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Vintage Rolex, is the bubble about to burst?

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Rolex days of investment are coming to ( or have come to ) an end for the sub £50K watches because SS models are not available to buy at RRP readily and secondary market prices for SS are as close to precious metal versions as they can reasonably get.

Someone who buys a watch these days because its an "investment" is perhaps short of other ideas as to where to look for investments ... perhaps.

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1 hour ago, JonnyOldBoy said:

Rolex days of investment are coming to ( or have come to ) an end for the sub £50K watches because SS models are not available to buy at RRP readily and secondary market prices for SS are as close to precious metal versions as they can reasonably get.

Someone who buys a watch these days because its an "investment" is perhaps short of other ideas as to where to look for investments ... perhaps.

50K Rolex?

An Oysterdate is about 2K a vintage DateJust is about 2 - 4K depending on what you are after.

SS models are available you just have to have the patience to wait.  The fact some dont seem to grasp that concept and want to pay silly money because they demand them now hardly means that SS Rolex are going to suddenly drop in price.

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If Rolex ever up their SS production and god forbid, you could just buy one in a shop the second hand market would pop pretty sharpish. 

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9 hours ago, ZenArcade said:

50K Rolex?

An Oysterdate is about 2K a vintage DateJust is about 2 - 4K depending on what you are after.

SS models are available you just have to have the patience to wait.  The fact some dont seem to grasp that concept and want to pay silly money because they demand them now hardly means that SS Rolex are going to suddenly drop in price.

SS models are available and it appears the majority of those who buy them , keep them and have little interest in resale on a secondary market. The minority ( and from what I have listened to over the last few months, an increasing minority ) are sold on again through the grey dealers and its there where the "investment" mistakes are being made by people who simply don't understand how watch "investments" work.

SS are not going to drop in price. But an "investment" is about an increase in price over and above inflation.

Many non-WIS Rolex buyers also sound surprised if anyone points out that the watch dial won't "last for ever" and degradation over time will mean the person who "inherits" the investment may have to put up with wearing a watch that looks like it had a life whilst their buddies all romp around wearing bling that requires sunglasses to gaze upon. 

Obviously that last bit was tongue-in-cheek but my original point I guess is that many who buy these days thinking they are "investing" are not and many who buy these days not caring either way perhaps sometimes are.

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13 hours ago, Rotundus said:

Still can't see why any watch is worth more than 2 or 3 grand. :boxing:

 

You can pay £300 or less for a watch that has decent accuracy and will last for many years so you could argue that any watch over that price is not worth the money but we all have different ideas about what we are prepared to spend on things. I find it strange that so many people worry about their watches dropping in value whilst happily changing their car every few years and probably losing far more on them than they ever spent on a watch. :thumbs_up:

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You can pay £300 or less for a watch that has decent accuracy and will last for many years so you could argue that any watch over that price is not worth the money but we all have different ideas about what we are prepared to spend on things. I find it strange that so many people worry about their watches dropping in value whilst happily changing their car every few years and probably losing far more on them than they ever spent on a watch. :thumbs_up:


They change their cars every few years as that’s when their finance agreement ends. They either pay the lump sum to keep the car or give it back to the finance company.

Meanwhile their neighbours think they’ve made it in the world as they’re changing their cars so often
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13 hours ago, Rotundus said:

Still can't see why any watch is worth more than 2 or 3 grand. :boxing:

 

Because they are made in a country that is incredibly expensive to make things, going to incredible fuss to make it, with incredibly highly skilled and qualified workers.

Plus very high advertising cost, R+D cost, high tech machinery cost etc.

And you pay for the AD owner to have lavish month long luxury holidays in Disney Land Florida with their spoilt kids...

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50 minutes ago, MSC said:

And you pay for the AD owner to have lavish month long luxury holidays in Disney Land Florida with their spoilt kids...

Jealous? :swoon:

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1 hour ago, JonnyOldBoy said:

SS models are available and it appears the majority of those who buy them , keep them and have little interest in resale on a secondary market. The minority ( and from what I have listened to over the last few months, an increasing minority ) are sold on again through the grey dealers and its there where the "investment" mistakes are being made by people who simply don't understand how watch "investments" work.

