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Will watches drop in price !?


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Spoke to a jewellers (new incoming due i today :thumbs_up:)

and I asked if a discount code could apply, they advised all there watches are fully discounted.. yes there price for my new watch is very good .. but they said the sale of watches that we all know and love is dropping drastically due to phones and Apple watches etc with the new generation!!

im looking fwd to the continued price drops of recent .. plus if the VAT due to drop soon?! :whistle:

anyone else some across this ?! 

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Tough to call, a lot of retailers will have taken on debt to get through this or seen their cash reserves dwindle. They need their margin to improve from when they went to sale to repay or recoup what

Correct  

Depends on the brand.    watches are going the same way as horses and internal combustion cars.    Normal quartz watches/ low end brands will decrease in price, I see the likes of Omega,

I suppose the price of a lot of things will drop, if less people can afford them, given the employment market at the moment. Retailers will need cash coming in, they might just off load to webuyanywatch type establishments paying low prices for bulk? Who knows. Everything is up in the air at the moment, if it isn't essential.  

then...:(....prices might go bump? I guess its all going to be driven by desperation for cash flow and cutting loses especially as the Autumn approaches....just beware of the establishments which may make the bulk at very low prices purchases, then trying to sell on at high prices. A bit like webuyanycar etc. 

Edited by Nigelp
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See I think prices will go up once they have got people buying again, they need to recoup their losses, and they can ride off the back of other sectors such as restaurants putting prices up. So we will see sales for a short period and as we enter the next few months leading to Christmas they will go up, you may see more AD,s not having as many stores. Like B and Q have done, people have to travel and more likely to buy when they do. Just my thoughts

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Tough to call, a lot of retailers will have taken on debt to get through this or seen their cash reserves dwindle. They need their margin to improve from when they went to sale to repay or recoup what the last few months has cost them. 
 

If there’s a second wave or the economy doesn’t stabilise and show signs of improvement a lot of people will be battening down the hatches and not purchasing big ticket items or non essentials. 
 

The whole economy is a fine balancing act.
 

 

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It swings and round abouts, different sectors benefit in different economic environments. For example my company works with long term unemployed, NEETS and those facing or have been made redundant, this sector is seeing funding being pumped into it, and as @Nick67+1 those who are seeing disposal income dropping won’t be buying big ticket items, so do you go high and make your margins on those who can afford it or go low and hope bulk sales work, I would go high but I’m not in those sectors so easy to say. 
 

I feel for those in the trades at the moment especially the smaller firms who focus on home improvements. 
 

who knows, I don’t even though I like to have an opinion on it

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Depends on the brand. 
 

watches are going the same way as horses and internal combustion cars. 
 

Normal quartz watches/ low end brands will decrease in price, I see the likes of Omega, Rolex and other luxury brands increasing in price. 
 

going back to comparing to horses/ IC cars. Horses used to be your work horse....now they are seen as a hobby/ luxury item. I see mechanical watches going the same way....you’ll have a good chunk of people happy to use a smart watch with the mechanical watches like Omega, Rolex etc being a luxury item/ hobby horse rather than a work horse

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3 hours ago, Nigelp said:

I suppose the price of a lot of things will drop, if less people can afford them, given the employment market at the moment.

The higher unemployment goes and the longer it sticks at a high level, the bigger the drag on overall demand. No one yet knows what permanent damage or change the lockdown will cause, nor whether demand at certain watch price points will be affected more than others, but there will be some sort of impact.

 

1 hour ago, Nick Parr 1977 said:

See I think prices will go up once they have got people buying again, they need to recoup their losses, and they can ride off the back of other sectors such as restaurants putting prices up. So we will see sales for a short period and as we enter the next few months leading to Christmas they will go up, you may see more AD,s not having as many stores. Like B and Q have done, people have to travel and more likely to buy when they do. Just my thoughts

It could equally go the other way. RRPs rise for the reasons you suggest. But unemployment continues to climb. Overall watch demand drops through the floor as a result as a significant proportion of consumers focus spending on essentials.

