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Milsub fetches new record for Fellows


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It was a full spec 5517 with predictable participants bidding at the later stages....at least two from North West England!

Typically one might expect such a high profile result to shake one or two more out of the woodwork.

It is argued that such watches realise significantly more when one of the few trusted dealers sells one to an interested client, but as someone who so far has largely only collected mil subs I felt the result was respectable.

Where do we feel a most "basic" mil sub 5513 is now? I would suggest that a typical, honest one with a correct, matching case-back and nice (T) dial but with incorrect, civilian hands (mercedes) and bezel insert (15 minute) might sell for around £50,000.

Anyone who says that 1970s ff mil sub could have been supplied originally with civilian hands or insert is, in my opinion, mistaken.

H

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11 minutes ago, WRENCH said:

https://www.sothebys.com/en/auctions/ecatalogue/2018/important-watches-ge1804/lot.238.html

What do you do with this watch once you've bought it, put it in a safe and gloat ?

Having enjoyed the research and hunt involved in buying a correct one for the right price, wear it whenever you want and enjoy the fact that if ever you want to change to something different - who knows? a Comex, a Paul Newman, an Explorer dial Submariner or a JCK - you have a bargaining chip whose value will move broadly commensurately with their prices. If some see them purely as investments, I suppose that's up to them. Can we criticise them for that? Can't think of many people I know with this type of watch who aren't genuinely passionate about them.

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2 hours ago, WRENCH said:

https://www.sothebys.com/en/auctions/ecatalogue/2018/important-watches-ge1804/lot.238.html

What do you do with this watch once you've bought it, put it in a safe and gloat ?

Wear it on holidays and high days, plenty of old classic cars running around over the summer that are worth a ton more than that so why not, I probably would draw the line at wearing it to work though. 

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:

An interesting article on Subs over years. 

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/rolex-submariner-reference-points

 

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12 minutes ago, BondandBigM said:

Wear it on holidays and high days, plenty of old classic cars running around over the summer that are worth a ton more than that so why not, I probably would draw the line at wearing it to work though. 

:laughing2dw: :laughing2dw:

 

 

I can remember sitting at military surplus auctions in the late 70's and 80's and seeing these things being sold. There are/were other watches that do the same job, but haven't attracted the same value added hype. There is nothing extraordinary about a Milsub other than the myth and prices they attract. Both of the people I know that have them didn't pay much, and they'll be left to be sold and divided up on their "moving on". 

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Just now, WRENCH said:

I can remember sitting at military surplus auctions in the late 70's and 80's and seeing these things being sold. There are/were other watches that do the same job, but haven't attracted the same value added hype. There is nothing extraordinary about a Milsub other than the myth and prices they attract. Both of the people I know that have them didn't pay much, and they'll be left to be sold and divided up on their "moving on". 

Yep I remember years ago a mate of mine was into military old stock seeing an advert for a military surplus place in a magazine he had and they were knocking out old watches, I seem to remember Omegas but not sure about Rolex though, for buttons. Most of them looked pretty battered.

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18 minutes ago, BondandBigM said:

Most of them looked pretty battered.

I remember someone getting an assorted box for £100. Pride and Clarke were selling "Dirty Dozen" watches in good order for £8. I was really miffed at having to fork out £175 for one at the Barras around 20 years ago. :laughing2dw:

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In the 1980s you could buy a Rolex mil sub for £50 from a tray in the counter at Motosail in Weymouth. One of mine came from a chap whose first one stopped in a week. When he took it back the shop-keeper just plonked the tray on top of the counter and invited him to swap it for another.

Now the very best of them is a £200,000 watch.

Who may deride the man now paying that much for such a watch because he sees aesthetic appeal, rarity and sometimes provenance which support it? A full specification mil sub has unique, highly visible features, was made in reasonably well-established numbers and survives in much smaller quantities. Compared with much more common models over which people fight, it may be thought that a mil sub is inexpensive.

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39 minutes ago, Haywood_Milton said:

In the 1980s you could buy a Rolex mil sub for £50 from a tray in the counter at Motosail in Weymouth. One of mine came from a chap whose first one stopped in a week. When he took it back the shop-keeper just plonked the tray on top of the counter and invited him to swap it for another.

Now the very best of them is a £200,000 watch.

Who may deride the man now paying that much for such a watch because he sees aesthetic appeal, rarity and sometimes provenance which support it? A full specification mil sub has unique, highly visible features, was made in reasonably well-established numbers and survives in much smaller quantities. Compared with much more common models over which people fight, it may be thought that a mil sub is inexpensive.

Me. I'll deride the man. :yes:  It's now like fighting over tulip bulbs that cost the same as a house...:crazy5vh: and nothing new...

220px-Mackay_1841_edition_front_page.png

 

Or, if you prefer, I'll reference a more recent popular film;

EL: "We are going to be spending an obscene amount of money in here. So, we are going to need alot more help sucking up to us because that's what we really like. You understand me?"

Mr H: "Sir, if I may say so, you're in the right store...and the right city, for that matter."

Mr H: "Excuse me, sir. Exactly how obscene an amount of money were you talking about just then? Profane, or really offensive?"

