Jump to content
  • Sign Up to reply and join the friendliest Watch Forum on the web. Stick around, get to 50 posts and gain access to your full profile and additional features such as a personal messaging system, chat room and the sales forum PLUS the chance to enter our regular giveaways.

Recommended Posts

Chrono24 had a brief dip but now things are back to above pre-lockdown prices.

I would suggest if you want anything good it isn't really such a buyers market.     SOme people are going to be having cash flow issues but that's as far as it goes.  I think with zero confidence in currency at the moment gold and high end gear is likely to stay solid.

 

Just my two-peneth  

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 57
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Where are my offers then? NOTHING, not a dicky bird...  Surely I should be hearing from Lorus soon. That's about my mark at the moment.

Payment in bitcoin or canned tomatoes preferred one assumes ! 

Could be some on the waiting list are pulling out ?

Posted Images

I have not had an offer for a watch refused for a while now - been caught out twice now putting in a low offer, and expecting a counter offer to give me a bit more thinking time lol

 

All the sensible people appear to be going for liquidity.

 

Still some idiots spending hard earned cash on old watches though.  (oops)

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have sat across a number of watch auctions for the past few weeks. During initial lockdown reserves were high and bid volumes low. The past fortnight bids have often been crazy (volume and level) with people paying close to Chrono24 prices before buyers premium.

i don’t think it’s just watches though, I was looking at a BBQ for sale close to me. Buy it new for £499 at John Lewis, bidding at £600 with 1 day to go!!!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

If you think BBQs are bad, you should see the price of Lay Z Spa hot tubs right now! I got a puncture in mine last year, should have got the replacement liner back then...they were £50...IF you can get one these days it’s about £250 and the full kit is retailing for more than double RRP....

....first world problems eh?! 

 

I think with watch prices/ discounts it very much depends on how long this goes on for. If you’re talking weeks not much will change....if you’re talking 6 months, retailers will be getting desperate. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Jet Jetski said:

Why are you laughing @scottswatches? I was meaning you! :laughing2dw:

When you got the itch you just need one more watch, just to take the edge off.

Other things that are unexpectedly selling well is deep fat fryers.  Those of us missing the chippy and cooking more have snapped them up.  It should arrive on Monday and my daughters want to make donuts.  Ah go on then

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, scottswatches said:

When you got the itch you just need one more watch, just to take the edge off.

Other things that are unexpectedly selling well is deep fat fryers.  Those of us missing the chippy and cooking more have snapped them up.  It should arrive on Monday and my daughters want to make donuts.  Ah go on then

By coinkydink, my mum was 80 on Thursday, and as I drove to the shops I noticed that the chippy door was open, so on the way back I inspected more closely, and they were doing click and collect orders, so I called them (from outside the chippy lol) and they gave me a time-slot in 30 mins time to pick up the grub, and 10 mins after that I was dropping fish and chips off to my mum's porch along with her shopping. 

A small slice of normality creeping back in.

Keep well.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

There seem to me to be a few factors at work:

- Watch manufacturers and ADs (even closed) continue to have outgoings (rent, interest on debt, insurance, taxes (although some may get deferred)). All of these are cash, so they need some cash coming in.

- At the end of this we are all likely to be a lot less well off, and will have to rein in on discretionary expenditure. It probably won't affect the high rollers (i.e. those who buy really expensive watches out of pocket money) too much, but the demand for mid-range watches (£500 to £10k), which are normally bought by ordinary mortals who have to count their pounds, may well be quite "thin" for several years.

- If people want out of cash, they will want a "bolt hole" with a history of moderately sensible trading, like gold or diamonds. I don't personally think the extremely capricious watch market is likely to appeal to many as an investment vehicle.

 

Could be wrong, of course, but the combination of a lot of industry infrastructure with "bricks and mortar" to maintain (at cash expense) and reduced liquidity among the larger customer base seems likely to lead to a year of worthwhile deals being available  --  even from reputable sources.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, yokel said:

- At the end of this we are all likely to be a lot less well off, and will have to rein in on discretionary expenditure. It probably won't affect the high rollers (i.e. those who buy really expensive watches out of pocket money) too much, but the demand for mid-range watches (£500 to £10k), which are normally bought by ordinary mortals who have to count their pounds, may well be quite "thin" for several years.

Agreed, I’m a little more optimistic though, at least this ‘recession/ financial crisis’ or what ever you want to call it is attributed to a specific event, unlike the last financial crash, the UK economy was pretty robust before this event so there wasn’t many underlying issues. I suspect if we can gradually get people back to work over the next few months the shock won’t be as bad as many fear. 

Thats not to say there isn’t/ won’t be a shock...all this money has to come from somewhere so unless governments around the world get together and just decide to wipe off debt in equal measures as not to devalue one currency over another, the only option is tax rises. 

