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Price and availability changing weekly. Is this the pre-Christmas Con?


Dilly
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Hi I am probably best described as an affordable watch collector. I have one or two possibly worth £1500 ish which are vintage but I have bought predominantly Hamilton, Seiko, Smiths, Glycine etc you know the ones. Since working from home I have noticed my interest hasnt really changed in watches but Im wearing the same watch much longer. Ive got a Seiko Save the Ocean on at the moment and I think I have worn this everyday for a month or so. This was unheard of previously, I would have worn a different watch/strap combination daily. 

I am after a black everyday watch, was thinking the Seiko Tuna Black n Gold perhaps or the Black Series. I have the Save the Ocean one and like the Tuna but open to others aswell. 

Finally my point. I paid £240 for my Save the ocean Tuna and the Black n Gold one was always available at the same price. My Save the ocean I am seeing online up to £600!! The Black n Gold I cant find. 

There seems very little of the previous bargains you would see that sometimes you just couldnt resist. 

Do you think we are seeing the Coivd, Brexit rise or a lift prior to Christmas so they can be on SALE!! I bought a couple of watches Black Friday type deals I think 2019, last year the pre Christmas deals were non existant. Its looking like this year might be even worse, no deals and sky high prices. 

Cheers

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3 minutes ago, Dilly said:

Do you think we are seeing the Covid, Brexit rise or a lift prior to Christmas so they can be on SALE!!

Uncertain times on all fronts.

I would say it could be pre-Christmas price hike so they can discount, but there is a supply issue on materials and this may have a knock on for the watch industry. lots of parts come from China and we have all seen the problems they are have with a fragile housing/investment market, and they are having major problems with power outages.

Getting back to watches...I know Seiko are trying to push their products up in price, but I hope there are some bargains as I plan to buy something also, but I am going to be selling a load of my watches as I need a serious cull.

I hope you manage to get the Seiko you're after...fingers crossed.

I know that doesn't answer your question, but I don't think there is any one exact answer to this one.

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I took one of my watches to a local repairer for a service and asked about time scales. He said it would be one to two months, as getting parts is difficult, with the shortage of HGV drivers. I had to smile, imagining a 40 ton six wheeler rolling up in the street and off-loading a pallette load of stems and mainsprings into his little shop. But I suppose he meant the wholesalers have the problem, though I've had no problem getting the bits I need for tinkering. Anyway, two months was his turn around time well before Covid and I know I'll have to phone him to ask if it's ready, otherwise I'll probably never see it again. :biggrin:

Covid is so last year. "It's the HGV drivers, innit," is the excuse du jour.

 

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The run up to Christmas normally see less discounts.

Also it depends on the availability of the model you are after, Save the Ocean for example was a special edition so as availability declines you will see less discounts.

As mentioned Seiko prices have taken a significant jump upwards and have been ramping up since about 2018, some models took a big jump in 2020, the Sumo and Tuna for example

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I must admit that if I look at Spanish online watch prices typically they are at RRP and the psychologically larger Euro number is enough to dampen the excitement.

I mostly still look at the US selling sites for my new bargains although I am yet to buy anything from there since being here.

My best buy, perhaps of all time, was my 2nd hand Alpina from our very own forum - good price, as new condition and painless experience - maybe there is something in that :)

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Seiko Black & Gold Tuna for £378 (10% discount code "Take10")

https://www.watchnation.com/product/seiko-prospex-tuna-sne577p1/?

Other options for a blacked out everyday watch:

1) Cheaper than the Seiko, but will no doubt put me in the cross hairs of the fashion police.

https://www.fraserhart.co.uk/sale/hugo-boss-ocean-edition-black-steel-48mm-men-s-watch?

Screenshot_20211005-131301_Chrome.thumb.jpg.3cf734780bb1b2293c186d22c4bddb49.jpg

2) Cheaper still and a bit of a bargain imo.

https://www.houseofwatches.co.uk/citizen-eco-drive-military-black-fabric-strap-watch-at0205-01e?