SS are not going to drop in price. But an "investment" is about an increase in price over and above inflation.

Many non-WIS Rolex buyers also sound surprised if anyone points out that the watch dial won't "last for ever" and degradation over time will mean the person who "inherits" the investment may have to put up with wearing a watch that looks like it had a life whilst their buddies all romp around wearing bling that requires sunglasses to gaze upon. 

Obviously that last bit was tongue-in-cheek but my original point I guess is that many who buy these days thinking they are "investing" are not and many who buy these days not caring either way perhaps sometimes are.

Of course you can always send it back to Rolex and it will come back like a new watch.

Costs a bit but where can you buy a new Sub with a two year warranty for £600.

People have been talking down Rolex forever and forever they’ve just went up in price.

Even bimetallic and 18k new or second hand are substantially more expensive these days.

Then there are the old ones you just can’t buy new. And despite making millions intentionally or otherwise there have been subtle changes over the years like the original LV, there are seven or eight different “MK’s”over its run so not as many around of each as you might think.

Sure the tight @rses don’t care but to the serious collector it’s another story.

I’ve never lost money on a Rolex. 

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funny thing is I never once mentioned the R word :tongue:

I suppose my comment was quite limited any didnt really express any really in depth though on the matter , but the reaction has been interesting :thumbsup:

 I wonder what the reaction would have been had I said "blah blah 10 grand etc etc"

anyway, no more from me in this thread , wouldn't want this forum heading to far to the dark side 

:rltrlt:

Edited by Rotundus
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19 minutes ago, Rotundus said:

funny thing is I never once mentioned the R word :tongue:

I suppose my comment was quite limited any didnt really express any really in depth though on the matter , but the reaction has been interesting :thumbsup:

 I wonder what the reaction would have been had I said "blah blah 10 grand etc etc"

anyway, no more from me in this thread , wouldn't want this forum heading to far to the dark side 

:rltrlt:

You know you were commenting on a thread about Rolex right?:laugh:

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2 hours ago, richy176 said:

You can pay £300 or less for a watch that has decent accuracy and will last for many years so you could argue that any watch over that price is not worth the money but we all have different ideas about what we are prepared to spend on things. I find it strange that so many people worry about their watches dropping in value whilst happily changing their car every few years and probably losing far more on them than they ever spent on a watch. :thumbs_up:

Excluding those with an interest in horology, perhaps a car is more often seen by most people as a necessity (or a priority for spending your PPI windfall as a deposit), but many more people have trouble justifying spending £5k on a watch, when you can indeed spend £300 on, for example, a Citizen A-T model with perfect accuracy that will last for many, many years. :yes: A car on the driveway if a far more visible signal of status than a watch covered by your shirt sleeve.  We're also told that 'young people' [use your own definition] are far less likely to wear watches because they have the time on all their devices.  Will they be interested in expensive timepieces in future years?

For others still, expensive watches are 'functional jewellery', so it may be more a matter of disposable income and prioritising expenditure.  There's a far more limited market for flipped watches than there is for secondhand cars.

New cars are fast depreciating assets, but if your budget is tight you can also buy a secondhand car for £500 run it for 3 or 4 years and all you can lose (apart from running costs) is £500.  There are also alot of BMWs, Audis and VWs on the roads that are untaxed and uninsured, at least in part because the 'keepers' can't afford the tax and insurance but must have the badge...and a fake or stolen Rolex on their wrists.

 

1 hour ago, MSC said:

Plus very high advertising cost

This is a major component of RRPs.  Above-the-line and below-the-line promotion costs are huge.  And as brands go for more solus boutiques in expensive locations with fixtures and fittings running into £ hundreds of thousands, you pay in the RRP.  To paraphrase the famous line from Fame! "Gin palaces cost, and here's where you start paying!" :laugh:

 

22 minutes ago, BondandBigM said:

I’ve never lost money on a Rolex. 