Youre correct though, it’s going to be the £1000-£10000 price range that will be hit hard, I think your tissots, g shocks etc will still sell easily enough because they are ‘affordable’ for the average Guy.....your Breitling/ omegas/ entry level Rolexes might suffer though....which isn’t necessarily a bad thing...let’s be honest, when you take a step back from our little watch bubble, can you REALLY justify spending £4000 on a bit of metal weighing a few ounces when you can get an F91 for £10 that will tell the time more accurately 

Edited by WickerBill
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WickerBill said:

can you REALLY justify spending £4000 on a bit of metal weighing a few ounces when you can get an F91 for £10 that will tell the time more accurately 

just what I was thinking - this second posted on a debate around customising Rolexes - "watches that cost a month’s or a year’s salary. First world problems."

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Jet Jetski said:

just what I was thinking - this second posted on a debate around customising Rolexes - "watches that cost a month’s or a year’s salary. First world problems."

Tbh in some respects it actually makes ‘the hunt’ a bit more fun for me...yeh if I wanted to I could go into an Omega dealer, get a seamaster for 4K on finance for about £60 a month 0%APR or I could hold out get a big discount at the right time or go search for some really obscure brands or models within a particular brand I like....I’ve learnt far more about watches/ brands by doing this than simply walking into an AD and getting their new toys

Case in point....Omega....you can pick up some really good deals on the Seamaster Olympic with the same coax movement as the 300m....I’ve seen them being sold at jewellers brand new for about 2K.....when many ADs are selling them for circa 4K.....

...and I’ve never seen someone wearing one...so they’re a rare beast

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, scottswatches said:

Would you pay £13k for a Rolex Day Date, with no warranty and not even have had the chance to see the watch before the sale?  I wouldn't.

The drug dealers have to launder their money somehow...:whistle::laugh:

 

10 hours ago, dougal74 said:

I have sat across a number of watch auctions for the past few weeks.

Sounds painful.  I'd recommend some ointment, but with the panic buying you just can't get the stuff...:biggrin:

 

13 minutes ago, yokel said:

There seem to me to be a few factors at work:

- Watch manufacturers and ADs (even closed) continue to have outgoings (rent, interest on debt, insurance, taxes (although some may get deferred)). All of these are cash, so they need some cash coming in.

- At the end of this we are all likely to be a lot less well off, and will have to rein in on discretionary expenditure. It probably won't affect the high rollers (i.e. those who buy really expensive watches out of pocket money) too much, but the demand for mid-range watches (£500 to £10k), which are normally bought by ordinary mortals who have to count their pounds, may well be quite "thin" for several years.

- If people want out of cash, they will want a "bolt hole" with a history of moderately sensible trading, like gold or diamonds. I don't personally think the extremely capricious watch market is likely to appeal to many as an investment vehicle.

 

Could be wrong, of course, but the combination of a lot of industry infrastructure with "bricks and mortar" to maintain (at cash expense) and reduced liquidity among the larger customer base seems likely to lead to a year of worthwhile deals being available  --  even from reputable sources.

Beaverbrooks had closed even its on-line sales, but just this week has reopened these.

A rapid rebound post-lockdown (or whatever state is permitted by the state) may be optimistic.  Some will have 'saved' cash by not going on holiday, using less petrol, not going out to eat or to the pub or garden centre, etc., but millions will have been furloughed on 80% of wages and many made redundant when that ends as businesses retrench or go under. Things of intrinsic value like gold and diamonds have a certain security, but a stainless steel watch is just stainless steel. Caution is bound to apply to some extent. Deals are bound to follow.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, WRENCH said:

Even their business is being hit big time.

Yeh....it was interesting seeing the police say it’s easier to catch drug dealers now....they’re usually the only ones loitering in parks or driving when they shouldn’t be....basically they stand out now they aren’t hidden by the masses

It did make me chuckle though at the start of all this, when the world was panic buying bog roll, the Dutch had the best idea, with mile long queues at weed shops!

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WickerBill said:

Yeh....it was interesting seeing the police say it’s easier to catch drug dealers now....they’re usually the only ones loitering in parks or driving when they shouldn’t be....basically they stand out now they aren’t hidden by the masses

The supply is drying up in my area, and the town centre resembles scenes out of a Zombie film. Best news story was an addict stealing a very small child's bicycle out of Halfords and attempting a fast getaway on it.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RTM Boy said:

Things of intrinsic value like gold and diamonds have a certain security, but a stainless steel watch is just stainless steel. Caution is bound to apply to some extent. Deals are bound to follow.

I'd take the stainless steel watch over the diamonds any day.

Gold is a different matter, it is absolutely liquid and has an objective value.   Diamonds are very subjective and much harder to sell than a stainless steel watch assuming that it is one people want.   

I have a diamond ring that I don't wear anymore, and I want trade value for it (one carat of diamonds and an 18ct gold mount, £400 for the stones and £200 for the mount = £600) near impossible to sell unless you have a jewellers shop window and even then it could sit there for a very long time. 

Until we reach the stage where nobody wears watches anymore a stainless steel watch with a decent brand/desirable model will have more demand and less supply than some polished carbon (unless you are talking a certified and high end stone but even then prepare to get shafted when you buy or sell....diamonds are just mulitple layers of mark up) 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WickerBill said:

Agreed, I’m a little more optimistic though, at least this ‘recession/ financial crisis’ or what ever you want to call it is attributed to a specific event, unlike the last financial crash, the UK economy was pretty robust before this event so there wasn’t many underlying issues. I suspect if we can gradually get people back to work over the next few months the shock won’t be as bad as many fear. 