EL: "Really offensive"

Mr H: "I like you so much."

 

Fellows' cut from the buyer's and the seller's premium will be huge.

People can spend their money how they like, but it's still madness. :biggrin:

 

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Those gobbets of text don't illustrate the same argument --- the "Pretty Woman" extract being especially off course --- and they do not definitively reflect the nature of all markets. Tulip bulbs may almost "grow on trees," whereas some watches were made in known, limited numbers and we remain in a world where there are growing numbers of people interested, informed and capable of purchasing them. Supply and demand has shaped the growth in prices over twenty years and at many stages detractors have previously described the market as stupid. So be it, but the bidders against whom I was competing on Monday include a number of shrewd people who are neither green nor reckless, adjectives which in respect of vintage Rolex I hope may equally not apply to me.

As an "outsider" in the fine art market, I might not understand what value someone sees in a £10million painting but I accept that this most likely reflects my own naivety in the subject. It is disappointing that I do not have the means to play at that level, but that's another matter!

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1 hour ago, Haywood_Milton said:

Those gobbets of text don't illustrate the same argument --- the "Pretty Woman" extract being especially off course --- and they do not definitively reflect the nature of all markets. Tulip bulbs may almost "grow on trees," whereas some watches were made in known, limited numbers and we remain in a world where there are growing numbers of people interested, informed and capable of purchasing them. Supply and demand has shaped the growth in prices over twenty years and at many stages detractors have previously described the market as stupid. So be it, but the bidders against whom I was competing on Monday include a number of shrewd people who are neither green nor reckless, adjectives which in respect of vintage Rolex I hope may equally not apply to me.

As an "outsider" in the fine art market, I might not understand what value someone sees in a £10million painting but I accept that this most likely reflects my own naivety in the subject. It is disappointing that I do not have the means to play at that level, but that's another matter!

Happen to agree with you.

It is hoped that passion will be the sole motivator for the price/purchase of these items.

Notwithstanding, like vintage vehicles, firearms, toys, scientific instruments, they carry advantageous tax benefits.

 

Why not?
‘Many’ will be have been gouged of their hard earned for the majority of their life, & now feel it’s time to indulge themselves!

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41 minutes ago, Haywood_Milton said:

Those gobbets of text don't illustrate the same argument --- the "Pretty Woman" extract being especially off course --- and they do not definitively reflect the nature of all markets. Tulip bulbs may almost "grow on trees," whereas some watches were made in known, limited numbers and we remain in a world where there are growing numbers of people interested, informed and capable of purchasing them. Supply and demand has shaped the growth in prices over twenty years and at many stages detractors have previously described the market as stupid. So be it, but the bidders against whom I was competing on Monday include a number of shrewd people who are neither green nor reckless, adjectives which in respect of vintage Rolex I hope may equally not apply to me.

As an "outsider" in the fine art market, I might not understand what value someone sees in a £10million painting but I accept that this most likely reflects my own naivety in the subject. It is disappointing that I do not have the means to play at that level, but that's another matter!

I'm sorry you're having difficulty understanding my point, and clearly you're not familiar with the details of the Tulip mania and the perceived rarity factors that helped create the first well documented asset bubble and crash, so let me clarify my point.

£140,000 + buyer's premium is a "really offensive" amount of money to spend on a stainless steel watch that was in the 1970s merely MOD standard issue equipment.  This is an example of speculative asset bubble for something with virtually no intrinsic value (qv a tulip bulb). Price rises are based entirely on sentiment. Reading on social media that Rolex prices are rising and will carry on doing so forever is not being "informed". It's an irrational belief that the bubble cannot collapse and ever higher returns are certain in a perpetual positive feedback mechanism. Another well-documented phenomenon.

The sociological drivers for ultra rich people who can afford the sums involved revolve around the social norms created in the environment of the ultra rich - eg the Hot Hand Fallacy.  Participants in the market for Rolexes tend to spend more because they perceive themselves to be richer; in microeconomic terms it's the Wealth Effect where the Rolex is a Velben Good. This creates the self-feeding psychological Bandwagon Effect.

The "shrewd" person was in fact the one who picked up a MilSub for £50 in 1981.

The difference with, say, a painting is that the painting is literally a one off, even if several versions exist, they are all different - even a fake is different. But I know enough about antiques to point out that what is collectable or valuable today can quickly lose popularity and so you end up with "yesterday's antique", worth a fraction of what you might have paid for it 10 or 20 years ago, as any antiques dealer or auctioneer will tell you.

As with all 'investments', past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Luckily I'm not disappointed that I'm not wealthy and cannot afford buy a Rolex. Nor does it matter to me what the ultra wealthy do with their money; someone who can spend £140k + £29,400 buyer's premium (incl VAT) on a MilSub is exactly the kind of person would can afford to lose £1m at the casino in one night and it wouldn't matter much to them.  I wish them, and you, well. :yes:

But this is still madness. :thumbsup:

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1 hour ago, Haywood_Milton said:

We will disagree on aspects of the long-term market, values and how much history, rarity and provenance should be considered, but may we enjoy this together ?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/f10A1vl.jpg[/img]

Hey, a great watch is a great watch.

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