Jul 30, 2017)

BondandBigM said:


> I remember my local AD had one in the window for absolutely ages and couldn't sell it. Price only really picked up after it was discontinued. a certain influencer well known in this forum bought one.


 Fixed that for you Mr. B.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Watch Seeker said:


> Too much of a coincidence? Same person I would hazard a guess.


 What was very odd was that although it was coined an "expo" , it was clearly an organised sales event. But that case of greenies was the only group of watches I could see that was not for sale , and there must have been at least a thousand watches there. They were labelled not for sale, but from memory there was no years or variant info , I would have remembered that.


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Ugg10 said:


> Reminds me of the guy who bought a bottle of 18yo Macallan every year for his son's birthday from birth. When the son got to 28 he decided to sell the collection and got £44k. However 11 Hulks at an estimate of $500k is a different matter (if bought as a single lot).
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/a-28-year-old-sells-his-whisky-collection-and-buy-a-house-.html


 That's exactly the one I was thinking of!


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Tried on a hulk when I got my gmt from mappin and webb and it looked distinctly ordinary. Strange how black dial green bezel looks much crisper. Why anyone would buy more than one hulk is beyond me unless they already have buyers.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

chas g said:


> Tried on a hulk when I got my gmt from mappin and webb and it looked distinctly ordinary. Strange how black dial green bezel looks much crisper. Why anyone would buy more than one hulk is beyond me unless they already have buyers.


 TV chefs made them popular , before that , ADs struggled to sell them at full RRP.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

BondandBigM said:


> It's not true that they are all the same, for example with the original LV over the production years there were several subtle differences, bezel colour, slightly difference in fonts, three tick or five tick dials and so on, some didn't even have LV after the serial number but only on the swing tag. I read somewhere that there were MK1's - Mk8's I expect the Hulk thing will be similar so a full collection will almost certainly have some interest.


 Yes you're right of course, I should have said that I meant in broad terms…the collector will appreciate them like a whiskey collector hence the comparison. I would say the average Rolex buyer won't care though. I suspect if this collection sells then it will take a geek rather than an investor


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

Bricey said:


> Is it fair to assume that this guy is an idiot and also that he's sure the bubble is breaking?
> 
> https://hypebeast.com/2022/8/collector-auctions-off-eleven-like-new-rolex-submariner-hulks


 Unless he is a visionary and knew something nobody else did all those years ago :crazy5vh:


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

What is totally bizarre about that auction is the elephant in the room. As soon as any of them are "worn" or used, their "value" will fall. So presumably these are forever museum pieces !?


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## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

neil wickham said:


> Unless he is a visionary and knew something nobody else did all those years ago :crazy5vh:


 At one time back in the day they were cheap and regardless of the doom mongers here even although there is a bit of a financial thing going like or not historically they've mostly pretty much only ever went up in price so why not take a punt and buy up a few and shove them in a safe for a few years.

So prices might have softened but I'll bet they'll still go for more than he paid for them.

I wish I had bought a bag full of the original LV's instead of just one when they were £2850 a pop.



:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> What is totally bizarre about that auction is the elephant in the room. As soon as any of them are "worn" or used, their "value" will fall. So presumably these are forever museum pieces !?


 Yup! No different to unopened barbie dolls!

one of my friends who is an apple geek has always bought 2 of everything right from the first iPod….impressive collection of boxes in his study but worth a fortune until you open them!


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

WickerBill said:


> Yup! No different to unopened barbie dolls!


 Mmmmm. Doesn't make you a bad person though :thumbsup:


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

chas g said:


> Mmmmm. Doesn't make you a bad person though :thumbsup:


 Unless your name is Ken


----------



## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Production schedules I think are 18-22 months on average and watches are fully consistent within those time frames , so if that is the case then over 10 years there were probably 6 or 7 clear variants once scrutinised.


 There was someone posted a thread on the Vintage Rolex Forum a few years ago, the pictures disappeared with the Photobucket debacle but it was often referred to as being a well researched piece and a definitive guide to LV's it mentioned 8 variations over their production run.

I'll probably still have it on some well worn out laptop hard drive. I had a look but that forum is on this Tapatalk thing now, whatever there were several changes. As said though only the serious hard core collector will notice.

