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Vintage Rolex, is the bubble about to burst?

6K views 87 replies 25 participants last post by  Karrusel 
#1 ·
#2 ·
#6 · (Edited by Moderator)
In the end anything, be it a house, a car, a gold ingot, or a watch, is only worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it. :yes:

There are antiques that thirty years ago were worth £ thousands, but today are work only a few £ hundred. These have become "yesterday's antiques". Today there's little demand where once there was alot. Collectables have tended to go the other way in the last three decades and for alot of people a Rolex has become simply a tradeable commodity.

It's down to sentiment, changing tastes, styles and priorities, the way we live, and increasingly socially acceptable purchasing behaviour (consider the plastic bag...or plastic anything come to think of it.). But nothing ever stays the same for long. It's nigh on impossible to forecast the future other than vaguely, whether you're an 'expert' or not. Who forecast the 2008 financial crash? Almost no-one, anywhere.

You have to decide for yourself what the right price is, don't believe the hype and don't get carried away. :thumbsup:

After all, one day you might find yourself in a Philadelphian pawn shop :biggrin: ;

 
#8 ·
Makes me wonder if I really like some of these old watches with "great patina" or if I've just been drawn into the whole vintage thing, similarly Sierra Cosworths have always been pretty cool but at £50,000 - £100,000 they look even more ugly next to other cars for the same money!
 
#16 ·
Out and about I was looking at Air Kings, all too modern, but stupid (in my opinion) prices. All upwards of £3.6K. Did uncover a very fresh vintage oyster perpetual for around £2k with history box and papers. Swatch shop had some decent stuff too starting at £69.
 
#18 ·
well the bubble was supposed to burst in 1989 on all things classic and desirable and everything has still gone up in price, old cars old watches etc...thought it depends what the next generation want...like mgb's and mk2 jags have stagnated of fallen so will some watches and so will some rolex, i expect along with the jags and mgbs the manual wind bubble backs will drop and like the pug gti the daytona and sub wont.
 
#26 ·
Rolex days of investment are coming to ( or have come to ) an end for the sub £50K watches because SS models are not available to buy at RRP readily and secondary market prices for SS are as close to precious metal versions as they can reasonably get.

Someone who buys a watch these days because its an "investment" is perhaps short of other ideas as to where to look for investments ... perhaps.
 
#27 ·
Rolex days of investment are coming to ( or have come to ) an end for the sub £50K watches because SS models are not available to buy at RRP readily and secondary market prices for SS are as close to precious metal versions as they can reasonably get.

Someone who buys a watch these days because its an "investment" is perhaps short of other ideas as to where to look for investments ... perhaps.
50K Rolex?

An Oysterdate is about 2K a vintage DateJust is about 2 - 4K depending on what you are after.

SS models are available you just have to have the patience to wait. The fact some dont seem to grasp that concept and want to pay silly money because they demand them now hardly means that SS Rolex are going to suddenly drop in price.
 
#34 · (Edited by Moderator)
funny thing is I never once mentioned the R word :tongue:

I suppose my comment was quite limited any didnt really express any really in depth though on the matter , but the reaction has been interesting :thumbsup:

I wonder what the reaction would have been had I said "blah blah 10 grand etc etc"

anyway, no more from me in this thread , wouldn't want this forum heading to far to the dark side

:rltrlt:
 
#35 ·
funny thing is I never once mentioned the R word :tongue:

I suppose my comment was quite limited any didnt really express any really in depth though on the matter , but the reaction has been interesting :thumbsup:

I wonder what the reaction would have been had I said "blah blah 10 grand etc etc"

anyway, no more from me in this thread , wouldn't want this forum heading to far to the dark side

:rltrlt:
You know you were commenting on a thread about Rolex right? :laugh:
 
#43 ·
It's not only Rolex prices that have escalated recently. As the watch collecting hobby has become increasingly popular there are many more people seeking vintage watches that are inevitably becoming increasingly scarce. More demand plus less supply equals higher prices.

A few examples:

Simple Vostoks and Raketas that were widely available for less than £20 a decade or so ago are now fetching £60-£150. Issued CWC G10's were easily obtainable for around £50 but now are £200+. The very common WWW's were £250 or less but now even these are over £1000.
 
#50 ·
From what I hear the market is undergoing an "adjustment" not just on Rolex but on all the over hype models from all lines.

There are a number of watches like the Batman, or some Nautilus models that were commanding silly prices. For that reasons dealers were overpaying so as to have these high demand and low supply watches and subsequently putting them in the window with speculative prices... hoping some mug would over pay just because he wants it. In the end you had a lot of these watches being traded among the trade at inflated prices but with no customers willing to buy them at that. It has led to a drop of 10-20% on selected models and an unwillingness in the trade to buy those models because of a loss of confidence and fear they may drop further.