I'm not going to forecast future values of anything, but that sounds like tempting fate Bond :tongue::laugh:

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50 minutes ago, BondandBigM said:

Of course you can always send it back to Rolex and it will come back like a new watch.

Not always if the dial is vintage and there is no longer NOS parts. 

There are specialist dial restorers but most Vintage Rolex collectors leave them alone.

No joe-public who inherits a 40 year old Roley with dial deterioration is going to spend £1000s on a bespoke renovation. IMO.

6 minutes ago, RTM Boy said:

I'm not going to forecast future values of anything, but that sounds like tempting fate Bond :tongue::laugh:

It would also be doubtful that he has worked through the compound depreciation/appreciation against inflation for all years of ownership. One of my bore buddies was droning on about his watch a few weeks back telling me how he bought it for blah blah and its now worth blah blah more. I had to break the news that relatively speaking, it was worth 10% less than when he bough it.

[ still impressive retention in my books ,,, but he looked like he was about to end it all ]

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1 hour ago, RTM Boy said:

A car on the driveway if a far more visible signal of status than a watch covered by your shirt sleeve. 

Down at the golf club

At the top it's tough,

I've just bought a Merc,

Because Rolex,

Don't make a watch big enough.

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1 hour ago, RTM Boy said:

 

 

I'm not going to forecast future values of anything, but that sounds like tempting fate Bond :tongue::laugh:

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:

No big deal, even if it ended up being worthless today I’ve had 15 years out of it which amounts to pennies hear and there. I’ve spent more this year to date on booze and partying.

That being said I recently had a solid and substantial five figure offer for my LV of course that was by someone who knew what he was looking at and it’s value and not based on some  tinternet rambling from the likes of @JonnyOldBoy 

Edited by BondandBigM
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    when the bubble bursts;   collectors will  realize that saiko is a much better investment than ROLEX.    vin

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1 hour ago, JonnyOldBoy said:

Not always if the dial is vintage and there is no longer NOS parts. 

There are specialist dial restorers but most Vintage Rolex collectors leave them alone.

No joe-public who inherits a 40 year old Roley with dial deterioration is going to spend £1000s on a bespoke renovation. IMO.

It would also be doubtful that he has worked through the compound depreciation/appreciation against inflation for all years of ownership. One of my bore buddies was droning on about his watch a few weeks back telling me how he bought it for blah blah and its now worth blah blah more. I had to break the news that relatively speaking, it was worth 10% less than when he bough it.

[ still impressive retention in my books ,,, but he looked like he was about to end it all ]

I have pocket watches over a century old which dont have deteriorating dials.  I have trench watches from the 20s/30s watches from the 60s and 70s with pristine dials and a vintage Rolex that looks just fine.  I honestly have no idea what you are referring to regarding dial deterioration.  Service on a vintage Rolex runs between 4 - 600 pounds not thousands.

 

4 minutes ago, vinn said:

    when the bubble bursts;   collectors will  realize that saiko is a much better investment than ROLEX.    vin

I am sure that rare Seiko with the Saiko dial will be worth millions in the future:laugh:

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37 minutes ago, BondandBigM said:

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:

No big deal, even if it ended up being worthless today I’ve had 15 years out of it which amounts to pennies hear and there. I’ve spent more this year to date on booze and partying.

That being said I recently had a solid and substantial five figure offer for my LV of course that was by someone who knew what he was looking at and it’s value and not based on some  tinternet rambling from the likes of @JonnyOldBoy 

    " I'm a rambling man"    vin

19 minutes ago, ZenArcade said:

I have pocket watches over a century old which dont have deteriorating dials.  I have trench watches from the 20s/30s watches from the 60s and 70s with pristine dials and a vintage Rolex that looks just fine.  I honestly have no idea what you are referring to regarding dial deterioration.  Service on a vintage Rolex runs between 4 - 600 pounds not thousands.

 

I am sure that rare Seiko with the Saiko dial will be worth millions in the future

    trench watches were made before 1918 :whistle:

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It's not only Rolex prices that have escalated recently.  As the watch collecting hobby has become increasingly popular there are many more people seeking vintage watches that are inevitably becoming increasingly scarce.  More demand plus less supply equals higher prices.