But that's why if it is a genuine collection all bought new buy the same person it might surprise a few of the casual naysayers that don't know any better and spend to much time with a chip on their shoulder b!tching and moaning how much they might actually go for.

As for inflation there's still money around, a bloke has just rocked up over the road in an immaculate old Roller, I'm guessing he's not to worried about the price of petrol or his leccy bill.

Red front door council housing, it's the place to live.

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Friend did want a GMT but they said there waiting list was closed.

I can see why they keep phoning him. He is buying other watches with each Rolex he gets. They are simply looking after a good customer with mutual benefit.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Jungle drums are saying that one of the reasons Rolex SS models are hitting Polish and UK ADs much quicker recently is because almost all the Russian export allocation from March onwards was re-allocated to just two or three European countries. Interesting.


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Jungle drums are saying that one of the reasons Rolex SS models are hitting Polish and UK ADs much quicker recently is because almost all the Russian export allocation from March onwards was re-allocated to just two or three European countries. Interesting.


 Hmmm. Plausible. I never thought about high end watch brands pulling out of Russia. But presumably that's what they will have done. At least officially.


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Watch Seeker said:


> Hmmm. Plausible. I never thought about high end watch brands pulling out of Russia. But presumably that's what they will have done. At least officially.


 Last month a Polish customer in Krakow posted on a FB page that his new Sub arrived in 12 weeks, he had no history, and the accompanying info was mostly in Polish, but there was a label in Russian !?


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Last month a Polish customer in Krakow posted on a FB page that his new Sub arrived in 12 weeks, he had no history, and the accompanying info was mostly in Polish, but there was a label in Russian !?


 Interesting. Sounds like the watch was on it's way to Russia and was diverted on the way.

Being a cynic, I would think that western luxury goods are still finding their way into Russia unofficially through third countries. Probably via China I would think.


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Watch Seeker said:


> Interesting. Sounds like the watch was on it's way to Russia and was diverted on the way.
> 
> Being a cynic, I would think that western luxury goods are still finding their way into Russia unofficially through third countries. Probably via China I would think.


 Russians are getting their watches mostly from Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar according to a journalist who posted on the Bart and Jack FB page last month....


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Jungle drums are saying that one of the reasons Rolex SS models are hitting Polish and UK ADs much quicker recently is because almost all the Russian export allocation from March onwards was re-allocated to just two or three European countries. Interesting.


 Doesn't surprise me, same happened during covid when the airports and China shut down.

In other news I've now had 4 phone calls from my local AD asking if I wanted that explorer….despite telling them no.

strikes me as though their 'waiting list' is somewhat diminishing


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> Russians are getting their watches mostly from Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar according to a journalist who posted on the Bart and Jack FB page last month....


 That figures. Probably cheaper to get a return business class ticket and go to Dubai or Doha and buy there than in Russia.



WickerBill said:


> Doesn't surprise me, same happened during covid when the airports and China shut down.
> 
> In other news I've now had 4 phone calls from my local AD asking if I wanted that explorer….despite telling them no.
> 
> strikes me as though their 'waiting list' is somewhat diminishing


 Reassuring to know that they have you on speed dial :laughing2dw:


----------



## BondandBigM (Apr 4, 2007)

WickerBill said:


> Doesn't surprise me, same happened during covid when the airports and China shut down.
> 
> In other news I've now had 4 phone calls from my local AD asking if I wanted that explorer….despite telling them no.
> 
> strikes me as though their 'waiting list' is somewhat diminishing


 Post the AD details, you never know someone that actually wants one might by chance read it.


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

BondandBigM said:


> Post the AD details, you never know someone that actually wants one might by chance read it.


 John Pass, Newcastle under lyme. With any luck one of you guys might catch a nice piece. They're a really nice family owned AD to work with so hope someone deserving gets it


----------



## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

I was browsing the preowned watch stock on various grey dealers sites today and I amazed at the advertised prices.

Eg 2016 Omega deville prestige coaxial 39.5mm in excellent condition on a leather strap - asking price £2200.

I paid £2450 for mine new in 2018 on a strap and subsequently foolishly paid £600ish for a stainless bracelet. So 2 years newer, +bracelet/strap and barely worn.