Thats not to say there isn’t/ won’t be a shock...all this money has to come from somewhere so unless governments around the world get together and just decide to wipe off debt in equal measures as not to devalue one currency over another, the only option is tax rises. 

Youre correct though, it’s going to be the £1000-£10000 price range that will be hit hard, I think your tissots, g shocks etc will still sell easily enough because they are ‘affordable’ for the average Guy.....your Breitling/ omegas/ entry level Rolexes might suffer though....which isn’t necessarily a bad thing...let’s be honest, when you take a step back from our little watch bubble, can you REALLY justify spending £4000 on a bit of metal weighing a few ounces when you can get an F91 for £10 that will tell the time more accurately 

Levels of government, corporate and personal debt have never been higher than they are today - even before the Covid-19 - far higher than in 2008.  Interest rates are at an all-time low of 0.1% Those are the big difference between now and 2008 and indeed the 1930s.  Debt hangs like a dead albatross around the neck of the economy and even more so after the loans dished out to companies now.

The elephant in the room will be corporate failures across the economy with the consequent rise in bad debts and unemployment.

In December, the largest retail group, Watches of Switzerland Group, paid £31.7 million for Fraser Hart 'showrooms' at Brent Cross, Kingston, Stratford and York.  That's alot of £££ when you're closed. It's share price has halved since February.

https://www.watchpro.com/gfk-data-shows-a-slowdown-before-the-real-slump-in-marchs-watch-sales-figures/

The 'alternative' of immediate tax rises will kill the economy - they always do - because they reduce disposable income and reduce VAT receipts, so lowering tax receipts, etc, etc.  In the end debts will either have to paid off by tax payers one way or another (probably very, very slowly) or , in the case of corporate and personal debt, be paid for in higher prices, higher bank charges and interest rates, which also suck disposable income out of the economy.

And this is a global problem of course...

I don't know how things will pan out any more than anyone else, but I';d say it's a case of fingers crossed and hang on for the ride!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Responding cos I don’t want to ‘like’ your post but I agree with a lot of it. I don’t know what the answer is of course....problem is as a worldwide society we are probably too materialistic...the ‘I want now’ financing route rather than saving up and buying when you have the money doesn’t help...nor does the whole keeping up with the Jones’s part of society.

take a look at America and the way they just keep raising the debt ceiling, that part worries me...of course it’s all fictional money. Some radical thinking may have to be used to get over that issue.....hense my first point above...if it’s all fictional money because central banks have just ‘created it’ out of thin air, why can’t they just write it off....but again it would need doing worldwide to stop a certain currency tanking. ...and probably an overly simplistic view on my behalf. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WickerBill said:

Responding cos I don’t want to ‘like’ your post but I agree with a lot of it. I don’t know what the answer is of course....problem is as a worldwide society we are probably too materialistic...the ‘I want now’ financing route rather than saving up and buying when you have the money doesn’t help...nor does the whole keeping up with the Jones’s part of society.

take a look at America and the way they just keep raising the debt ceiling, that part worries me...of course it’s all fictional money. Some radical thinking may have to be used to get over that issue.....hense my first point above...if it’s all fictional money because central banks have just ‘created it’ out of thin air, why can’t they just write it off....but again it would need doing worldwide to stop a certain currency tanking. ...and probably an overly simplistic view on my behalf. 

If you want money creation, just take house prices.  If you bought a £100,000 home in 1995, and sold it for £750,000 in 2019, where has the £650,000 difference come from?  That's (asset) inflation creating money out of thin air, but not by the Government.  And inflation was historically how governments liked to 'remove' debt.

In 1975 we had an inflation rate (CPI) of 24.9%, but interest rates of between 10% and 12%. The following year CPI was 15.1%, interest rates varied between 9% and 15%.  In 1979 CPI was 17.2% with interest rates of between 12% and 17%.  So, you had the bizarre situation where you were better of borrowing as much as possible and spending it because cash was devaluing faster the cost of borrowing - especially so in 1975/6.

The hyper inflation of the mid-1970s meant that the value of historic debts fell sharply, but the problem was savings were destroyed, which made alot of people very poor very quickly and fed the inflation spiral as spending rose, fed further by huge wage increases demanded by, and delivered to, the unions.  The result was the UK had to go to the IMF in 1976 for a humiliating bailout.

Debt haircuts may be a way forward, but trying to get international agreement is very problematic.  The risk also is that banks end up in trouble (again) as a result of bad debts.  And so you go round and round.

 

1 hour ago, WRENCH said:

The economy has been like driving a car flat out down a steep hill with no brakes, air bag, seat belt or insurance, into a brick wall.

I picture a train, with six people in the cab (BoE, ECB, IMF, World Bank, etc), pulling every lever, pushing every button and making no difference as the buffers hove into view...

 

An pessimist is a realistic optimist...:tongue::laugh:

Edited by RTM Boy
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...