Basically greedy people have tried to wring too much out of some watches and paralyzed those watches.

I do believe many of the Rolex are crap watches for the money, maybe more so with the older models, but if the market puts a value on them and they can be sold for such prices that's what they are worth...
 
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#52 ·
18 watches and two Rolex and one Omega didn't sell, not a bad result for the auctioneer and partner. The pre-auction hype that the Bond was going to sell for $180,000 t0 $280,000 probably put a lot of people off! Not sure it signals a bubble bursting just that the hype surrounding this particular watch was overplayed. Besides which it's August what a dumb time to hold an auction!
 
#74 ·
I would love to see how it bursts. But what else to expect from a brand founded by a businessman, not a watchmaker?

Cheers
These "Tropical" dials came about out of a production flaw during the 1950/60s . During this period companies like Rolex used a chemical on the dials to stop the dials from fading :laugh: little did they know at the time , down the years while these watches were worn a lot and exposed to sunshine that the chemical reacted and turned the dials "tropical" . I believe the term "tropical" comes from the watches that was issued to military serviceman who was stationed abroad and wore the watches in very sunny conditions . So not only do these people with more money than sense pay thousands for a degraded / discoloured dial , they are also paying for a watch that has been well and truly used over the years . :laugh:
 
#75 · (Edited by Moderator)
Getting back to the original subject matter..the Vintage Rolex market even in times of recession like 2008 and onwards remains relatively stable.. the prices of almost all vintage watches from all brands from the top to the bottom has seen a steady increase all being dragged along with peoples awareness due to various social media outlets which has changed our hobby/ illness forever..There are people that are willing to pay huge amounts for that must have piece with great provenance... but this submariner was just a early submariner and probably the one all serious collectors would prefer..but the estimate was just a fantasy figure with ridiculous expectations...Vintage is cool and remains a great hunting ground for those who choose to stay away from the herd..
 
#76 ·
Vintage is cool and remains a great hunting ground for those who choose to stay away from the herd..
I couldn't agree more . I personally just wouldn't pay that amount of money on a vintage Rolex , even if I had the money , which I don't :laugh:

I have a particular interest in the history of watchmaking and the various innovations / inventions , and the individuals who are important in the history of horology .

I could just imagine the collection of vintage watches I could own for a lot less than the money wanted for that particular Rolex . But watch collecting is of course highly subjective .
 
#83 ·
Many Collectors of old items would much prefer the faded Well Worn Rusted Abused look now lovingly called "Patina" as they like to think the piece has lived a life.and are happy to pay a healthy premium for that distressed look rather than the highly polished restored item..think very carefully about having that old collectable restored back to as new as it can seriously damage its value.
 
#84 ·
I do care about investment values, though I collect because I love watches and not for that reason. I am planning to sell my watches in 20 years and live it up somewhere abroad so naturally I don't want to lose my shirt, nor am I willing to have a box of Rolex watches just for investment.

It should be painfully obvious why spending £1500 on a watch and making it non standard will lose £5000. It is all about perception and supply vs demand. People want it original... Simples.

We all have our own personal opinions on value and they may be driven by different criteria than the market. Often my sense is at odds. Ultimately we can only control our behaviour though, we can't tell everyone else they are wrong to favour one thing over another but simply to understand what the market likes and dislikes.
 
#85 ·
I do care about investment values
Also for me, particularly in property, land, & business investments.

But, for hobbies (horology), pastimes, recreational, charitable activities, sensible, prudent rules do not apply for me. Participating & enjoying these come at an obvious cost (none recoverable in most part)...so just enjoy it! The scenario of investing 'everything sensibly' into a box of trinkets, quite frankly, would mortify me. :(

When you have spent a working lifetime (acting responsibly) raising a family, providing & maintaining lifestyles for others, we/I can now (fortunately) do as we please.

we can't tell everyone else they are wrong to favour one thing over another
Correct!

:thumbsup:
 
#87 ·
I must admit I had to consider re-sale and value in the last two years mainly because I bought and sold about a dozen expensive watches... now I am settled with my lot and the dust has settled , I can genuinely see you both @Karrusel and @Daveyboyz have valid approaches for you particular version of this wonderful hobby.

My last sell-to-buy [ SuperOcean to Colt 44 ] was a zero pounds swap but could so easily have been a £1200 loss had I not navigated the market place carefully. With two kids now at Uni , I can barely afford clothes let alone to blow £1200 ... :laugh:
 
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