My opinion is that there are a lot of preowned watches of aĺl makes out there that will be worth about half of the current asking price or what their owners think they can get for them now when the already reported shift in the house market and recession bites.

I shall be "keeping my hand on my ha'penny" until then. Certainly not a time to buy.


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

chas g said:


> View attachment 51617
> I was browsing the preowned watch stock on various grey dealers sites today and I amazed at the advertised prices.
> 
> Eg 2016 Omega deville prestige coaxial 39.5mm in excellent condition on a leather strap - asking price £2200.
> ...


 That Omega could be for sale for a very long time. Or it'll sell far lower than headline asking price. We'll never know, unfortunately.

I absolutely agree now is a bad time to buy any posh stuff. I am buying but not yet. I reckon February 2023 might be a good time to go shopping.


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> That Omega could be for sale for a very long time. Or it'll sell far lower than headline asking price. We'll never know, unfortunately.
> 
> I absolutely agree now is a bad time to buy any posh stuff. I am buying but not yet. I reckon February 2023 might be a good time to go shopping.


 Agreed, I see proper January sales coming back


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> Agreed, I see proper January sales coming back


 The way the economy is headed I might be too optimistic. If people are really short of cash to buy petrol, gas, electric etc.... The last thing that'll be flying off the shelves is posh watches for Christmas. If the worst comes to the worst and there's still significant 2022 inventory to shift before 2023 stock, then the sales could be early. We shall see. I am watching with interest.


----------



## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> The way the economy is headed I might be too optimistic. If people are really short of cash to buy petrol, gas, electric etc.... The last thing that'll be flying off the shelves is posh watches for Christmas. If the worst comes to the worst and there's still significant 2022 inventory to shift before 2023 stock, then the sales could be early. We shall see. I am watching with interest.


 Yeh I mean most of me hopes there isn't an economic crash….let be honest, to get a watch at discount it just isn't worth it, the other side of me wants this madness of the last few years to disappear for ever so we can get back to the hobby without investors and flippers.

tbh tho I'm not looking at the main brands…I REALLY want a GO…..BUT cant justify the RRP so hoping for some sales


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> Yeh I mean most of me hopes there isn't an economic crash….let be honest, to get a watch at discount it just isn't worth it, the other side of me wants this madness of the last few years to disappear for ever so we can get back to the hobby without investors and flippers.
> 
> tbh tho I'm not looking at the main brands…I REALLY want a GO…..BUT cant justify the RRP so hoping for some sales


 Funnily enough, the main contender for my money is likely to be a GO Seaq 39 so we're thinking along the same lines. Failing that a Blancpain Air Command would do nicely if one popped up at an irresistible price. Not especially interested in brands than turn out millions of watches a year.


----------



## hawazop (5 mo ago)

I got into watches again after many years of absence. Mostly because I wanted to buy a couple of down to earth watches as presents and I wanted to check what is going on. I've been watching all the videos on youtube/models etc for a month now. "watch market"? "watches as an asset class"? this is just absolutely ridiculous. Whoever did this, i.e. buy a watch as an investment, deserves what is coming to them. Rolex above retail when 1mil Rolexes hit the market every year? What do they think a Daytona is? A Van Gogh ?


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

hawazop said:


> I got into watches again after many years of absence. Mostly because I wanted to buy a couple of down to earth watches as presents and I wanted to check what is going on. I've been watching all the videos on youtube/models etc for a month now. "watch market"? "watches as an asset class"? this is just absolutely ridiculous. Whoever did this, i.e. buy a watch as an investment, deserves what is coming to them. Rolex above retail when 1mil Rolexes hit the market every year? What do they think a Daytona is? A Van Gogh ?


 Quite agree. It's absolutely insane. One day it will pass and you'll be able to wander into a shop and choose which one you want. Like Mrs WS did and walked out with her Rolex watch and a 10% discount.