22-40-786_1.jpg

3) Back up around the Seiko money, but a nicer watch imo, all be it with a SS case.

https://www.cwsellors.co.uk/products/certina-watch-ds-action-chrono-quartz-c032-417-17-051-00-crt-399?

CRT-399_Certina_Watch_DS_Action_Chrono_Q

Non-chrono options:

https://www.cwsellors.co.uk/products/certina-ds-first-gent-ceramic-c0144101605100-watch-crt-200?

crt-200-certina-watch-ds-first-gent-cera

 

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If you're not at desperation point to buy, it's worth searching Amazon frequently, and bookmarking your search, don't put it in favourites or basket, also do a Google image search for Amazon items because for whatever reason, this sometimes throws up stuff that doesn't appear on the Amazon site search, and also there can be differences between using and not using the Amazon app in what you search for. Most of the decent bargains I've had have been bought off Amazon, fortuitously. 

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2 hours ago, spinynorman said:

I took one of my watches to a local repairer for a service and asked about time scales. He said it would be one to two months,

Many. many, years ago my mate had an Omega.  It was running OK, but he wanted to get it serviced.  He contacted Omega and they said it would be 6 weeks.  He didn't want to be without his watch for that long so he said, "Put a note on the "watches to be serviced" shelf and call me when it's the next but one to be serviced.  I'll then bring it in."  They absolutely refused to play that game, so he was without it for ages.

Edited by Eaglegale
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As a business we buy an awful lot direct from the Far East, mainly China. We used to factor in 5 weeks for delivery by boat now it’s 8 plus. Our projected intake figures get downgraded each week, boats can’t get into ports, because the ports are overwhelmed. Shipping rates have literally rocketed, we we’re paying hundreds per container now it’s thousands. 
 

We’re getting stock delivered in old, leaking, second rate containers because that’s all they have available. We can’t get stock from the wholesalers we buy from in the UK because they’re in (or on) the same boat. 
 

I was talking to my mate who works in engineering a couple of days ago, they have ordered parts which are going to take months to get delivered. 
 

I know as a retail business if we’re running low on stock to try and make sure we have a workable stock level we won’t discount and even raise the price to slow down demand a little. We’ll probably still sell the stock, just with a higher margin. 

It’s just the way it is at the minute. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Nick67+1 said:

As a business we buy an awful lot direct from the Far East, mainly China. We used to factor in 5 weeks for delivery by boat now it’s 8 plus. Our projected intake figures get downgraded each week, boats can’t get into ports, because the ports are overwhelmed. Shipping rates have literally rocketed, we we’re paying hundreds per container now it’s thousands. 
 

We’re getting stock delivered in old, leaking, second rate containers because that’s all they have available. We can’t get stock from the wholesalers we buy from in the UK because they’re in (or on) the same boat. 
 

I was talking to my mate who works in engineering a couple of days ago, they have ordered parts which are going to take months to get delivered. 
 

I know as a retail business if we’re running low on stock to try and make sure we have a workable stock level we won’t discount and even raise the price to slow down demand a little. We’ll probably still sell the stock, just with a higher margin. 

It’s just the way it is at the minute. 

 

I have some clients that import, one imports farm machinery from the far east, they've seen the shiping price per container rise from around £2k to around £20k, and given that the margin in a container gave them about £15k profit on the stock they have become effectively non economically viable as a business overnight. They can't hike their prices to cover the additional shipping costs.

Something will have to give, I'm just not sure what.

 

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There is a large degree of retailers doing all they can to raise margins.  There is an element of trying to make up for losses during Covid, but also reflects manufacturers pushing up SRPs as overall demand for 'normal' watches, especially at the cheaper end, declines as the smartwatch marches on, so they're shoring up their profits.  One reason why Seiko releases 'limited edition' after 'limited edition'; to charge more and put pressure on collectors to buy before they 'run out'.