A few examples:

Simple Vostoks and Raketas that were widely available for less than £20 a decade or so ago are now fetching £60-£150.  Issued CWC G10's were easily obtainable for around £50 but now are £200+.  The very common WWW's were £250 or less but now even these are over £1000.

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26 minutes ago, vinn said:

    " I'm a rambling man"    vin

    trench watches were made before 1918 :whistle:

Its probably a Saiko one:laugh:

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1 hour ago, ZenArcade said:

 I honestly have no idea what you are referring to regarding dial deterioration. 

I can see you have no idea.....  Not a lot I can do about that really, other than to suggest you take a look at some of the thousands of vintage Rolex watches available to buy online showing Dial distressing/deterioration/patina/desiccation depending on the life its had and the dial material.

 

1 hour ago, BondandBigM said:

my LV 

You have one of those !? Really !? I would never have known ... :laugh:

34 minutes ago, rhaythorne said:

It's not only Rolex prices that have escalated recently.  As the watch collecting hobby has become increasingly popular there are many more people seeking vintage watches that are inevitably becoming increasingly scarce.  More demand plus less supply equals higher prices.

I had an interesting chat with a collector during the week... He collects all sorts of watches but mentioned something that helps/hampers his hobby... Some watches have been made in huge manufacturing runs in recent decades including many Omegas for example and hence are fairly easy to source. Others are/were made leaning more towards a more of a JIT supply model including many Breitlings. An example of this is the Transocean 38 which was made in small tentative batches and when it was discontinued due to poor sales , there was not a lot of stock in residue hence its scarce.  Its also one of the reasons that Bremont buyers who get a bit of a shock about residuals should maybe think longer term because some of their early models now are attracting some surprisingly high prices.

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10 minutes ago, JonnyOldBoy said:

I can see you have no idea.....  Not a lot I can do about that really, other than to suggest you take a look at some of the thousands of vintage Rolex watches available to buy online showing Dial distressing/deterioration/patina/desiccation depending on the life its had and the dial material.

No your right I dont.

As someone who has owned dozens of vintage watches over the years and still has a number of them including Rolex I havent a clue what you are talking about my Rolex is approximately 40 years old so I can verify you are talking utter nonsense.   Below are your words so what on earth are you talking about?  So what there are thousands of Rolex watches with poor dials do you know their history, damage they have suffered etc?  You stated the below as though its fact which it plainly isnt

And no, there is not a lot I can do if you havent a clue what you are talking about.  

Many non-WIS Rolex buyers also sound surprised if anyone points out that the watch dial won't "last for ever" and degradation over time will mean the person who "inherits" the investment may have to put up with wearing a watch that looks like it had a life whilst their buddies all romp around wearing bling that requires sunglasses to gaze upon. 

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6 minutes ago, ZenArcade said:

No your right I dont.

 

Here is Rolex watch from the 1960s. Recent valuation was £20,000 , estimate for dial restoration was £1500. Advice to purchaser was not to restore as the value would drop to nearer £15,000. The picture here is post Rolex service. This one example picked at random from thousands...... 

rr.jpg

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7 minutes ago, JonnyOldBoy said:

Here is Rolex watch from the 1960s. Recent valuation was £20,000 , estimate for dial restoration was £1500. Advice to purchaser was not to restore as the value would drop to nearer £15,000. The picture here is post Rolex service. This one example picked at random from thousands...... 

rr.jpg

I am seeing a heavily used watch I have no knowledge of the history of that will lose value if is restored, whats your point?

My Oysterdate has never been restored and has a dial nothing like that, about 10 years younger than this sub.  I also have an Omega older than that Sub that has an equally pristine dial.  Your point was any owner should realise their dial wont last forever and deteriorate.  Is this actually based upon your personal experience or internet search?  I mean is this your watch for example?

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3 hours ago, ZenArcade said:

You know you were commenting on a thread about Rolex right?:laugh:

got me bang to rights there ! I was thinking - if at all - much more generally.  

fatboy out !

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