----------



## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

WOS Brent Cross had a full range of Rolex watches today in the window and inside. Last time I looked a few months ago there were hardly any. Still display only thought


----------



## Bricey (Apr 7, 2021)

chas g said:


> WOS Brent Cross had a full range of Rolex watches today in the window and inside. Last time I looked a few months ago there were hardly any. *Still display only thought*


 I find it hilarious to walk in and with a straight face slide them a scrap of paper (ideally torn out of something they'd be offended by, like the big issue) with a phone number scrawled on it, lean in with a wink and say "those display watches in the window," nod over my shoulder before lowering my voice as if we're sharing a secret, "once you swith the display, give me a bell and let me know how much you'll knock off the ex-display stuff!"

Step back and deliver "I'll see you right for a pint if you look after me" with a flourish and then leave (before being escorted).


----------



## AP3 (7 mo ago)

I think it all depends upon the model. I've been waiting to get a good deal on a Skydweller and/or a Daytona but not having any luck. I do see the ever available datejust come down just after I got the wifey one for Christmas.


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## neil wickham (Oct 16, 2021)

chas g said:


> WOS Brent Cross had a full range of Rolex watches today in the window and inside. Last time I looked a few months ago there were hardly any. Still display only thought


 Wonder how much resources is going into making display only watches for every store and more? why not just switch that production to the real thing.

I know it wouldn't be enough to fill demand, but just to have saleable stock on display and only do walk ins, no lists, no multiples, no phone orders just good old fashioned passing trade


----------



## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

neil wickham said:


> Wonder how much resources is going into making display only watches for every store and more? why not just switch that production to the real thing.
> 
> I know it wouldn't be enough to fill demand, but just to have saleable stock on display and only do walk ins, no lists, no multiples, no phone orders just good old fashioned passing trade


 Just like how it was when we bought Mrs WS hers? 10% discount for cash and choose which one you want. Walk out with it.


----------



## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-prices-rise-by-up-to-7/?amp=1

Be interesting to see what the price has on demand.


----------



## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

chas g said:


> https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-prices-rise-by-up-to-7/?amp=1
> 
> Be interesting to see what the price has on demand.


 It's just hilarious ... £7.5K for a watch you can not walk in and buy ,,, or ,,, walk into an Omega AD and buy a superior watch for £4.5K and walk out wearing it. The best part of ten grand for a mass market dive watch is absolutely ridiculous. Omega Reps must already be pi55ed as farts and toasting to their new commission bonuses. SO funny.


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> It's just hilarious ... £7.5K for a watch you can not walk in and buy ,,, or ,,, walk into an Omega AD and buy a superior watch for £4.5K and walk out wearing it. The best part of ten grand for a mass market dive watch is absolutely ridiculous. Omega Reps must already be pi55ed as farts and toasting to their new commission bonuses. SO funny.


 Zero impact on demand. What's the point of an SRP when you can't buy one?


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Watch Seeker said:


> Zero impact on demand. What's the point of an SRP when you can't buy one?


 The fact remains that they are the most desired not-so-good-watch compared to other competitors. The caveat is the no-date Sub is still the mutts nuts but the date ones with the grandpa magnifier is just not as good a watch as the Omega SeaMaster.... I have said it many times, if Omega crusties had the nouse to produce a no-date Aqua-Terra then their sales figures would take off exponentially.... I still can not believe they have not jumped at that ...


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

It might be helpful to the preowned market..


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

chas g said:


> It might be helpful to the preowned market..


 Another article from yesterday linked from the above article, discussing that. Their opinion is that the silly prices for many models are softening and for the less hyped models, the premium is disappearing.

https://www.watchpro.com/corders-column-is-the-rolex-market-is-rebalancing/?amp=1


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

Watch Seeker said:


> Zero impact on demand. What's the point of an SRP when you can't buy one?


 I had better tell my friend who got a new Submariner from Mappin and Webb recently that he had better take it back and also to forget the rhodium dial 41mm datejust they have promised him.


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> The fact remains that they are the most desired not-so-good-watch compared to other competitors. The caveat is the no-date Sub is still the mutts nuts but the date ones with the grandpa magnifier is just not as good a watch as the Omega SeaMaster.


 Given the choice between my Sea Dweller and Seamaster I think for daily wear the Omega would win but for beauty and presence the sea dweller would triumph. I like them both for different reasons.

The Chopard 44mm gt xl would knock them both into a cocked hat.