There are definitely global supply chain problems, resulting in a large part from the consequences of lockdowns.  Only today the FT ran a story that despite China's falling out with Australia, it was unloading Aussie coal because factories are having to go slow because of electricity blackouts; "China unloads Australian coal despite import ban amid power shortage" - it's behind the FT paywall, I'm afraid, but the FT claims that in some Chinese provinces power rationing has meant factories operating for just 2 days per week.

https://www.ft.com/content/eae7454f-60de-4b76-a2b5-b61a2b63ee47

Energy prices worldwide are rising sharply, which feeds inflation.

A huge number of watches and, significantly, watch parts come from China, many of which find their way into watches made in Switzerland, Japan and elsewhere in the far east.

Since so few watches are made (or, more correctly, assembled), in the EU, Brexit is really only possibly an issue for secondhand imports/exports, not that it is possible to attribute even that given the gargantuan impact of the pandemic that has subsumed everything.  Any UK logistics issues are timeshift only.

Looking ahead we need to remember that manufacturers have been pushing up SRPs significantly above inflation for the last decade.  ATM discounting is largely confined to less popular models ie stock that isn't moving, or discontinued models that didn't sell or bulk sell offs.  I would be surprised if that changed before Xmas, especially if overall sales are strong anyway, or there is a stock shortage.

However, if people simply don't buy in anything like the volumes hoped for at the higher prices in the run up to Xmas, then come the January sales there will be alot of unsold stock to offload and, consequently, bargains are far more likely.  That might all depend on how much cash people feel they can splash given rising inflation, especially gas, electric, petrol, diesel, food and other essentials.

But I doubt that Sub or Pepsi GMT will fall into that category anytime soon, unless the scales fall from the eyes of the great unwashed...:laugh::laugh:

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46 minutes ago, RTM Boy said:

There is a large degree of retailers doing all they can to raise margins.  There is an element of trying to make up for losses during Covid, but also reflects manufacturers pushing up SRPs as overall demand for 'normal' watches, especially at the cheaper end, declines as the smartwatch marches on, so they're shoring up their profits.  One reason why Seiko releases 'limited edition' after 'limited edition'; to charge more and put pressure on collectors to buy before they 'run out'.

There are definitely global supply chain problems, resulting in a large part from the consequences of lockdowns.  Only today the FT ran a story that despite China's falling out with Australia, it was unloading Aussie coal because factories are having to go slow because of electricity blackouts; "China unloads Australian coal despite import ban amid power shortage" - it's behind the FT paywall, I'm afraid, but the FT claims that in some Chinese provinces power rationing has meant factories operating for just 2 days per week.

https://www.ft.com/content/eae7454f-60de-4b76-a2b5-b61a2b63ee47

Energy prices worldwide are rising sharply, which feeds inflation.

A huge number of watches and, significantly, watch parts come from China, many of which find their way into watches made in Switzerland, Japan and elsewhere in the far east.

Since so few watches are made (or, more correctly, assembled), in the EU, Brexit is really only possibly an issue for secondhand imports/exports, not that it is possible to attribute even that given the gargantuan impact of the pandemic that has subsumed everything.  Any UK logistics issues are timeshift only.

Looking ahead we need to remember that manufacturers have been pushing up SRPs significantly above inflation for the last decade.  ATM discounting is largely confined to less popular models ie stock that isn't moving, or discontinued models that didn't sell or bulk sell offs.  I would be surprised if that changed before Xmas, especially if overall sales are strong anyway, or there is a stock shortage.

However, if people simply don't buy in anything like the volumes hoped for at the higher prices in the run up to Xmas, then come the January sales there will be alot of unsold stock to offload and, consequently, bargains are far more likely.  That might all depend on how much cash people feel they can splash given rising inflation, especially gas, electric, petrol, diesel, food and other essentials.

But I doubt that Sub or Pepsi GMT will fall into that category anytime soon, unless the scales fall from the eyes of the great unwashed...:laugh::laugh:

I don't think we've seen what effect the rise in gas prices is going to have quite yet, it can take quite a while to filter down. There's a lot of uncertainty out there.

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