ADs closing stores could actually drive demand down further. Spending £50 unseen on a pair of trainers from Amazon which you can easily send back is one thing, spending £2k on a watch you've not seen and would have to travel hours to see in the metal might cause a fair few people not to bother and stick with what's already on their wrist, especially with a very uncertain further couple of years ahead.

1 hour ago, Nick67+1 said:

Tough to call, a lot of retailers will have taken on debt to get through this or seen their cash reserves dwindle. They need their margin to improve from when they went to sale to repay or recoup what the last few months has cost them. 

If there’s a second wave or the economy doesn’t stabilise and show signs of improvement a lot of people will be battening down the hatches and not purchasing big ticket items or non essentials. 

The whole economy is a fine balancing act.

Yes, this.

27 minutes ago, WickerBill said:

Depends on the brand. 

watches are going the same way as horses and internal combustion cars. 

Normal quartz watches/ low end brands will decrease in price, I see the likes of Omega, Rolex and other luxury brands increasing in price. 
 

going back to comparing to horses/ IC cars. Horses used to be your work horse....now they are seen as a hobby/ luxury item. I see mechanical watches going the same way....you’ll have a good chunk of people happy to use a smart watch with the mechanical watches like Omega, Rolex etc being a luxury item/ hobby horse rather than a work horse

And going the way of dedicated cameras too, with sales of digital cameras plummeting.  Only a few years ago camera manufacturers thought the market would continue to grow at the rapid rate it did in the naughties. But the smartphone has completely killed the compact camera market already and is now eating it's way through the interchangeable lens camera market. So, too many manufacturers making too many models in a market that's halving every two years. The virus has made this even worse.

I fear there may be parallels in the watch market going forward...

 

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Marketing, service, and price will all play its part. Retailers will know what they have to shift, and at what margin to cover their overheads. Here's an example of what happened to me this week. I called a couple of local AD's regarding the availability of a watch I'm after. First one; "oh I'm sorry, Mr ********* isn't in today can you call back tomorrow", got the same over the next couple of day's and gave up. Second AD; we're expecting that model in early August, if you'd like to leave your contact details, we'll set one aside, and call you as soon as they are available. Easy to see who is going to get the sale, and that is down to poor staff training. I haven't had a television for over 15 years, and I don't listen to commercial radio, but does the likes of Seiko, or Citizen et all (affordable, and bought by non WIS) ever advertise on these mediums ? I often look at decent stuff on Amazon, and usually the day after, the "suggested for you" bit is full of hideous gaudy junk. So to be presented with such after browsing Glycine, Hamilton, etc perhaps the Mighty Amazon algorithms need a bit of adjustment.

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With £720 billion pounds pumped into the economy the value of our currency looks set to devalue and therefore things like gold and watches will become worth more pounds. 

 

Very long term watches might go the way of pocket watches but in the short to medium I expect the good ones to rise. 

Edited by Daveyboyz
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Supply and demand.

If manufacturers reduce their production facilities and consequently their output, prices will be maintained.

I don't see the point in any manufacturer flooding the market with unsaleable goods.

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The problem with £1000+ watch RRPs ... is that they are nothing to do with supply and demand. They are arbitrary. In times such as these, arbitrary pricing gets called out. My advice is keep your power dry. Late 2020 will be a buyers market. Specifically in the UK, when the flexible furlough finishes in October then many Watch Retailers will have big decisions to make and they will need cash. They will most probably work out that the next quarter could be beneficial to be a net zero profit quarter... I suspect many people who dig deep enough may be able to get luxury watches in the last quarter of 2020 at cost price. Anyone who has run their own business will know exactly what I am getting at...

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The disruptive technology of cell phones and smart watches means that the lower and mid-range watch market is saturated so the mid-level companies are going to get smaller or even disappear. What about the higher-end? With the exception of Rolex most brands are publically listed, directly or indirectly, so are on the hamster wheel with shareholders demanding growth. Growing the numbers of watches is difficult as can be seen in the FH statistics.