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## Ugg10 (Nov 26, 2020)

If the ramping up of advertising is a symptom of watch brands starting to show a bit of staring then …….. just watching Eurosport and have had adverts for Rolex and Longines and also Omega are advertising on Candy Crush !!!!


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

chas g said:


> Given the choice between my Sea Dweller and Seamaster I think for daily wear the Omega would win but for beauty and presence the sea dweller would triumph. I like them both for different reasons.
> 
> The Chopard 44mm gt xl would knock them both into a cocked hat.
> 
> ...


 Indeed , for the Sea Dweller , the cyclops "works". I agree. Although not a watch for me I appreciate its sum-of-its-parts. But with the SubMariner , the no date option is a no brainer ... :thumbsup:


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

This is interesting ... A Dutch Rolex buyer bought a Sub last year new from an AD and flipped it the next day to a grey. The same buyer bought another Sub last week from the same AD [ not really cricket that is it ? ] identical watch but he just said that NO grey dealer was interested in it. He said he had about two dozen contacts in his little black book and was expecting to sell the highest bidder as it were, but was astonished to find ZERO interest. These were Benelux Grey dealers and a few over here.


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## chas g (Nov 20, 2016)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> This is interesting ... A Dutch Rolex buyer bought a Sub last year new from an AD and flipped it the next day to a grey. The same buyer bought another Sub last week from the same AD [ not really cricket that is it ? ] identical watch but he just said that NO grey dealer was interested in it. He said he had about two dozen contacts in his little black book and was expecting to sell the highest bidder as it were, but was astonished to find ZERO interest. These were Benelux Grey dealers and a few over here.


 A friend recently put a 2018 Breitling Colt with leather strap on ebay for what I thought was a very low price. Knowing him it will have been in excellent condition and did have box/papers and after a week I was amazed that he didn't get a single offer.

I went into WoS Brent Cross on Saturday afternoon and apart from staff there wasnt a single customer not even a prospective B*l*x ambassador trying to register.

Pretty sure the gravy train has hit the buffers just in time for the November budget and Christmas.

Ps i normally have a look in the Watchfinder shop but it was shut.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> This is interesting ... A Dutch Rolex buyer bought a Sub last year new from an AD and flipped it the next day to a grey. The same buyer bought another Sub last week from the same AD [ not really cricket that is it ? ] identical watch but he just said that NO grey dealer was interested in it. He said he had about two dozen contacts in his little black book and was expecting to sell the highest bidder as it were, but was astonished to find ZERO interest. These were Benelux Grey dealers and a few over here.


 Not surprising. When i sold my BB58 a few months back i tried 7 dealers including watchfinder, noone was interested because they were flooded. even my local jeweller who usually buys allsorts has stopped buying any brand of watch....they are trying to clear stock before buying anything else so obviously cash flow is an issue.

If you keep a close eye on watchfinder, their stock levels arent really decreasing,....theyre just taking the same watches off the site and readvertising them as a new arrival at a slightly lower price.

As Chas has said, the gravy train is ending. I still think demand outstrips supply for Rolex at the moment, but the longer this goes on the shorter the lists are getting. Ive been getting calls of late from 3 different ADs, no purchase history with them, trying to sell me Rolex

Usually this is a good time for watch sales, but if it doesnt pick up in December and January sales then i can see some big problems for grey dealers that are over leveraged or people who have bought watches on cheap loans that will have to sell at knocked down prices.

Not that im in the market to buy at the moment, but its interesting to watch it all fall apart as fast as it grew, hopefully it will get back to pre covid levels of interest.


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

Yes, I'm sticking to my prediction of February being a good time to buy a posh watch. Just as the post Christmas credit card bills and January energy bill arrives.

I can agree with the market being quite soft on eBay too. Quite recently I advertised my really great condition old style Chronomat GT at below typical prices and didn't get a single bid for it. Considering I spent almost £800 on a service August 2021, I couldn't justify lowering the price. I now just wear it when I feel like it.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

WickerBill said:


> its interesting to watch it all fall apart as fast as it grew,


 The "gravy train" halted for many in 2007/8. I saw a lot of what were "must haves" at the time being handed back, because the wearer's had everything on credit, most in the construction/building industry. The same happened with luxury cars/watches when the big money jobs slumped offshore as well. What doesn't surprise me is that associates I know within the construction industry, some who have been "broke" thrice, are just about to experience it a fourth time, and they don't care.


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WRENCH said:


> The "gravy train" halted for many in 2007/8. I saw a lot of what were "must haves" at the time being handed back, because the wearer's had everything on credit, most in the construction/building industry. The same happened with luxury cars/watches when the big money jobs slumped offshore as well. What doesn't surprise me is that associates I know within the construction industry, some who have been "broke" thrice, are just about to experience it a fourth time, and they don't care.


 Never ceased to amaze me how quite modestly skilled guys were driving E class Mercedes, wearing a Rolex watch, had winter skiing holidays, villa in Spain etc......

I was saving as much as I could into my SIPP. I suppose they're still working.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

WRENCH said:


> The "gravy train" halted for many in 2007/8. I saw a lot of what were "must haves" at the time being handed back, because the wearer's had everything on credit, most in the construction/building industry. The same happened with luxury cars/watches when the big money jobs slumped offshore as well. What doesn't surprise me is that associates I know within the construction industry, some who have been "broke" thrice, are just about to experience it a fourth time, and they don't care.


 I would certainly say you correct in 2007/2008….

i remember in our street there was a family that had a Lambo, Porsche 4x4 and an Audi….all disappeared within a couple of weeks, house was up for sale a few weeks after that.I still don't think we're back to pre crash levels, however when I talk gravy train I'm thinking out low interest loans, covid loans etc. etc. that has certainly overinflated prices….not just in watches. I see the same traits in people now as back then….just now it's low and interest free loans that's sucked people into buying things they don't need…and lots of them. I have a friend that wasn't around for the 2008 crash that literally finances his entire life….he's going to have a shock soon enough…

as interest rates rise I suspect people will think twice about making large unnecessary purchases on finance/ loans


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## Watch Seeker (8 mo ago)

WickerBill said:


> I would certainly say you correct in 2007/2008….
> 
> i remember in our street there was a family that had a Lambo, Porsche 4x4 and an Audi….all disappeared within a couple of weeks, house was up for sale a few weeks after that.I still don't think we're back to pre crash levels, however when I talk gravy train I'm thinking out low interest loans, covid loans etc. etc. that has certainly overinflated prices….not just in watches. I see the same traits in people now as back then….just now it's low and interest free loans that's sucked people into buying things they don't need…and lots of them. I have a friend that wasn't around for the 2008 crash that literally finances his entire life….he's going to have a shock soon enough…
> 
> as interest rates rise I suspect people will think twice about making large unnecessary purchases on finance/ loans


 There's going to be a lot of people who simply won't have the spare cash every month once the fixed rate mortgage expires and they go on to the variable rate of remortgage in 2023.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

Watch Seeker said:


> There's going to be a lot of people who simply won't have the spare cash every month once the fixed rate mortgage expires and they go on to the variable rate of remortgage in 2023.


 It's already happening. Those who went silly with property during lockdown are already suffering, as are those with buy to let/ Airbnb mortgaged houses. The knock on effect will be quite wide and also affect families who rent. So watch purchase, for any sensible person, will not be on any list of priorities.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Watch Seeker said:


> There's going to be a lot of people who simply won't have the spare cash every month once the fixed rate mortgage expires and they go on to the variable rate of remortgage in 2023.


 Indeed….hell, I'm even seeing food being offered in 3 monthly instalments at the moment….you know the system is broken when you have to finance food



WRENCH said:


> It's already happening. Those who went silly with property during lockdown are already suffering, as are those with buy to let/ Airbnb mortgaged houses. The knock on effect will be quite wide and also affect families who rent. So watch purchase, for any sensible person, will not be on any list of priorities.