Since the year 2000 Swiss watches in the sub CHF200 category have halved in numbers to 11 million, mid-tier watches between of CHF200 to CHF3000 the numbers have been flat over the last 20 years, it is only the > CHF3000 numbers that have increased markedly since 2000 (although since 2015 numbers have been pretty flat).

Sales revenue is also interesting with only the >CHF3000 showing a significant increase from CHF3 billion to CHF14 billion 2000 to 2019, lower price watch sales revenue is flat (although in real terms probably slightly lower) with the sub CHF200 halving in revenue.

I don't entirely agree with the assertion that luxury watch pricing is arbitrary because it is clear that luxury watch companies have a strategy to focus on revenue growth in the >CHF3000 category where the number of watches sold is less important than growth in sales revenue. This is why we have seen massive capital investment and big increases in the price of high end watches because manufacturers would argue you can't have increased sales revenue without luxury and you can't have luxury without exclusivity.

Would increasing production and lowering prices of high end watches work as a strategy? I suspect not as it would erode exclusivity and alienate people who bought watches at a higher price.

Will watch prices fall? In the sub CHF3000 range I think we are already seeing it with heavily discounted offers, in the >CHF3000 range any price reduction will be a temporary expedient to help retailers. 

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4 hours ago, JoT said:

The disruptive technology of cell phones and smart watches means that the lower and mid-range watch market is saturated so the mid-level companies are going to get smaller or even disappear. What about the higher-end? With the exception of Rolex most brands are publically listed, directly or indirectly, so are on the hamster wheel with shareholders demanding growth. Growing the numbers of watches is difficult as can be seen in the FH statistics.

Since the year 2000 Swiss watches in the sub CHF200 category have halved in numbers to 11 million, mid-tier watches between of CHF200 to CHF3000 the numbers have been flat over the last 20 years, it is only the > CHF3000 numbers that have increased markedly since 2000 (although since 2015 numbers have been pretty flat).

Sales revenue is also interesting with only the >CHF3000 showing a significant increase from CHF3 billion to CHF14 billion 2000 to 2019, lower price watch sales revenue is flat (although in real terms probably slightly lower) with the sub CHF200 halving in revenue.

I don't entirely agree with the assertion that luxury watch pricing is arbitrary because it is clear that luxury watch companies have a strategy to focus on revenue growth in the >CHF3000 category where the number of watches sold is less important than growth in sales revenue. This is why we have seen massive capital investment and big increases in the price of high end watches because manufacturers would argue you can't have increased sales revenue without luxury and you can't have luxury without exclusivity.

Would increasing production and lowering prices of high end watches work as a strategy? I suspect not as it would erode exclusivity and alienate people who bought watches at a higher price.

Will watch prices fall? In the sub CHF3000 range I think we are already seeing it with heavily discounted offers, in the >CHF3000 range any price reduction will be a temporary expedient to help retailers. 

I can’t argue with such a detailed and informed piece, but for me being the un initiated to luxury watches are they anymore than just the name, for example Seiko produce seriously high end quality watches for great value, add a Breitling badge and the value shoots up, are these luxury watches truely more than just the brand they invested in to create and that exclusivity. I don’t know the answer as the luxury watch market is not something at this point I can afford to frequent 

Edited by Nick Parr 1977
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I’m trying not to go off topic, but this is relatable. 

 

Im currently looking for a new(ish) second hand car, after reading up, talking to dealerships etc...

The general consensus is: Due to covid and lockdown, many car manufacturers stopped producing cars, therefore the demand for second hand cars has gone up, also this has increased the prices! I suspect the same is happening within the watch industry... 

VAT will be reduced to 5% in the hospitality sector, so retail will stay at 20% for now.

however on the flip side, the high street is going to be suffering more than ever, so I would suspect you would be more likely to get a decent deal or discount on certain things, I’m sure later in the year or early next year that everything should become a little cheaper anyway!