 Tbh I think there's a whole generation that doesn't know what an interest rate is. It's extreme to compare to the early 90s when interest rates were 14%….because housing was much cheaper, but pre 2008 crash rates were around 6%….a sensible level for borrowers and savers. With low interest rates for so long it's pushed up prices and given people a false sense of security…..country is in a right old pickle


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WickerBill said:


> Tbh I think there's a whole generation that doesn't know what an interest rate is. It's extreme to compare to the early 90s when interest rates were 14%….because housing was much cheaper, but pre 2008 crash rates were around 6%….a sensible level for borrowers and savers. With low interest rates for so long it's pushed up prices and given people a false sense of security…..country is in a right old pickle


 The main difference now with interest rates its that many people never factored in any sort of scenario whereby they could go up. Back in the late 1980s when there was a financial crisis and a spike , it did hurt but most people back then had a different spread of their disposable income and spent a lot less on consumer electronics, vacations and property speculation. That last bit is interesting. Many people in today's market have upscaled their own properties by way of mortgage extension because it seemed like a no brainer , borrow £100K to add £175K to the house worth , but now that assumption is in tatters for many who are over leveraged with house prices stable or dropping. Another nuanced difference is that we have become a nation of Zombie purchasers.. in that many people "just buy stuff" without thought. This is why food inflation will last longer than it otherwise should. Back in the late 1970s, food inflation was very short lived because consumers just stopped buying stuff.


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

WickerBill said:


> Indeed….hell, I'm even seeing food being offered in 3 monthly instalments at the moment….you know the system is broken when you have to finance food
> 
> Tbh I think there's a whole generation that doesn't know what an interest rate is. It's extreme to compare to the early 90s when interest rates were 14%….because housing was much cheaper, but pre 2008 crash rates were around 6%….a sensible level for borrowers and savers. With low interest rates for so long it's pushed up prices and given people a false sense of security…..country is in a right old pickle


 Going back to the 1970's/80's, the way that debt risk was calculated was somewhat different, and the consequences of default much more severe.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> The main difference now with interest rates its that many people never factored in any sort of scenario whereby they could go up. Back in the late 1980s when there was a financial crisis and a spike , it did hurt but most people back then had a different spread of their disposable income and spent a lot less on consumer electronics, vacations and property speculation. That last bit is interesting. Many people in today's market have upscaled their own properties by way of mortgage extension because it seemed like a no brainer , borrow £100K to add £175K to the house worth , but now that assumption is in tatters for many who are over leveraged with house prices stable or dropping. Another nuanced difference is that we have become a nation of Zombie purchasers.. in that many people "just buy stuff" without thought. This is why food inflation will last longer than it otherwise should. Back in the late 1970s, food inflation was very short lived because consumers just stopped buying stuff.


 There was a fascinating piece done by Sky News finance. If you factor in wage growth, the increase in house prices, 4% interest is equivalent to 14% interest back in the early 90s. It shows how much wages have stagnated and house prices have increased over that period.

I do agree about the zombie nation, and the fact people have become very materialistic. Stretching yourself with a mortgage isn't a bad thing, In theory it's the best way to accumulate wealth…..but that only works if you can afford it if prices increase….a lot of people can't.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

WRENCH said:


> Going back to the 1970's/80's, the way that debt risk was calculated was somewhat different, and the consequences of default much more severe.


 Quite.

what's going to be interesting going forward is how the banks/ companies/ government balance that risk with increased interest rates. Since 2008 we've got too used to low interest rates meaning cheaper prices and lower risk.

all of a sudden, people That could comfortably afford a 200k mortgage now can't….but what do mortgage companies do? …can't make everyone default, it means lots of homeless, lots of rental properties being removed from circulation and a higher burden on the state…..keep interest rates low though and inflation won't come down.

it's a right old mess….bringing it back on topic, this will impact luxury goods more than people realise I think. It's all well n good people saying that only the wealthy buy Rolex so will be unaffected but over the last several years your average Joe has been buying them too…..no more


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## WRENCH (Jun 20, 2016)

WickerBill said:


> lots of rental properties being removed from circulation and a higher burden on the state….


 This is already happening, along with (I hate this word) "rent gazumping".

And of course it will, to a certain extent, affect watch sales. For what little I see in shop windows, the choice is at best, lacklustre.


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

WickerBill said:


> There was a fascinating piece done by Sky News finance. If you factor in wage growth, the increase in house prices, 4% interest is equivalent to 14% interest back in the early 90s. It shows how much wages have stagnated and house prices have increased over that period.
> 
> I do agree about the zombie nation, and the fact people have become very materialistic. Stretching yourself with a mortgage isn't a bad thing, In theory it's the best way to accumulate wealth…..but that only works if you can afford it if prices increase….a lot of people can't.


 When my wife and I bought our second house , we had a period of high earning and two small additions to the family. All our friends were buying flash cars, having mega holidays and moving every 4 years to a bigger house for no decent reason other than to upscale their "status". We hammered the mortgage to extinction in 6 years and the kids had 7 years in a row every summer in the Vendee camping in a modest tent. We have made up for it since but having done the retrospective maths, we made some intentionally great decisions but also some accidentally great decisions. Hindsight is great but instinct was always to not stretch beyond our means. I think todays "consumers" are less cautious ...


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> When my wife and I bought our second house , we had a period of high earning and two small additions to the family. All our friends were buying flash cars, having mega holidays and moving every 4 years to a bigger house for no decent reason other than to upscale their "status". We hammered the mortgage to extinction in 6 years and the kids had 7 years in a row every summer in the Vendee camping in a modest tent. We have made up for it since but having done the retrospective maths, we made some intentionally great decisions but also some accidentally great decisions. Hindsight is great but instinct was always to not stretch beyond our means. I think todays "consumers" are less cautious ...


 tbh sounds like you had your priorities in the right place.

after the breakup with my Ex it's exactly where my priorities are too. Got a new fixed rate in May before the interest rate rises….I've now got 5 years to hammer the mortgage. I'm pretty frugal, don't have any finance, loans other than the mortgage and watches can wait….well maybe just one more ;-p

live never been one to keep up with the joneses though, I hate the drip drip of finance, would far rather have the knowledge that I actually own stuff

Oh and give me a camping holiday in the Lake District with the 2 dogs over a foreign holiday any day of the week!



WRENCH said:


> This is already happening, along with (I hate this word) "rent gazumping".
> 
> And of course it will, to a certain extent, affect watch sales. For what little I see in shop windows, the choice is at best, lacklustre.


 Yeh horrible term….and it's only going to get worse as less rental properties become available….just a spiral of doom


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## Ugg10 (Nov 26, 2020)

JonnyOldBoy said:


> When my wife and I bought our second house , we had a period of high earning and two small additions to the family. All our friends were buying flash cars, having mega holidays and moving every 4 years to a bigger house for no decent reason other than to upscale their "status". We hammered the mortgage to extinction in 6 years and the kids had 7 years in a row every summer in the Vendee camping in a modest tent. We have made up for it since but having done the retrospective maths, we made some intentionally great decisions but also some accidentally great decisions. Hindsight is great but instinct was always to not stretch beyond our means. I think todays "consumers" are less cautious ...


 I'm with you on this, first mortgage was 6.1%, we stretched ourselves (but had the good fortune to buy in a house price slump) but knew our salaries would rise over the next five years, paid off the mortgage in 11 years, moved and paid that off in four. Now been free of the bank shackles for a while which means we can now enjoy a bit of financial freedom and be comfortable when the time comes to retire plus look after the offspring if needed. Never bought anything I could not afford, if I could not afford it I went without or saved for it, never had HP on any goods and credit cards paid off each month. Sounds boring and probably a bit alien to most people these days but has done us well.


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## Bricey (Apr 7, 2021)

My house goes through 40 pints of milk in a week. About 12 rolls of loo paper in a the same time.

If I knock up Sandwiches for everyone on a Saturday lunchtime, I need a full loaf, three packs of ham and a full block of cheese.

If we all go out and stop for a cheeky McDonalds on the way home I'm lucky to get change out of 60 quid.

On the one hand the cost of living I fear you're all about to see is my norm.

On the other hand I realise it's going to hit me by a multiple of about 8.


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## WickerBill (Apr 14, 2020)

Bricey said:


> My house goes through 40 pints of milk in a week. About 12 rolls of loo paper in a the same time.
> 
> If I knock up Sandwiches for everyone on a Saturday lunchtime, I need a full loaf, three packs of ham and a full block of cheese.
> 
> ...


 Meanwhile at Briceys House….

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/cp7_u0kcQRo?feature=oembed


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## JonnyOldBoy (Mar 28, 2017)

Bricey said:


> I fear you're all about to see is my norm.


What !? Having enough fresh new shiny watches to open your own branch of Ernest Jones !?


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