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4 minutes ago, jizzle said:

I’m trying not to go off topic, but this is relatable. 

 

Im currently looking for a new(ish) second hand car, after reading up, talking to dealerships etc...

The general consensus is: Due to covid and lockdown, many car manufacturers stopped producing cars, therefore the demand for second hand cars has gone up, also this has increased the prices! I suspect the same is happening within the watch industry... 

VAT will be reduced to 5% in the hospitality sector, so retail will stay at 20% for now.

however on the flip side, the high street is going to be suffering more than ever, so I would suspect you would be more likely to get a decent deal or discount on certain things, I’m sure later in the year or early next year that everything should become a little cheaper anyway!

I wouldn’t take much heed on the car advice, equally with Covid people won’t want to be buying big ticket items so as a buyer you have the power as they have the stock.

To be fair it’s that age old buyer/seller mentality we have all been there, I know I have when I am selling it’s all the market is strong, blah blah blah and when I’m buying it’s all well I’m here now ready to buy, not many people out there buying blah blah blah. 
 

its going to swings and roundabouts, and the overall market will dictate demand and supply, I think we all have our fingers crossed as you will be with your car. Also if it isn’t electric play on that

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I can’t argue with such a detailed and informed piece, but for me being the un initiated to luxury watches are they anymore than just the name, for example Seiko produce seriously high end quality watches for great value, add a Breitling badge and the value shoots up, are these luxury watches truely more than just the brand they invested in to create and that exclusivity. I don’t know the answer as the luxury watch market is not something at this point I can afford to frequent 

Name me a Seiko model that’s seriously high end quality.

The Emperor Tuna I have is north of £2,500 and the models with the high end movements are even pricier.

The cheaper Seiko models (divers at least) have awful QC if you look at them closely. Bezels not lining up correctly and haphazard timekeeping. I have the mini Tuna and mini Turtle models and they’re still overpriced for what you get.
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2 hours ago, Igerswis said:


Name me a Seiko model that’s seriously high end quality.

The Emperor Tuna I have is north of £2,500 and the models with the high end movements are even pricier.

The cheaper Seiko models (divers at least) have awful QC if you look at them closely. Bezels not lining up correctly and haphazard timekeeping. I have the mini Tuna and mini Turtle models and they’re still overpriced for what you get.

The Grand Seiko Hi Beat I would have said

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8 hours ago, Igerswis said:


Name me a Seiko model that’s seriously high end quality.

The Emperor Tuna I have is north of £2,500 and the models with the high end movements are even pricier.

The cheaper Seiko models (divers at least) have awful QC if you look at them closely. Bezels not lining up correctly and haphazard timekeeping. I have the mini Tuna and mini Turtle models and they’re still overpriced for what you get.

Did you mean to say a Seiko that’s high end and great value for money?  
 

Most Grand Seiko watches are at the same price if not more than an Omega, Rolex, Breitling.  There is a thread on TZ a few years back where someone had a GS and the batons were a very poor quality metal.  
 

I have often wondered why Citizen don’t get the same level of cult following as Seiko when their higher end watches have a better spec than Seiko.

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We had a quick walk into town yesterday and almost every watch in the main jewellers window was marked down. To be fair no real high end stuff just usual fashion brands along side Seiko/Citizens and the like. 

 

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The Grand Seiko Hi Beat I would have said

But they’re almost the same price as a Breitling. So stamping on another brand isn’t going to make a difference
Did you mean to say a Seiko that’s high end and great value for money?  
 
Most Grand Seiko watches are at the same price if not more than an Omega, Rolex, Breitling.  There is a thread on TZ a few years back where someone had a GS and the batons were a very poor quality metal.  
 
I have often wondered why Citizen don’t get the same level of cult following as Seiko when their higher end watches have a better spec than Seiko.


Nick was saying Seiko are great quality and value and had someone stamped another brand on it then it would cost much more.

My point was that most Seiko aren’t great quality and the ones that are cost a substantial amount of money.


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